Introduction

The CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights report features an interactive view of our mortgage performance analysis through November 2019.

Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes transition rates between states of delinquency and separate breakouts for 120+ day delinquency.

“Natural disasters often cause spikes in mortgage delinquencies that gradually recede,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “The CoreLogic 2019 Natural Hazard Report revealed that delinquency rates in Panama City, Florida, nearly tripled in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Michael in October 2018, but fell back to trend levels by late 2019.”

- Dr. Frank Nothaft
Chief Economist for CoreLogic

30 Days or More Delinquent - National

The 30 days or more delinquency rate for November 2019 was 3.9%.

In November 2019, 3.9% of mortgages were delinquent by at least 30 days or more including those in foreclosure.

This represents a 0.1% decline in the overall delinquency rate compared with November 2018.

30 Plus Delinquency

Delinquency Hotspots

No states posted a year-over-year increase in the overall delinquency rate in November 2019. The states that logged the largest annual decreases included North Carolina (down 0.7 percentage points) and District of Columbia (down 0.5 percentage points). Four other states followed with annual decreases of 0.4 percentage points.

In November 2019, 50 metropolitan areas recorded at least a small annual increase in overall delinquency rate. The largest annual increases were in the following metros: Pine Bluff, Arkansas (up 1.4 percentage points); Enid, Oklahoma (up 0.9 percentage points); Dalton, Georgia (up 0.6 percentage points); and Dubuque, Iowa (up 0.5 percentage points).

While the nation’s serious delinquency rate remains at a 14-year low, 23 metropolitan areas recorded small annual increases in their serious delinquency rates. Enid, Oklahoma, logged the highest annual gain (up 0.4 percentage points), followed by Dubuque, Iowa (up 0.2 percentage points); Hanford-Corcoran, California (up 0.2 percentage points); Panama City, Florida (up 0.2 percentage points) and Salisbury, Maryland-Delaware (up 0.2 percentage points). The remaining 18 metro areas each logged an annual increase of 0.1 percentage point. 

Consumer Research

“Overall delinquency rates remain at 20-year lows spurred on by tight underwriting standards following the onset of the Great Recession, a robust and accelerating economic cycle the past five years and the increasing underlying health of the housing economy,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “In the Southeast, the 2018 hurricane season left higher overall delinquency rates in its wake, but the region is finally on the mend. In the Midwest, we see a somewhat different picture. Of the 50 metro areas that experienced increases in overall delinquency rates in November, nearly half were in the Midwest. Still, as mortgage rates reach a three-year low, we could expect to see stabilization across markets heading into 2020.”

- Frank Martell
President and CEO of CoreLogic

Loan Performance - National

CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency to more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance.

As of November 2019, the foreclosure inventory rate was 0.4%, unchanged from November 2018.

Transition Rates - National

CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30-days past due was 1% in November 2019, up from 0.8% in November 2018. By comparison, in January 2007, just before the start of the financial crisis, the current-to-30-day transition rate was 1.2% and peaked in November 2008 at 2%.

National Transition Rate
Delinquency By State

Serious Delinquency - State

Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due including loans in foreclosure.

No states saw an annual increase in Serious Delinquency Rate

Serious Delinquency – Metropolitan Areas

Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due including loans in foreclosure.

There were 23 metropolitan areas where the Serious Delinquency Rate increased.

There were 46 metropolitan areas where the Serious Delinquency Rate remained the same

All the remaining metropolitan areas saw the Serious Delinquency Rate decrease.

Delinquency CBSA Map

Summary

Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

The nation's overall delinquency rate was the lowest for an November in at least 20 years. The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30-days past due was 1% in November 2019, up from 0.8% in November 2018.

By comparison, in January 2007, just before the start of the financial crisis, the current-to-30-day transition rate was 1.2% and peaked in November 2008 at 2%.

Despite recent stress in some areas of the country, mortgage delinquency rates continue to stay at near-record lows.

Methodology

The data in this report represents foreclosure and delinquency activity reported through November 2019. The data in this report accounts for only first liens against a property and does not include secondary liens. The delinquency, transition, and foreclosure rates are measured only against homes that have an outstanding mortgage. Homes without mortgage liens are not typically subject to foreclosure and are, therefore, excluded from the analysis. Approximately one-third of homes nationally are owned outright and do not have a mortgage. CoreLogic has approximately 85 percent coverage of U.S. foreclosure data.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided is for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast. This data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data is illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. This data is compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.


About CoreLogic

CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), the leading provider of property insights and solutions, promotes a healthy housing market and thriving communities. Through its enhanced property data solutions, services and technologies, CoreLogic enables real estate professionals, financial institutions, insurance carriers, government agencies and other housing market participants to help millions of people find, acquire and protect their homes. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

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For more information, please email Allyse Sanchez at allyse@ink-co.com.