CoreLogic Reports 759,000 US Properties Regained Equity in the Second Quarter of 2015
September 15, 2015, Irvine, Calif. –
––4.4 Million Properties Remain in Negative Equity as of Q2 2015—
CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider, today released a new analysis showing 759,000 properties regained equity in the second quarter of 2015, bringing the total number of mortgaged residential properties with equity at the end of Q2 2015 to approximately 45.9 million, or 91 percent of all mortgaged properties. Nationwide, borrower equity increased year over year by $691 billion in Q2 2015. The total number of mortgaged residential properties with negative equity is now at 4.4 million, or 8.7 percent of all mortgaged properties. This compares to 5.1 million homes, or 10.2 percent, that had negative equity in Q1 2015*, a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 1.5 percentage points. Compared with 5.4 million homes, or 10.9 percent, reported for Q2 2014, the number of underwater homes has decreased year over year by 1.1 million, or 19.4 percent.
Negative equity, often referred to as “underwater” or “upside down,” refers to borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Negative equity can occur because of a decline in home value, an increase in mortgage debt or a combination of both.
For the homes in negative equity status, the national aggregate value of negative equity was $309.5 billion at the end of Q2 2015, falling approximately $28.5 billion from $338 billion in Q1 2015. On a year-over-year basis, the value of negative equity declined overall from $350 billion in Q2 2014, representing a decrease of 11.6 percent in 12 months.
Of the more than 50 million residential properties with a mortgage, approximately 9 million, or 17.8 percent, have less than 20 percent equity (referred to as “under-equitied”), and 1.1 million, or 2.3 percent, have less than 5 percent equity (referred to as near-negative equity). Borrowers who are “under-equitied” may have a more difficult time refinancing their existing homes or obtaining new financing to sell and buy another home due to underwriting constraints. Borrowers with near-negative equity are considered at risk of moving into negative equity if home prices fall.
“Home price appreciation and foreclosure completions both reduce the number of homeowners with negative equity, the latter because most homeowners who lost homes through foreclosure had some level of negative equity," said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. "Between June 2014 and June 2015, the CoreLogic national Home Price Index (HPI) rose 5.6 percent and we reported the number of homes completing foreclosure proceedings exceeded one-half million. Both of these factors helped reduce the number of homeowners with negative equity by one million over the year ending in June.”
“For much of the country, the negative equity epidemic is lifting. The biggest reason for this improvement has been the relentless rise in home prices over the past three years which reflects increasing money flows into housing and a lack of housing stock in many markets,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “CoreLogic predicts home prices to rise an additional 4.7 percent over the next year, and if this happens, 800,000 homeowners could regain positive equity by July 2016.”
Highlights as of Q2 2015:
- Nevada had the highest percentage of mortgaged residential properties in negative equity at 20.6 percent, followed by Florida (18.5 percent), Arizona (15.4 percent), Rhode Island (13.8 percent) and Illinois (13.1 percent). Combined, these five states accounted for 31.7 percent of negative equity in the U.S.
- Texas had the highest percentage of mortgaged residential properties in positive equity at 97.9 percent, followed by Alaska (97.6 percent), Hawaii (97.5 percent), Montana (97.2 percent) and Colorado (96.7 percent).
- Of the 25 largest Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) based on mortgage count, Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL had the highest percentage of mortgaged residential properties in negative equity at 20.2 percent, followed by Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ (15.4 percent), Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL (15.3 percent), Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA (12.3 percent) and Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI (11.8 percent).
- Of the same largest 25 CBSAs, Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX had the highest percentage of mortgaged properties with positive equity at 98.1 percent, followed by Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA (97.8 percent), Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX (97.8 percent), Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA (97.5 percent) and Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO (97.5 percent).
- Of the total $309 billion in negative equity, first liens without home equity loans accounted for $168 billion, or 54 percent, in aggregate negative equity, while first liens with home equity loans accounted for $142 billion, or 46 percent.
- Approximately 2.6 million underwater borrowers hold first liens without home equity loans. The average mortgage balance for this group of borrowers is $239,000 and the average underwater amount is $64,000.
- Approximately 1.7 million underwater borrowers hold both first and second liens. The average mortgage balance for this group of borrowers is $303,000 and the average underwater amount is $82,000.
- The bulk of positive equity for mortgaged properties is concentrated at the high end of the housing market. For example, 95 percent of homes valued at greater than $200,000 have equity, compared with 87 percent of homes valued at less than $200,000.
*Q1 2015 data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
The full Equity Report with additional charts is available: CoreLogic Q2 2015 Equity Report
For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the CoreLogic Insights Blog: http://www.corelogic.com/blog.
The amount of equity for each property is determined by comparing the estimated current value of the property against the mortgage debt outstanding (MDO). If the MDO is greater than the estimated value, then the property is determined to be in a negative equity position. If the estimated value is greater than the MDO, then the property is determined to be in a positive equity position. The data is first generated at the property level and aggregated to higher levels of geography. CoreLogic data includes 49 million properties with a mortgage, which accounts for more than 85 percent of all mortgages in the U.S. CoreLogic uses its public record data as the source of the MDO, which includes both first-mortgage liens and second liens, and is adjusted for amortization and home equity utilization in order to capture the true level of MDO for each property. The calculations are not based on sampling, but rather on the full data set to avoid potential adverse selection due to sampling. The current value of the property is estimated using a suite of proprietary CoreLogic valuation techniques, including valuation models and the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI). Only data for mortgaged residential properties that have a current estimated value is included. There are several states or jurisdictions where the public record, current value or mortgage coverage is thin. These instances account for fewer than 5 percent of the total U.S. population.
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CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider. The company's combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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