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March 2015 National Home Prices Increased 5.9 Percent from a Year Ago

Low-End Home Prices Nearing 2006 Peak Level

Molly Boesel    |    Property Valuation

CoreLogic reported today that March 2015 national home prices increased by 5.9 percent year over year and increased by 2 percent month over month. This marks 37 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI). Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased by 6.1 percent year over year from March 2014 and were up by 2 percent from February 2015. Including distressed sales, prices were still 11 percent below the April 2006 peak, and excluding distressed sales, prices were down 6.7 percent from this peak.

Including distressed sales, only two states and the District of Columbia showed year-over-year depreciation. Connecticut fell by 0.6 percent, followed by the District of Columbia (-0.2 percent) and Maryland (-0.1 percent). Excluding distressed sales, only New Mexico showed a decline, falling by 0.4 percent from March 2014.

Colorado, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Wyoming reached new highs in their respective home price indices in March 2015. Of these seven states, Colorado had the largest home price appreciation at 9.2 percent, followed by Texas (8 percent), New York (6.8 percent), Tennessee (6 percent), Nebraska (5.3 percent), Oklahoma (4.6 percent) and Wyoming (4.3 percent). Nevada had the largest peak-to-current drop in home prices, down by 34.7 percent from its peak in March 2006.

In addition to the overall indices, CoreLogic analyzes four individual home-price tiers. The price tiers tracked by the CoreLogic HPI are calculated relative to the median national home price and include homes that are priced 75 percent or less below the median (low price), between 75 and 100 percent of the median (low-to-middle price), between 100 and 125 percent of the median (middle-to-moderate price) and greater than 125 percent of the median (high price).

HPI by Price Segment

HPI by Price Segment

Figure 2 shows the levels of the four price tiers indexed to January 2006, shortly before each of the tiers hit their peak index values. The low-price tier has shown the largest increase in recent months, increasing by 11 percent year over year, and by 7 percent in 2015 alone. The low-price tier has recovered 45 percent from the trough hit in March 2009 and is the only price tier near its peak value at only 0.5 percent below peak. While the low-to-middle tier has recovered 36.2 percent from the bottom hit in March 2011, and has grown by 6.2 percent year over year, it is still 14.1 percent below peak and is the furthest from peak of all the price tiers. The middle-to-moderate price tier increased by 5 percent year over year in March 2015, but still remains 12.3 percent below peak. Finally, the high price tier — which fell the least during the housing crisis—increased by 4.2 percent year over year in March and remains 8.9 percent below peak.

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