CoreLogic Reports Home Prices Rose by 5.6 Percent Year Over Year in September 2014
November 04, 2014, Irvine, Calif., –
––National Home Prices Are Expected to Rise 5 Percent from September 2014 to September 2015—
CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider, today released its September CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) report. Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 5.6 percent in September 2014 compared to September 2013. This change represents 31 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, dropped by 0.1 percent in September 2014 compared to August 2014.*
At the state level, including distressed sales, all states showed year-over-year home price appreciation in September. Two of those states, Michigan and Montana, showed double-digit year-over-year growth. Twenty-eight states and the District of Columbia were at or within 10 percent of their home price peak. The HPI reached new highs in a total of five states: Colorado, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Texas.
Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationally increased 5.2 percent in September 2014 compared to September 2013 and 0.1 percent month over month compared to August 2014. Also excluding distressed sales, 49 states and the District of Columbia showed year-over-year home price appreciation in August, with Mississippi being the only state to experience a year-over-year decline (-0.9 percent). Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase 0.1 percent month over month from September 2014 to October 2014 and, on a year-over-year basis, by 5 percent** from September 2014 to September 2015. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are expected to rise 0.1 percent month over month from September 2014 to October 2014 and by 4.6 percent** year over year from September 2014 to September 2015. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a monthly projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
“There has been a clear bifurcation in home price growth for lower-end versus upper-end properties in 2014,” said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic. “As of December 2013, both lower-end and upper-end property prices were up 9.7 percent on a year over year basis. As of September, lower-end prices were up 9.4 percent but upper-end prices were up only 4.5 percent.”
“Home prices continue to rise compared with this time last year but the rate of growth is clearly slowing as we exit 2014,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “With more positive macro-economic trends emerging in the U.S., we are forecasting moderate price growth for 2015.”
Highlights as of September 2014:
- Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Michigan (+10.3 percent), Montana (+10 percent), Maine (+9.6 percent), Massachusetts (+8.8 percent) and California (+8.5 percent).
- Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Maine (+10.4 percent), Massachusetts (+9.7 percent), California (+7.6 percent), Texas (+7.4 percent) and Michigan (+7.2 percent).
- Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to September 2014) was -12.6 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -9.1 percent.
- The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were: Nevada (-36.6 percent), Florida (-34.1 percent), Arizona (-29.6 percent), Rhode Island (-27.9 percent) and Maryland (-21.2 percent).
- Including distressed sales, the U.S. has experienced 31 consecutive months of year-over-year increases; however, the national average is no longer posting double-digit increases.
- Ninety-six of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in September 2014. The four CBSAs that did not show an increase were Rochester, N.Y.; Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark.; New Haven-Milford, Conn. and Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn.
*August data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
** The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index including distressed sales and a +/- 1.9 percent margin of error for the index excluding distressed sales.
Full-month August 2014 national data can be found at the Home Price Index Report page.
The CoreLogic HPI™ incorporates more than 30 years’ worth of repeat sales transactions, representing more than 65 million observations sourced from CoreLogic industry-leading property information and its securities and servicing databases. The CoreLogic HPI provides a multi-tier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming) and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, including single-family attached and single-family detached homes, which provides a more accurate “constant-quality” view of pricing trends than basing analysis on all home sales. The CoreLogic HPI provides the most comprehensive set of monthly home price indices available covering 7083 ZIP codes (59 percent of total U.S. population), 653 Core Based Statistical Areas (89 percent of total U.S. population) and 1,251 counties (85 percent of total U.S. population) located in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Forecast ranges provided in this report are based on a 95 percent confidence interval.
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