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Blog Entries by Frank Nothaft

U.S. Economic Outlook: May 2016

Single-family Housing: Entering a ‘New Normal?': Purchase Lending To Dominate; Sales ‘Turnover’ May Be Less Than in Past

Frank Nothaft    |    Videos

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The single-family housing market has taken a long time to fully recover from the Great Recession. While projections for this year show further gains in single-family volume, when will the market get back to “normal,” and what does that “normal” look like?

Let’s start with interest rates. Today’s rates have gone retro (Figure 1)....

U.S. Economic Outlook: April 2016

Interest Rates Are Low, but Will Rise: Home Mortgage Rates Likely to Go Above 4 Percent Before Year End

Frank Nothaft    |    Videos

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Interest rates have remained low for a considerable time in the U.S., and it is natural to wonder how much longer we may have such low rates. A partial answer came in mid-December when, after more than seven years of a near zero federal funds interest rate, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark target by one-quarter of a percentage point.

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U.S. Economic Outlook: March 2016

Home Equity Loans Make a Comeback

Frank Nothaft    |    Videos

Dr. Nothaft Video Blog

After years of falling volume, home equity lending is making a comeback. For the past two years, origination volumes have been trending sharply higher as more homeowners benefit from home price appreciation and more lenders see opportunity in the loan segment.

During the first nine months of 2015, lenders approved nearly one million new home equity lines of credit...

U.S. Economic Outlook: February 2016

Rental Apartments in Demand: Rent Growth and Low Vacancy Drive New Development

Frank Nothaft    |    Housing Trends, Videos

If you have looked at the rental apartment market recently, whether to rent an apartment yourself or to invest in a building, you likely noticed that apartments are more expensive and less widely available than a few years ago.  That’s the case in most metro areas throughout the country, namely that rents are up and vacancy rates down, and these trends are clear...

How High Will Interest Rates Go in 2016?

Federal Open Market Committee Has the Answer

Frank Nothaft    |    Mortgage Performance

Now that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has dipped its toe in the rate increase water, are they more likely to wade in slowly or jump in? Each quarter, the FOMC provides its economic projection and details on each of the 17 members’ view on the level of the federal funds rate[1], with the last projection having been...

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