CoreLogic US Home Price Report Shows Home Prices Up 6.4 Percent Year Over Year
November 03, 2015, Irvine, Calif. –
—Forecast Projects Increase of 4.7 Percent by September 2016—
CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider, today released its CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ data for September 2015 which shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month.
According to the CoreLogic HPI, home prices nationwide, including distressed* sales, increased by 6.4 percent in September 2015 compared with September 2014 and increased by 0.6 percent in September 2015 compared with August 2015.**
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices are projected to increase by 4.7*** percent on a year-over-year basis from September 2015 to September 2016, but could potentially dip slightly month over month from September 2015 to October 2015. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
“After nearly 10 years of very high home price volatility, home price increases have been remarkably stable for the last 15 months, ranging between a 4.8 percent and 6.5 percent year-over-year increase,” said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist for CoreLogic. “Home price volatility is now back to the long-term trend prior to the boom and bust which is a good barometer of the market’s stability and health.”
“The continued growth in home prices is welcome news for many homeowners but more markets are becoming overvalued. In the near term, this trend is likely to continue and pose evaluated risks to the housing economy,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "More has to be done to expand inventories if we are going to address the emerging affordability crisis, especially in hot markets like California and Colorado.”
Full-month September 2015 national data can be found at the CoreLogic Home Price Insights page.
*The home price data in this release includes distressed sales. Requests for home price data excluding distressed sales may be directed to the contacts below.
**August data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
***The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index.
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 30 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with a five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends among Single-Family Attached and Single-Family Detached properties. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction structural model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a five-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales. As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review national scenarios to project home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, CBSA and ZIP Code-levels.
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CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider. The company's combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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