While All States Had Lower Delinquency Rates from a Year Earlier,
Some Metropolitan Areas in the Midwest and South Recorded Small Annual Increases

Loan Performance Insights Report Highlights: October 2019

By Molly Boesel Housing Affordability, Mortgage Finance

  • The nation’s overall delinquency rate was 3.7% in October.
  • The serious delinquency rate and the foreclosure rate have flattened out at low levels.

In October 2019, 3.7% of home mortgages were in some stage of delinquency[1], down from 4.1% a year earlier and the lowest for the month of October in more than 20 years, according to the latest CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report. The measure, also known as the overall delinquency rate, includes all home loans 30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure. For the month of October historically, the share of delinquent mortgages peaked in 2010 at 11.5%. Since March 2018, the overall delinquency rate each month has been lower than during the pre-crisis period of 2000 through 2006, when the rate averaged 4.7%.

Figure 1: Current- to 30-Day Transition Rate

The serious delinquency rate – defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure – was 1.3% in October 2019, down from 1.5% in October 2018. The serious delinquency rate has stood at 1.3% since April 2019. The foreclosure inventory rate – the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process – was 0.4% in October 2019, down from 0.5% a year earlier. October’s foreclosure rate was the lowest for that month in at least 20 years[2] and has stayed constant at 0.4% since November 2018. Rising home prices have led to record amounts of home equity, reducing the risk of foreclosure.

The share of mortgages that were 30 to 59 days past due – considered early-stage delinquencies – was 1.8% in October 2019, down from 1.9% in October 2018. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due was 0.6% in October 2019, down from 0.7% in October 2018.

In addition to delinquency rates, CoreLogic tracks the rate at which mortgages transition from one stage of delinquency to the next, such as going from current to 30 days past due. Figure 1 shows that in October 2019 the current to 30-day transition rate remained well below levels during the housing crisis. The October current- to 30-day rate was 0.7%, unchanged from a year earlier. The 30- to 60-day transition rate was 15.2% in October, up from 13.3% in October 2018, and the 60- to 90-day transition rate was 24.5% in October, up from 23.8% a year earlier.

Figure 2 shows the states with the highest and lowest share of mortgages 30 days or more delinquent. In October 2019, that rate was highest in Mississippi at 7.3% and lowest in Colorado at 1.7%.  No states posted annual gains in their overall delinquency rate in October 2019. The states that logged the largest annual decreases included North Carolina (down 0.9 percentage points) and Mississippi (down 0.8 percentage points). Eight other states followed with annual decreases of 0.6 percentage points.

Figure 2: States With the Highest and Lowest Rate of Mortgages At Least 30 Days Past Due October 2019

Figure 3 shows the 30-plus-day past-due rate for October 2019 for 10 large metropolitan areas.[3] The New York metro had the highest rate at 4.9%. San Francisco had the lowest 30-plus-day delinquency rate in October 2019 at 1.2%. Eight smaller metropolitan areas in the Midwest and South recorded small annual increases in overall delinquency rates. The largest annual increases in October 2019 were in the following metros: Pine Bluff, Arkansas (1.0 percentage points); Dubuque, Iowa (0.2 percentage points); Rockford, Illinois (0.2 percentage points). Five other metros were up 0.1 percentage points: Columbus, Indiana; Kokomo, Indiana; Manhattan, Kansas; Oshkosh-Neenah, Wisconsin; La Crosse-Onalaska, Wisconsin-Minnesota.

Figure 3: Percentage of Mortgages At Least 30 Days Past Due For the Ten Largest Metropolian Areas

© 2020 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved.

[1] Data in this report is provided by TrueStandings Servicing.  https://www.corelogic.com/products/truestandings-servicing.aspx

[2] The data in this report date back to January 1999.

[3] Metropolitan areas used in this report are the ten most populous Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The report uses Metropolitan Divisions where available.