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U.S. Economic Outlook: June 2017

Will Higher Mortgage Rates add to Loan Default Risk? Refi Credit Scores Dip 9 points For Each Half-Percent Rise in Mortgage Rates

Frank Nothaft    |    Videos

Dr. Frank Nothaft June Economic Outlook

Mortgage rates have risen since last summer to their highest level in two years.  Let’s explore how higher mortgage rates may affect the default risk of loans currently outstanding, as well as new originations.

Higher interest rates can lead to an increase in monthly payments on adjustable-rate mortgages, also called ARMs, and this “payment shock” can...

U.S. Economic Outlook: May 2017

Mortgage Market Evolves: More Purchase & HELOCs, Less Refinances: Less single-family refinance in 2017 as mortgage rates remain higher than a year ago

Frank Nothaft    |    Videos

Mortgage originations are affected by economic growth and the level of mortgage rates.  Economic growth is expected to be stronger in 2017 than last year, which creates jobs, income, and additional construction, each of which supports purchase-mortgage lending.  However, higher mortgage rates work in the opposite direction: as mortgage loans become more expensive,...

A Rising Tide for Flood Insurance Reform

U.S. Housing Policy Outlook: April 2017

Stuart Pratt    |    Videos

Stuart Pratt Video

The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), overseen by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), aims to reduce the impact of flooding on private and public structures across the United States through the provision of affordable flood insurance and the mitigation of negative externalities associated with flood disasters.  This program was initially created in 1968...

U.S. Economic Outlook: April 2017

Effect of Higher Mortgage Rates on Homeowner Mobility: Higher mortgage rates may slow homeowner re-sale volume

Frank Nothaft    |    Videos

Dr Nothaft April Video


Interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages are up nearly three-quarters of a percentage point from last summer, and most economists are expecting mortgage rates to gradually move higher.  Higher interest rates lessen home-buyer affordability and will lead to a substantial drop in refinance originations.  And higher rates can also affect other aspects of the...

U.S. Economic Outlook: March 2017

Single-family Rent Growth Faster in Markets with Low Vacancies: One-percentage point lower vacancy rate leads to 0.5% faster rent growth

Frank Nothaft    |    Videos

Components of US Rental Stock


Rent growth varies across neighborhoods and over time. For this reason, rent-growth expectations are important not just for families who are deciding whether to rent or own their home, but also for investors who are trying to forecast net revenue on their housing investment.


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