CoreLogic Reports Home Prices Rise by 11.1 Percent Year Over Year in March
May 06, 2014, Irvine, Calif. –
––CoreLogic HPI Forecast Indicates National Home Prices Are Expected to Rise by 6.7 Percent from March 2014 to March 2015—
CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider, today released its March CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) report. Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 11.1 percent in March 2014 compared to March 2013. This change represents 25 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 1.4 percent in March 2014 compared to February 2014.*
At the state level, including distressed sales, only Arkansas (-0.3 percent) posted depreciation in March 2014. Additionally, Colorado, the District of Columbia, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas and Wyoming all surpassed their previous home price peaks in March 2014. In all, 23 states and the District of Columbia are at or within 10 percent of their peak home price appreciation.
Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationally increased 9.5 percent in March 2014 compared to March 2013 and 0.9 percent month over month compared to February 2014. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase 0.8 percent month over month from March 2014 to April 2014 and by 6.7 percent (+/- 1.5 percent)** from March 2014 to March 2015. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are expected to rise 0.6 percent month over month from March 2014 to April 2014 and by 5.7 percent (+/- 1.5 percent)** year over year from March 2014 to March 2015. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a monthly forecast built on the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices by the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
“March data on new and existing home sales was weaker than expected and is a cause for concern as we enter the spring buying season,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Interest rate-disenfranchised potential sellers are adding to the existing shadow inventory, while buyers who can't find what they want to buy are on the sidelines creating a new kind of 'shadow demand.' This supply and demand imbalance continues to drive home prices higher, even though transaction volumes are lower than expected.”
“Home prices continue to rise across the nation, but affordability, tight credit and supply concerns are becoming an increasing drag on purchase market activity,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “In many markets – especially major metro areas like Los Angeles, Atlanta and New York – home prices are being driven up at double-digit rates fueled by a lack of inventory and record levels of cash purchases.”
Highlights as of March 2014:
- Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were California (+17.2 percent), Nevada (+15.5 percent), Georgia (+12.4 percent), Hawaii (+12.3 percent) and Oregon (+12.2 percent).
- Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were California (+13.2 percent), Nevada (+11.8 percent), Florida (+10.9 percent), Maine (+10.6 percent) and Hawaii (+10.6 percent).
- Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to March 2014) was -16.0 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -11.6 percent.
- Including distressed sales, the five-year HPI change (from March 2009 to March 2014) was 20.1 percent.
- Including distressed sales, the United States has experienced 13 consecutive months of year-over-year, double-digit growth.
- The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were Nevada (-39.9 percent), Florida (-36.3 percent), Arizona (-30.3 percent), Rhode Island (-28.1 percent) and Illinois (-26.5 percent).
- Ninety-eight of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas** (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in March 2014. The two CBSAs that did not show an increase were Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark., and Rochester, N.Y.
*February data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
** The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval.
Full-month March 2014 national data can be found at the Home Price Index Report page.
The CoreLogic HPI™ incorporates more than 30 years’ worth of repeat sales transactions, representing more than 65 million observations sourced from CoreLogic industry-leading property information and its securities and servicing databases. The CoreLogic HPI provides a multi-tier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming) and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, including single-family attached and single-family detached homes, which provides a more accurate “constant-quality” view of pricing trends than basing analysis on all home sales. The CoreLogic HPI provides the most comprehensive set of monthly home price indices available covering 6,993 ZIP codes (58 percent of total U.S. population), 641 Core Based Statistical Areas (86 percent of total U.S. population) and 1,239 counties (84 percent of total U.S. population) located in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Forecast ranges provided in this report are based on a 95 percent confidence interval.
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