Rebound in Home Prices Nearly Double for Lower-Priced Homes Than for Higher-Priced Homes

Home Price Index Highlights: November 2019

By Molly Boesel Real Estate

  • National home prices increased 3.7% year over year in November.
  • Connecticut was the only state to show an annual decrease in home prices in November.

National home prices increased 3.7% year over year in November 2019 and are forecast to increase 5.3% from November 2019 to November 2020, according to the latest CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) Report. The November 2019 HPI gain was down from the November 2018 gain of 4.8% and was up a bit from the September 2019 gain of 3.3%.  Annual home price gains fell below 4% in February 2019.

Figure 1 HPI Price Declines From Peak

The HPI has increased on a year-over-year basis every month for more than seven years (since February 2012) and has gained 62.9% since hitting bottom in March 2011. As of November 2019, the overall HPI was 9.6% higher than its pre-crisis peak in April 2006. Adjusted for inflation, U.S. home prices increased 2.3% year over year in November 2019 and were 11.4% below their peak[1]. Figure 1 shows the cumulative price movement since the inception of price declines for both the nominal HPI and the inflation-adjusted HPI, as well as the time in years since the first decrease in the indices.

Figure 2 : Price Growth Strongest For Lowest-Priced Homes

CoreLogic analyzes four individual home-price tiers that are calculated relative to the median national home sale price[2]. The lowest price tier increased 5.6% year over year in November 2019, compared with 4.8% for the low-to-middle-price tier, 4.2% for the middle-to moderate-price tier, and 3.4% for the high-price tier. Cumulative price gains since the 2011 trough were strongest for lower-priced homes, with the lowest price tier gaining 97.3%, the low- to middle-price tier gaining 77.5%, the middle-to-moderate-price tier gaining 65.8% and the high-price tier gaining 49.3%. Figure 2 shows the change from a year ago and from the 2011 trough for each HPI price tier.

Figure 3: States With the Highest and Lowest Year-Over-Year Change in HPI

Figure 3 shows the year-over-year HPI growth in November 2019 for the 5 highest-and lowest-appreciating states. Idaho led the states in appreciation as it has for just over a year, with annual appreciation of 10.2% this November, far above any of the other leading states. At the low end, Connecticut home prices fell by 0.1% from November 2018. Prices in 41 states (including the District of Columbia) have risen above their nominal pre-crisis peaks. Connecticut home prices in November 2019 were the farthest below their all-time HPI high, still 17.1% below the July 2006 peak.  While annual price increases slowed in 39 states compared with a year earlier, the cooling was most pronounced in Nevada. Prices in Nevada increased by 3.2% year over year in November 2019, a 7.8 percentage point slowdown from the 11% annual increase in November 2018.

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[1] The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Less Shelter was used to create the inflation-adjusted HPI.

[2] The four price tiers are based on the median sale price and are as follows: homes priced at 75% or less of the median (low price), homes priced between 75% and 100% of the median (low-to-middle price), homes priced between 100% and 125% of the median (middle-to-moderate price) and homes priced greater than 125% of the median (high price).