Serious Delinquency Rate Falls Back to Pre-Crisis Level

Loan Performance Insights Report Highlights: August 2018

By Molly Boesel Housing Affordability, Mortgage Finance

  • The nation’s overall delinquency rate was 4 percent.
  • Overall U.S. mortgage delinquency lowest since March 2006.
  • Houston and Miami metro areas showed the first decrease in their overall delinquency rates since the 2017 hurricanes.

In August 2018, 4 percent of home mortgages were in some stage of delinquency, down from 4.6 percent a year earlier and the lowest since March 2006, when it was 3.9 percent, according to the latest CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report. The measure, also known as the overall delinquency rate, includes all home loans 30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure. For the month of August, the share of delinquent mortgages was highest in August 2010, at 11.1 percent. During the pre-crisis period (2000 to 2006), the share of delinquent mortgages averaged 4.7 percent.

Current to 30 day Transition Rate

The serious delinquency rate – defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure – was 1.5 percent in August 2018, down from 1.9 percent in August 2017. The serious delinquency rate was the lowest for any month since March 2007, and is now back to the average of the pre-crisis level of 1.5 percent.

The foreclosure inventory rate – meaning the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process – was 0.5 percent in August 2018, down from 0.6 percent a year earlier. The foreclosure rate is now below the average pre-crisis level of 0.6 percent.

The share of mortgages that were 30 to 59 days past due – considered early-stage delinquencies – was 1.8 percent in August 2018, down from 2 percent in August 2017. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due was 0.6 percent in August 2018, down from 0.7 percent from August 2017.

In addition to delinquency rates, CoreLogic tracks the rate at which mortgages transition from one stage of delinquency to the next, such as going from current to 30 days past due. Figure 1 shows that in August the current- to 30-day transition rate remained well below levels during the housing crisis. The August 2018 current- to 30-day rate was 0.8 percent, down from 0.9 percent a year earlier. The 30- to 60-day transition rate was 14.9 percent in August 2018, down from 16.7 percent in August 2017, while the 60- to 90-day transition rate was 24.6 percent this August, down from 27.4 percent a year earlier.

States With the Highest and Lowest Rate of Mortgages

Figure 2 shows the states with the highest and lowest share of mortgages 30 days or more delinquent. In August 2018, that rate was highest in Mississippi at 7.8 percent and lowest in Colorado at 1.8 percent. No states had increases in their 30-plus-day delinquency rate from a year earlier.

Percentage of Mortgages at least 30 days

Figure 3 shows the 30-plus-day past-due rate for August 2018 for the 10 largest metro areas.[1] Miami had the highest rate at 5.9 percent, down from 6.2 percent in August 2017, while San Francisco had the lowest at 1.4 percent. August 2018 was the first month since the 2017 hurricanes that both Miami and Houston saw year-over-year decreases in their 30-plus-day delinquency rates.

[1] Metro areas used in this report are the ten most populous Core-Based Statistical Areas.

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