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Blog Entries by Frank Nothaft

U.S. Economic Outlook: May 2017

Mortgage Market Evolves: More Purchase & HELOCs, Less Refinances: Less single-family refinance in 2017 as mortgage rates remain higher than a year ago

Frank Nothaft    |    Videos

Mortgage originations are affected by economic growth and the level of mortgage rates.  Economic growth is expected to be stronger in 2017 than last year, which creates jobs, income, and additional construction, each of which supports purchase-mortgage lending.  However, higher mortgage rates work in the opposite direction: as mortgage loans become more expensive,...

U.S. Economic Outlook: April 2017

Effect of Higher Mortgage Rates on Homeowner Mobility: Higher mortgage rates may slow homeowner re-sale volume

Frank Nothaft    |    Videos

Dr Nothaft April Video


 

Interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages are up nearly three-quarters of a percentage point from last summer, and most economists are expecting mortgage rates to gradually move higher.  Higher interest rates lessen home-buyer affordability and will lead to a substantial drop in refinance originations.  And higher rates can also affect other aspects of the...

Business Economists Favor NAFTA, Skilled Immigrants, Less Debt and More Consumer Say in Health Care

NABE’s Policy Survey is first since Trump Administration took office

Frank Nothaft    |    Housing Trends

Current State of Economic Policy

The National Association for Business Economics’ (NABE) semiannual Economic Policy Survey focused on some of the critical topics that President Trump and his advisers face.  Conducted January 31 - February 15, the survey revealed some disagreements...

U.S. Economic Outlook: March 2017

Single-family Rent Growth Faster in Markets with Low Vacancies: One-percentage point lower vacancy rate leads to 0.5% faster rent growth

Frank Nothaft    |    Videos

Components of US Rental Stock


 

Rent growth varies across neighborhoods and over time. For this reason, rent-growth expectations are important not just for families who are deciding whether to rent or own their home, but also for investors who are trying to forecast net revenue on their housing investment.

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U.S. Economic Outlook: February 2017

63.4% Homeownership Rate in 2016 Was Lowest Since 1966

Frank Nothaft    |    Videos

Dr. Nothaft February Video


 

The erosion of homeownership has been one legacy of the housing boom-and-bust of the last decade. The homeownership rate peaked at 69 percent in 2004, inflated by relatively easy mortgage credit primarily provided by subprime and low/no-doc loan products. The drop in homeownership continued through 2016, with the homeowner rate just a tad above 63 percent,...

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