CoreLogic Releases First HPI Forecast Validation Report

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October 19, 2017, Irvine, Calif. –

    • Analysis Reveals 12-Month, National Forecast is Within 0.7 Percent of Actual HPI Increase
    • New Report Also Quantifies Forecast Accuracy for Key Metro

CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its first CoreLogic HPI Forecast Validation Report that publicly compares its 12-month CoreLogic HPI Forecast to the actual CoreLogic HPI Index. The first report compares the changes in national and key Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSA)-level forecasts made in June 2016 to the actual HPI released in August of 2017, which includes data through June 2017. Going forward, CoreLogic will publish this report twice a year.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. National values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighing indices according to the number of housing units for each state.

The first validation report shows:

  • The national forecast prediction of a 5.4 percent increase was within 0.7 percent of the 6.1 percent increase of the HPI for the 12-month period ending in June 2017.
  • The most accurate CBSA-level forecast was for the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ area, which at 6.6 percent came within 0.4 percent of the actual HPI increase of 6.2 percent
  • The widest CBSA gap was in Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA with an 8.4 percent under-estimation of actual increase (14.3 percent vs. 5.9 percent). Among other factors, the variance in this over-valued CBSA was due to unexpected acceleration in prices in early 2017 after a price deceleration earlier in 2016.
  • The average absolute difference between the actual HPI 12-month increases and the forecasted 12-month increase for the 50 largest CBSAs was 2.5 percent.
  • Among the 15 most accurately forecasted CBSAs, the average difference was 0.9 percent, and the range was between 0.4 percent and 1.5 percent.

“Our clients leverage the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts to price portfolios, conduct stress testing, allocate cash reserves and conduct a host of other critical business functions,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “With the introduction of the biannual HPI Forecast Validation Report, users can now get specific insight into the degree of accuracy of our HPI forecasts at the national and CBSA levels.”

15 Most Accurately Forecasted CBSAs

Market

Population

12-Month HPI Change

12-Month Forecast Change

Difference

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ

         4,337,542

6.2%

6.6%

0.4%

Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN

         1,931,182

4.7%

5.2%

0.5%

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

         4,619,268

3.6%

4.1%

0.5%

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

         2,851,235

7.8%

7.3%

0.6%

St. Louis, MO-IL

         2,797,737

3.5%

4.1%

0.6%

Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI

         1,565,368

4.7%

3.9%

0.8%

Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN

         2,131,793

4.4%

5.2%

0.8%

Columbus, OH

         1,948,188

6.0%

5.2%

0.8%

Jacksonville, FL

         1,380,995

6.3%

5.4%

0.9%

New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ

       14,125,810

3.8%

4.9%

1.1%

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

         2,753,396

2.6%

4.0%

1.3%

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

         2,226,835

7.8%

6.4%

1.3%

Cleveland-Elyria, OH

         2,067,490

3.6%

4.9%

1.4%

San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX

         2,239,222

5.2%

3.8%

1.4%

Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL

         7,312,675

3.8%

5.3%

1.5%

Source: CoreLogic June 2017

 About CoreLogic

CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company's combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI, CoreLogic HPI Forecast and HPI are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.