All but Six States Post Annual Drop in Delinquency Rate in July

Loan Performance Insights Report Highlights: July 2019

By Molly Boesel Consumer Behavior, Mortgage Finance

  • The nation’s overall delinquency rate was 3.8% in July.
  • The foreclosure inventory rate for July was 0.4%, where it has stood since November 2018.

In July 2019, 3.8% of home mortgages were in some stage of delinquency[1], down from 4.1% a year earlier and the lowest for the month of July in more than 20 years, according to the latest CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report. The measure, also known as the overall delinquency rate, includes all home loans 30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure. For the month of July historically, the share of delinquent mortgages peaked in 2010 at 11.1%. Since March 2018 the overall delinquency rate each month has been lower than during the pre-crisis period of 2000 through 2006, when the rate averaged 4.7%.

The serious delinquency rate – defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure – was 1.3% in July 2019, down from 1.6% in July 2018. The serious delinquency rate for this July was below the average of 1.5% for the 2000 – 2006 pre-crisis period and far below the peak of 7.5% in February 2010. The foreclosure inventory rate – the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process – was 0.4% in July 2019, down from 0.5% a year earlier. July’s foreclosure rate was the lowest for that month in at least 20 years[2] and was below the average pre-crisis level of 0.6%. Rising home prices have led to record amounts of home equity, reducing the risk of foreclosure.

The share of mortgages that were 30 to 59 days past due – considered early-stage delinquencies – was 1.8% in July 2019, down from 1.9% in July 2018. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due was 0.6% in July 2019, unchanged from July 2018.

Current-to 30-Day Transition Rate

In addition to delinquency rates, CoreLogic tracks the rate at which mortgages transition from one stage of delinquency to the next, such as going from current to 30 days past due. Figure 1 shows that in July 2019 the current- to 30-day transition rate remained well below levels during the housing crisis. The July current- to 30-day rate was 0.8%, unchanged from a year earlier. The 30- to 60-day transition rate was 13.8% in July, down from 15.1% in July 2018, and the 60- to 90-day transition rate was 24% in July, down from 25.3% a year earlier.

States With the Highest and Lowest Rate of Mortgages At Least 30 Days Past Due

Figure 2 shows the states with the highest and lowest share of mortgages 30 days or more delinquent. In July 2019, that rate was highest in Mississippi at 7.3% and lowest in Colorado at 1.7%.  Four states logged an annual gain in their overall delinquency rate in July 2019. Vermont saw an increase of 0.5 percentage points, New Hampshire an increase of 0.2 percentage points, and Minnesota and Iowa both posted an increase of 0.1 percentage points. Nebraska and Wisconsin had no change in the overall delinquency rate from a year earlier.

Percentage of Mortgages At Least 30 Days Past Due For the Ten Largest Metropolian Areas

Figure 3 shows the 30-plus-day past-due rate for July 2019 for 10 large metropolitan areas.[3] The New York metro had the highest rate at 5.1%. Miami, with the second-highest rate at 5%, saw a sharp decrease in the overall delinquency rate, falling from 6.5% in July 2018. Houston also saw a large year-over-year decrease, from 5.8% in July 2018 to 4.7% in July 2019. San Francisco had the lowest 30-plus-day delinquency rate in July 2019 at 1.3%.

[1] Data in this report is provided by TrueStandings Servicing.  https://www.corelogic.com/products/truestandings-servicing.aspx

[2] The data in this report date back to January 1999.

[3] Metropolitan areas used in this report are the ten most populous Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The report uses Metropolitan Divisions where available.

© 2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved.