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Blog Entries by Frank Nothaft

U.S. Economic Outlook: August 2017

Foreign Buyers and Home-Price Growth: 15% nonresident foreign buyer tax enacted in Toronto and Vancouver

Frank Nothaft    |    Videos

Dr. Nothaft Video Blog

Major cities have been the entry gateway for immigrants to both the U.S. and Canada.  Today, about 13 percent of the U.S. population and 21 percent of the Canadian population is foreign born.  In Miami, New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco, more than one-third of the population is foreign born. Immigrants to Canada have concentrated in the Toronto metro area, with...

U.S. Economic Outlook: July 2017

‘Hot’ Metrics for Home Sales: Sales within 30 days, and sales price above list, at new highs

Frank Nothaft    |    Videos

U.S. Economic Outlook: July 2017

Comparing home sales for the first five months of the year, 2017 has had the best sales market in a decade. The reasons for the rise in sales include the lowest unemployment rate since 2001, low mortgage rates, the rosiest consumer confidence in 17 years, and growing numbers of millennials looking to buy.


U.S. Economic Outlook: June 2017

Will Higher Mortgage Rates add to Loan Default Risk? Refi Credit Scores Dip 9 points For Each Half-Percent Rise in Mortgage Rates

Frank Nothaft    |    Videos

Dr. Frank Nothaft June Economic Outlook

Mortgage rates have risen since last summer to their highest level in two years.  Let’s explore how higher mortgage rates may affect the default risk of loans currently outstanding, as well as new originations.

Higher interest rates can lead to an increase in monthly payments on adjustable-rate mortgages, also called ARMs, and this “payment shock” can...

U.S. Economic Outlook: May 2017

Mortgage Market Evolves: More Purchase & HELOCs, Less Refinances: Less single-family refinance in 2017 as mortgage rates remain higher than a year ago

Frank Nothaft    |    Videos

Mortgage originations are affected by economic growth and the level of mortgage rates.  Economic growth is expected to be stronger in 2017 than last year, which creates jobs, income, and additional construction, each of which supports purchase-mortgage lending.  However, higher mortgage rates work in the opposite direction: as mortgage loans become more expensive,...

U.S. Economic Outlook: April 2017

Effect of Higher Mortgage Rates on Homeowner Mobility: Higher mortgage rates may slow homeowner re-sale volume

Frank Nothaft    |    Videos

Dr Nothaft April Video


Interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages are up nearly three-quarters of a percentage point from last summer, and most economists are expecting mortgage rates to gradually move higher.  Higher interest rates lessen home-buyer affordability and will lead to a substantial drop in refinance originations.  And higher rates can also affect other aspects of the...

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