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Blog Entries by Frank Nothaft

U.S. Economic Outlook: July 2016

Home Mortgage Lending Outlook: Large Annual Swings May Be Less Likely - Purchase Volume More Steady Year to Year Than Refinance

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For most of the last 25 years, large annual swings in home mortgage originations have been common, driven by a refinance boom-and-bust cycle. And while refinance will continue to be an important segment of the market, home purchase is expected to dominate the lending landscape in the coming years. What this means for the lending industry is that mortgage volumes will likely...

Single-family Mortgage Default Rate Falls to pre-Recession Level

Loans Originated After 2008 Have Very Low Default Rates

Frank Nothaft    |    Videos

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Single-family mortgage default rates have fallen sharply over the last few years, and finally this year have retreated to levels last seen prior to the Great Recession. Measuring default by the percent of loans that are seriously delinquent, defined as loans that are at least three months delinquent or are in foreclosure proceedings, CoreLogic has reported that 3.1 percent...

U.S. Economic Outlook: May 2016

Single-family Housing: Entering a ‘New Normal?': Purchase Lending To Dominate; Sales ‘Turnover’ May Be Less Than in Past

Frank Nothaft    |    Videos

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The single-family housing market has taken a long time to fully recover from the Great Recession. While projections for this year show further gains in single-family volume, when will the market get back to “normal,” and what does that “normal” look like?

Let’s start with interest rates. Today’s rates have gone retro (Figure 1)....

U.S. Economic Outlook: April 2016

Interest Rates Are Low, but Will Rise: Home Mortgage Rates Likely to Go Above 4 Percent Before Year End

Frank Nothaft    |    Videos

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Interest rates have remained low for a considerable time in the U.S., and it is natural to wonder how much longer we may have such low rates. A partial answer came in mid-December when, after more than seven years of a near zero federal funds interest rate, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark target by one-quarter of a percentage point.


U.S. Economic Outlook: March 2016

Home Equity Loans Make a Comeback

Frank Nothaft    |    Videos

Dr. Nothaft Video Blog

After years of falling volume, home equity lending is making a comeback. For the past two years, origination volumes have been trending sharply higher as more homeowners benefit from home price appreciation and more lenders see opportunity in the loan segment.

During the first nine months of 2015, lenders approved nearly one million new home equity lines of credit...

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