CoreLogic HPI Forecasts—Features
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CoreLogic HPI ForecastsStress-Testing Scenarios
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Stress-Testing Scenarios help banks, investors, government entities, and others initiate or evaluate compliance with the Federal Reserve Board of Governors’ Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) and the Dodd-Frank Stress-Test (DFAST) regulations—or develop independent stress-testing regimens of their own.
Source: CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Stress-Testing Scenarios
Aligned with the national CCAR supervisory home price scenarios, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Stress-Testing Scenarios project those scenarios at the state, CBSA, and ZIP Code levels on a monthly basis—for single-family combined (SFC) and SFC-excluding-stressed homes.
Learn more about Stress-Testing Scenarios
Market Condition Indicators and Long-Term Fundamental Values
Market Condition Indicators, an analytical enhancement now available with base subscriptions to CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic HPI Forecasts at no additional cost, identifies whether a market is overvalued, undervalued, or at value.
Source: CoreLogic HPI
Available for more than 300 Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs), Market Condition Indicators is derived from long-term fundamental values—home-price “norms” based on the correlation of home prices with real disposable income per capita. Overvalued and undervalued markets are defined as those having a current home price index at least 10% above or 10% below those long-term fundamental values.
By identifying the relationship between a market’s long-term value and its current pricing, Market Condition Indicators help inform successful investment strategies and risk management decisions. The long-term CBSA fundamental values are also available to clients, letting you tighten or broaden value thresholds as your own business use warrants.
Both long-term fundamental values and Market Condition Indicators come at no increase in subscription fees.
Five-Year Forecast Horizon
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts predicts home price movements at national, state, county, Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA), and ZIP code levels at monthly intervals—generating forecasts of likely home-price changes up to five years (60 months) in the future.
To generate these short- and long-term projections, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts combines the most comprehensive housing resale data with accurate modeling.
The resulting five-year forecast horizon provides segmented, highly accurate estimates of likely home-price movements—helping you understand and factor in future pricing risk today.
Trusted Data / Validated Models
All data underlying CoreLogic HPI Forecasts comes from our industry-leading real estate public records, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 30 years of repeat sales transactions—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts model validation reports include:
- Back- and out-of-sample testing
- Cumulative forecasting error tracking and reporting
- 95%-confidence bands
Available quarterly, these reports are available on request at no additional charge to subscribers.
Deep, Broad Coverage, Including Non-Disclosure States
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts data covers:
- 6700+ ZIP codes
- 1100+ counties
- 900+ CBSAs
- 50 states (including non-disclosure) + DC
Two Tiers, Including Non-Distressed Transactions Tier
In order to control for the impact of REO and other distressed properties on future price trends, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts offers two tiers:
- Single-family combined
- Single-family combined, excluding distressed properties
Built on Rigorous Two-Stage Error-Correction Modeling Framework
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts is based on a well-regarded two-stage error-correction structural model that combines the equilibrium house price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate.
Monthly Updates, with Brief Five-Week Lag Time
Monthly CoreLogic HPI Forecasts updates (released concurrently with the monthly CoreLogic HPI updates) provide you the fastest home-price projection information in the industry—complete home-price forecast datasets just five weeks after month’s end.
Available via Web Tool and FTP
Monthly CoreLogic HPI Forecasts indexes are available both via FTP or direct Web access.