CoreLogic US Home Price Report Shows Home Prices Up 6.8 Percent Year Over Year in October
December 01, 2015, Irvine, Calif. –
—Forecast Projects Increase of 5.2 Percent by October 2016—
CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider, today released its CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ data for October 2015 which shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month.
Home prices nationwide, including distressed* sales, increased by 6.8 percent in October 2015 compared with October 2014 and increased by 1.0 percent in October 2015 compared with September 2015**, according to the CoreLogic HPI.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices are projected to increase by 5.2*** percent on a year-over-year basis from October 2015 to October 2016, and the projected month-over-month gain is negligible (0.1 percent) from October 2015 to November 2015. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
“Many markets have experienced a low inventory of homes for sale along with strong buyer demand, which is sustaining upward pressure on home prices. These conditions are likely to persist as we enter 2016,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “A year from now, as we finish out October 2016, we expect the CoreLogic national Home Price Index appreciation to slow to 5.2 percent.”
“The rise in home prices over the past few years has largely been a healthy trend. The shadow inventory has been reduced significantly and home equity levels are now approaching pre-recession levels,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “As we move forward, the rise in home prices will need to be better correlated to family income trends over time to avoid homes becoming unaffordable for many. This is especially true in several metropolitan areas where home prices have grown rapidly.”
Full-month October 2015 national data can be found at the CoreLogic Home Price Insights page.
*The home price data in this release includes distressed sales. Requests for home price data excluding distressed sales may be directed to the contacts below.
**September data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
***The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index.
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 30 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with a five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends among that include the Single-Family Combined tier representing the most comprehensive set of properties (including all sales for Single-Family Attached and Single-Family Detached properties). The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction structural model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a five-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales. As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review national scenarios to project home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, CBSA and ZIP Code-levels.
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CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider. The company's combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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