Introduction

The CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights report features an interactive view of our mortgage performance analysis through Febuary 2020.

Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes transition rates between states of delinquency and separate breakouts for 120+ day delinquency.

“Delinquency and foreclosure rates were at a generational low in February as the U.S. unemployment rate matched a 50-year low. However, the pandemic-induced closure of nonessential businesses caused the April unemployment rate to spike to its highest level in 80 years and will lead to a rise in delinquency and foreclosure. By the second half of 2021, we estimate a four-fold increase in the serious delinquency rate, barring additional policy efforts to assist borrowers in financial distress.”

- Dr. Frank Nothaft
Chief Economist for CoreLogic

30 Days or More Delinquent - National

The 30 days or more delinquency rate for February 2020 was 3.6%.

In February 2020, 3.6% of mortgages were delinquent by at least 30 days or more including those in foreclosure.

This represents a 0.4% decline in the overall delinquency rate compared with February 2019.

30 Plus Delinquency

Delinquency Hotspots

In February, for the fifth consecutive month, no states posted a year-over-year increase in the overall delinquency rate, and Mississippi and Maine (both down 0.9 percentage points) recorded the largest declines. Only four metropolitan areas recorded small increases in overall delinquency rates and eight recorded increases in serious delinquency rates.

Consumer Research

“After a long period of decline, we are likely to see steady waves of delinquencies throughout the rest of 2020 and into 2021. The pandemic and its impact on national employment is unfolding on a scale and at a speed never before experienced and without historical precedent. The next six months will provide important clues on whether public and private sector countermeasures — current and future — will soften the blow and help us avoid the protracted, widespread foreclosures and delinquencies experienced in the Great Recession.”

- Frank Martell
President and CEO of CoreLogic

Loan Performance - National

CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency to more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance.

As of February 2020, the foreclosure inventory rate was 0.4%, unchanged from February 2019. February’s foreclosure inventory rate tied the prior 15 months as the lowest for any month since at least January 1999.

Transition Rates - National

CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30-days past due was 0.9% in February 2020, down from 1% in February 2019. By comparison, in January 2007, just before the start of the financial crisis, the current-to-30-day transition rate was 1.2% and peaked in November 2008 at 2%.

National Transition Rate
Delinquency By State

Serious Delinquency - State

Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due including loans in foreclosure.

For the 5th consecutive month, no states saw an annual increase in serious delinquency rate in February 2020.

Serious Delinquency – Metropolitan Areas

Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due including loans in foreclosure.

There were metropolitan areas where the Serious Delinquency Rate increased.

There were 40 metropolitan areas where the Serious Delinquency Rate remained the same

All the remaining metropolitan areas saw the Serious Delinquency Rate decrease.

Delinquency CBSA Map

Summary

Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

The nation's overall delinquency rate was the lowest for a February in at least 20 years. The rate for early-stage delinquencies – defined as 30 to 59 days past due – was 1.8% in February 2020, down from 2% in February 2019. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due in February 2020 was 0.6%, unchanged from February 2019. The serious delinquency rate – defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure – was 1.2% in February 2020, down from 1.4% in February 2019.

February marked the 26th consecutive month of falling annual overall delinquency rates. However, as the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to impact the economy, and claims for unemployment insurance reach record highs, homeowners are at an increased risk of becoming delinquent in the coming months — with the risk for borrowers in negative equity being even higher.

While the share of homes in negative equity fell to 3.5% at the start of 2020, home prices are forecasted to slow drastically over the next several months, which could drive down equity. States with already-high negative equity share, including Louisiana, Connecticut, Maryland and Illinois, are most at risk for increases in delinquencies.

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Methodology

The data in this report represents foreclosure and delinquency activity reported through February 2020. The data in this report accounts for only first liens against a property and does not include secondary liens. The delinquency, transition, and foreclosure rates are measured only against homes that have an outstanding mortgage. Homes without mortgage liens are not typically subject to foreclosure and are, therefore, excluded from the analysis. Approximately one-third of homes nationally are owned outright and do not have a mortgage. CoreLogic has approximately 85 percent coverage of U.S. foreclosure data.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided is for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast. This data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data is illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. This data is compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.


About CoreLogic

CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), the leading provider of property insights and solutions, promotes a healthy housing market and thriving communities. Through its enhanced property data solutions, services and technologies, CoreLogic enables real estate professionals, financial institutions, insurance carriers, government agencies and other housing market participants to help millions of people find, acquire and protect their homes. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

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