CoreLogic Reports Home Prices Rose by 5.5 Percent Year Over Year in November 2014

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January 06, 2015, Irvine, Calif. –

––National Home Prices Projected to Decline Month Over Month in December 2014––

CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider, today released its November 2014 CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) report. Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 5.5 percent in November 2014 compared to November 2013. This change represents 33 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, rose by 0.1 percent in November 2014 compared to October 2014.*

At the state level, including distressed sales, all states and the District of Columbia showed year-over-year home price appreciation in November. Twenty-nine states are at or within 10 percent of their peak. Seven states reached new highs in the home price index (since January 1976 when the index starts); these states were: Colorado, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas and Wyoming.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationally increased 5.3 percent in November 2014 compared to November 2013 and 0.3 percent month over month compared to October 2014. Also excluding distressed sales, all states and the District of Columbia showed year-over-year home price appreciation in November. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to decrease 0.1 percent month over month from November 2014 to December 2014 and increase, on a year-over-year basis, by 4.6 percent** from November 2014 to November 2015. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are also expected to decrease by 0.1 percent month over month from November 2014 to December 2014 and increase by 4.2 percent** year over year from November 2014 to November 2015. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a monthly projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

“After decelerating for most of the year, home price growth has been holding firm between a 5-percent and 6-percent growth rate for the last four months,” said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic. “However, pockets of weakness are clear in Baltimore and Washington D.C., and three of the top four states with the highest price appreciation are energy intensive and had been benefitting from the energy boom which is currently receding as oil prices trend downward. These states—Texas, Colorado and North Dakota, may see some downward pressure on prices in 2015.

The pace of home price gains have slowed as we exit 2014 but this is probably only a temporary lull,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “While the CoreLogic HPI Forecast shows a slight dip in prices next month, we believe that prices will be up a year from now as continued economic growth fuels buyer confidence and their willingness to purchase a home and invest in their future.

Highlights as of November 2014:

  • Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Michigan (+9.0 percent), Colorado (+8.8 percent), Texas (+8.5 percent), North Dakota (+7.9 percent) and Nevada (+7.9 percent).
  • Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Massachusetts (+8.6 percent), Texas (+7.9 percent), Colorado (+7.8 percent), North Dakota (+7.8 percent) and South Dakota (+7.5 percent).
  • Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to November 2014) was -12.9 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -9.2 percent.
  • Including distressed sales, the 5-year HPI change (from November 2009 to November 2014) is 18.9 percent.
  • The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were: Nevada (-35.7 percent), Florida (-33.4 percent), Arizona (-29.3 percent), Rhode Island (-29.1 percent) and Connecticut (-23.2 percent).
  • Including distressed sales, the U.S. has experienced 33 consecutive months of year-over-year increases; however, the national increase is no longer posting double-digits.
  • Ninety-six of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in November 2014. The four CBSAs that showed year-over-year declines were: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.; Camden, N.J.; Greensboro-High Point, N.C.; and Winston-Salem, N.C.

*October data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.

** The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index including distressed sales and a +/- 1.9 percent margin of error for the index excluding distressed sales.

Full-month November 2014 national data can be found at the Home Price Index Report page.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI incorporates more than 30 years’ worth of repeat sales transactions, representing more than 65 million observations sourced from CoreLogic industry-leading property information and its securities and servicing databases. The CoreLogic HPI provides a multi-tier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming) and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, including single-family attached and single-family detached homes, which provides a more accurate “constant-quality” view of pricing trends than basing analysis on all home sales. The CoreLogic HPI provides the most comprehensive set of monthly home price indices available covering 7257 ZIP codes (60 percent of total U.S. population), 654 Core Based Statistical Areas (89 percent of total U.S. population) and 1,279 counties (85 percent of total U.S. population) located in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Forecast ranges provided in this report are based on a 95 percent confidence interval.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast. This data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Lori Guyton at lguyton@cvic.com or Bill Campbell at bill@campbelllewis.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic

CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider. The company's combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 3.5 billion records spanning more than 40 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

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