Introduction

The CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights report features an interactive view of our mortgage performance analysis through July 2020.

Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

“Four months into the pandemic, the 120-day delinquency rate for July spiked to 1.4%,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “This was the highest rate in more than 21 years and double the December 2009 Great Recession peak. The spike in delinquency was all the more stunning given the generational low of 0.1% in March.”

- Dr. Frank Nothaft
Chief Economist for CoreLogic

30 Days or More Delinquent - National

In July 2020, 6.6% of mortgages were delinquent by at least 30 days or more including those in foreclosure.

This represents a 2.8-percentage point increase in the overall delinquency rate compared with July 2019.

30 Plus Delinquency

Recession Impact on Loan Performance

Despite home values, measured by the CoreLogic Home Price Index, rising at an accelerated rate, unemployment levels in hard-hit areas remain stubbornly high, leaving some borrowers house-rich but cash poor. Despite the slow reopening of several sectors of the economy, recovery for other industries like entertainment, tourism, oil and gas have a more uncertain outlook for the remainder of 2020. With persistent job market and income instability, Americans continue to tap into savings to stay current on their home loans. But as savings run out, borrowers could be pushed further down the delinquency funnel.  

Recession Impact on Loan Performance

“Many Americans, particularly millennials, are taking advantage of low rates to either purchase their first home or upgrade their living situations,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “However, given the unsteadiness of the job market, many homeowners are beginning to feel the compounding pressures of unstable income and debt on personal savings buffers, creating heightened risk of falling behind on their mortgages.”

- Frank Martell
President and CEO of CoreLogic

Loan Performance - National

CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency to more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance.

The nation's overall delinquency rate for July was 6.6%. The rate for early-stage delinquencies – defined as 30 to 59 days past due – was 1.5% in July 2020, down from 1.8% in July 2019. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due was 1%, up from 0.6% in July 2019. The serious delinquency rate – defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure – was 4.1%, up from 1.3% in July 2019. This is the highest serious delinquency rate since April 2014.

As of July 2020, the foreclosure inventory rate was 0.3%, down from 0.4% in July 2019.

Transition Rates - National

CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30-days past due was 0.8% in July 2020, unchanged from July 2019. The transition rate has slowed since April 2020 — when it peaked at 3.4%.

National Transition Rate
Delinquency By State

Serious Delinquency - State

Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due including loans in foreclosure.

In July, all states logged annual increases in both overall and serious delinquency rates. COVID-19 hotspots were again impacted the most, with Nevada (up 5.2 percentage points), New Jersey (up 4.8 percentage points), Hawaii (up 4.7 percentage points), New York (up 4.6 percentage points) and Florida (up 4.4 percentage points) topping the list for overall delinquency gains.

Serious Delinquency – Metropolitan Areas

Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due including loans in foreclosure.

There were 382 metropolitan areas where the Serious Delinquency Rate increased.

There were 2 metropolitan areas where the Serious Delinquency Rate remained the same or decreased. 

  

Delinquency CBSA Map

Summary

Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the CoreLogic Insights Blog: www.corelogic.com/insights.

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Methodology

The data in the CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights report represents foreclosure and delinquency activity reported through July 2020.

The data in this report accounts for only first liens against a property and does not include secondary liens. The delinquency, transition and foreclosure rates are measured only against homes that have an outstanding mortgage. Homes without mortgage liens are not subject to foreclosure and are, therefore, excluded from the analysis. Approximately one-third of homes nationally are owned outright and do not have a mortgage. CoreLogic has approximately 75% coverage of U.S. foreclosure data.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Valerie Sheets at newsmedia@corelogic.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.


About CoreLogic

CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), the leading provider of property insights and solutions, promotes a healthy housing market and thriving communities. Through its enhanced property data solutions, services and technologies, CoreLogic enables real estate professionals, financial institutions, insurance carriers, government agencies and other housing market participants to help millions of people find, buy and protect their homes. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

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For more information, please email Valerie Sheets at newsmedia@corelogic.com.