CoreLogic Forecast Reveals First Markets to Show Home Price Weakness in 2019

Home prices expected to decline in some regions this year

By Kathy Kirkendall Housing Affordability, Real Estate

After several years of continuous year-over-year increases in nationwide residential real estate appreciation, our CoreLogic team predicts that for 2019, home prices will appreciate by 4.8% nationwide. We believe that while several states and dozens of CBSAs will experience solid appreciation rates, many others will experience significant slowdowns for the first time in over seven years. In a nutshell, we anticipate seeing a lot of disparity across the nation.  

On the positive side, there are five states with strong forecasts that fit our economists’ view that cities with a wide array of amenities, an active lifestyle and good career opportunities will likely continue to perform well over the next few years. However, we predict that a total of 17 CBSAs across the nation will experience declines in year-over-year home prices through December 2019. Interestingly, these CBSAs are spread out across the Northeast and Midwest in areas such as New Jersey, Virginia, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Texas. In addition, many CBSAs across the country will experience slower appreciation rates of between .01% – 3% for the first time in many years.

States Forecasted to Have Less Than Four Percent Home Price Appreciation in 2019

As we look at our predictions for 2019 across all CBSAs with populations of over 200,000, we expect that 14 CBSAs will perform particularly poorly in 2019. Each of these CBSAs is forecasted to appreciate at less than 3% for the calendar year:

  1. Corpus Christi, TX
  2. New Orleans-Metairie, LA
  3. Springfield, IL
  4. Peoria, IL
  5. Montgomery, AL
  6. Baton Rouge, LA
  7. Oklahoma City, OK
  8. Fargo, ND-MN
  9. Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT
  10. Rochester, NY
  11. Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX
  12. Wilmington, DE-MD-NJ
  13. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
  14. Jackson, MS

Over a dozen smaller populated CBSAs in states across the Northeast and Midwest will likely experience declines in home values. The commonalities in many of these CBSAs are less desirable quality of life attributes along with significant affordability challenges and in some cases below-average economic conditions. CoreLogic is closely monitoring whether affordability concerns combined with slower demand will impact these markets in 2020 and beyond.

We recommend that our clients closely study CBSA-level forecasts due to the disparity in neighboring markets. CoreLogic HPI Forecast is the market leader in home price forecasts. We benchmark our performance against actuals and consistently find that our forecast is within 1% of actual home prices over a 12-month period nationwide. With shifting markets, it’s more important than ever to be utilizing the leading Forecast product in the industry. Learn more in the CoreLogic Home Price Index Forecasts.

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