Five States Show Large Decreases in Their Overall Delinquency Rate

Loan Performance Insights Report Highlights:
September 2019

By Molly Boesel Mortgage Finance

  • The nation’s overall delinquency rate was 3.8% in September.
  • The serious delinquency rate and the foreclosure rate have flattened out at low levels.

In September 2019, 3.8% of home mortgages were in some stage of delinquency[1], down from 4.4% a year earlier and the lowest for the month of September in more than 20 years, according to the latest CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report. The measure, also known as the overall delinquency rate, includes all home loans 30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure. For the month of September historically, the share of delinquent mortgages peaked in 2010 at 11.3%. Since March 2018, the overall delinquency rate each month has been lower than during the pre-crisis period of 2000 through 2006, when the rate averaged 4.7%.

Figure 1: Current to 30 day Transition Rate

The serious delinquency rate – defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure – was 1.3% in September 2019, down from 1.5% in September 2018. The serious delinquency rate has stood at 1.3% since April 2019. The foreclosure inventory rate – the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process – was 0.4% in September 2019, down from 0.5% a year earlier. September’s foreclosure rate was the lowest for that month in at least 20 years[2] and has stayed constant at 0.4% since November 2018. Rising home prices have led to record amounts of home equity, reducing the risk of foreclosure.

The share of mortgages that were 30 to 59 days past due – considered early-stage delinquencies – was 1.9% in September 2019, down from 2.2% in September 2018. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due was 0.6% in September 2019, down from 0.7% in September 2018.

In addition to delinquency rates, CoreLogic tracks the rate at which mortgages transition from one stage of delinquency to the next, such as going from current to 30 days past due. Figure 1 shows that in September 2019 the current- to 30-day transition rate remained well below levels during the housing crisis. The September current- to 30-day rate was 0.8%, down from 1.2% a year earlier. The 30- to 60-day transition rate was 16.4% in September, down from 19.2% in September 2018, and the 60- to 90-day transition rate was 26.1% in September, down from 29.3% a year earlier.

Figure 2 shows the states with the highest and lowest share of mortgages 30 days or more delinquent. In September 2019, that rate was highest in Mississippi at 7.4% and lowest in Colorado at 1.7%.  No states posted annual gains in their overall delinquency rate in September 2019, and five states saw large decreases in the overall delinquency rate. The states that logged largest annual decreases included: Mississippi (-1.1 percentage points), North Carolina (-1.1 percentage points), Louisiana (-1.0 percentage points), New Jersey (-1.0 percentage points) and South Carolina (-1.0 percentage points). The large decrease in the overall delinquency rate in the Carolinas is most likely due to a recovery from the elevated levels in 2018 in the wake of Hurricane Florence.

Figure 2: States With the Highest and Lowest Rate of Mortages at least 30 days Past Due

Figure 3 shows the 30-plus-day past-due rate for September 2019 for 10 large metropolitan areas.[3] The New York metro had the highest rate at 5.1%. Miami, with the second-highest rate at 5%, saw a sharp decrease in the overall delinquency rate, falling from 6.1% in September 2018. San Francisco had the lowest 30-plus-day delinquency rate in September 2019 at 1.3%.

Figure 3: Percentage of Mortgages At Least 30 Days Past Due for the Ten Largest Metropolitan Areas

© 2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved.

[1] Data in this report is provided by TrueStandings Servicing.  https://www.corelogic.com/products/truestandings-servicing.aspx

[2] The data in this report date back to January 1999.

[3] Metropolitan areas used in this report are the ten most populous Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The report uses Metropolitan Divisions where available.