CoreLogic Reports December 2014 Home Price Index

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Bill Campbell
Campbell Lewis
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Lori Guyton
Crosby-Volmer International Communications
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February 03, 2015, Irvine, Calif. –

  • Home Prices Up 5 Percent Year Over Year for December 2014

  • Home Prices Expected to Be Flat Month Over Month in January 2015

CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider, today released its December 2014 CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) which shows that home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 5 percent in December 2014 compared to December 2013. This change represents 34 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, fell by 0.1 percent in December 2014 compared to November 2014.*

Twenty-seven states and the District of Columbia are at or within 10 percent of their peak. Three states showed year-over-year home price depreciation, including distressed sales, in December; these states were Maryland (-0.7 percent), Vermont (-0.9 percent) and Connecticut (-2.2 percent).

Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 4.9 percent in December 2014 compared to December 2013 and increased 0.1 percent month over month compared to November 2014. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase 0.1 percent month over month from December 2014 to January 2015. Full-year 2015 (December to December) increase is projected to be 4.8 percent**. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are also expected to increase by 0.1 percent month over month from December 2014 to January 2015 and increase by 4.5 percent** year over year from December 2014 to December 2015. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a monthly projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

“For the full year of 2014, home prices increased 7.4 percent, down from an 11.1-percent increase in 2013,” said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic. “Nationally, home price growth moderated and stabilized at 5 percent the last four months of the year. The moderation can be clearly seen at the state level, with Colorado, Texas and New York at the high end of appreciation, ending the year with increases of about 8 percent. This contrasts with previous appreciation rates in the double digits—for instance, Nevada and California which experienced increases of more than 20 percent earlier in 2014.”

“Nationally, home price appreciation took a pause in November and December 2014 and we expect a slow start to 2015,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “As the year progresses, we expect upward pressure as low inventories and more first-time buyers drive up home prices.”

Highlights as of December 2014:

  • Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Colorado (+8.4 percent), Texas (+7.8 percent), New York (+7.6 percent), Nevada (+7.3 percent) and Michigan (+7.2 percent).
  • Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: New York (+8.0 percent), Colorado (+7.8 percent), Massachusetts (+7.2 percent), Texas (+7.1 percent) and Nevada (+7.1 percent).
  • Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to December 2014) was -13.4 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -9.6 percent.
  • Including distressed sales, the five-year HPI change (from December 2009 to December 2014) was 18.9 percent.
  • The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were: Nevada (-36 percent), Florida (-33.5 percent), Arizona (-29.5 percent), Rhode Island (-29.1 percent) and Connecticut (-25.2 percent).
  • Including distressed sales, the U.S. has experienced 34 consecutive months of year-over-year increases; however, the national increase is no longer posting double-digits.
  • Eighty-nine of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in December 2014. The 11 CBSAs that showed year-over-year declines were: Worcester, MA-CT (-2.5 percent); Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT (-2.3 percent); Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD (-1.9 percent); Memphis, TN-MS-AR (-1.1 percent); McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX (-1.0 percent); New Haven-Milford, CT (-0.9 percent); Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR (-0.8 percent); Winston-Salem, NC (-0.6 percent); Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT (-0.4 percent); Rochester, NY (-0.2 percent) and Wilmington, DE-MD-NJ (-0.03 percent).

*November data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.

** The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index including distressed sales and a +/- 1.9 percent margin of error for the index excluding distressed sales.

Full-month December 2014 national data can be found at the Home Price Index Report page.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI™ incorporates more than 30 years’ worth of repeat sales transactions, representing more than 65 million observations sourced from CoreLogic industry-leading property information and its securities and servicing databases. The CoreLogic HPI provides a multi-tier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming) and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, including single-family attached and single-family detached homes, which provides a more accurate “constant-quality” view of pricing trends than basing analysis on all home sales. The CoreLogic HPI provides the most comprehensive set of monthly home price indices available covering 7257 ZIP codes (60 percent of total U.S. population), 654 Core Based Statistical Areas (89 percent of total U.S. population) and 1,279 counties (85 percent of total U.S. population) located in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Forecast ranges provided in this report are based on a 95 percent confidence interval.

Source:  CoreLogic

The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast. This data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Lori Guyton at lguyton@cvic.com or Bill Campbell at bill@campbelllewis.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic

CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider. The company's combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 3.5 billion records spanning more than 40 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI, CoreLogic HPI Forecast and HPI are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.