Introduction

The CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights report features an interactive view of our mortgage performance analysis through June 2020.

Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

“Three months into the pandemic-induced recession, the 90-day delinquency rate has spiked to the highest rate in more than 21 years,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “Between May and June, the 90-day delinquency rate quadrupled, jumping from 0.5% to 2.3%, following a similar leap in the 60-day rate between April and May.”

- Dr. Frank Nothaft
Chief Economist for CoreLogic

30 Days or More Delinquent - National

In June 2020, 7.1% of mortgages were delinquent by at least 30 days or more including those in foreclosure.

This represents a 3.1-percentage point increase in the overall delinquency rate compared with June 2019.

30 Plus Delinquency

Recession Impact on Loan Performance

The housing market is facing a paradox. The CoreLogic Home Price Index shows home-purchase demand has continued to accelerate this summer as prospective buyers take advantage of record-low mortgage rates. However, mortgage loan performance has progressively weakened since the start of the pandemic. Sustained unemployment has pushed many homeowners further down the delinquency funnel, culminating in the five-year high in the U.S. serious delinquency rate this June. With unemployment projected to remain elevated through the remainder of 2020, we may see further impact on late-stage delinquencies and, eventually, foreclosure.

CoreLogic predicts that, barring additional government programs and support, serious delinquency rates could nearly double from the June 2020 level by early 2022. Not only could millions of families potentially lose their home, through a short sale or foreclosure, but this also could create downward pressure on home prices — and consequently home equity — as distressed sales are pushed back into the for-sale market.

Recession Impact on Loan Performance

“Forbearance has been an important tool to help many homeowners through financial stress due to the pandemic,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “While federal and state governments work toward additional economic support, we expect serious delinquencies will continue to rise — particularly among lower-income households, small business owners and employees within sectors like tourism that have been hard hit by the pandemic.”

- Frank Martell
President and CEO of CoreLogic

Loan Performance - National

CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency to more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance.

The nation's overall delinquency rate for June was 7.1%. The rate for early-stage delinquencies – defined as 30 to 59 days past due – was 1.8% in June 2020, down from 2.1% in June 2019. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due was 1.8%, up from 0.6% in June 2019. The serious delinquency rate – defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure – was 3.4%, up from 1.3% in June 2019. The serious delinquency rate more than doubled from May to June, reaching its highest level since February 2015

As of June 2020, the foreclosure inventory rate was 0.3%, down from 0.4% in June 2019.

Transition Rates - National

CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30-days past due was 1% in June 2020, down from 1.1% in June 2019. The transition rate has slowed since April 2020 — when it peaked at 3.4% — as the labor market has improved since the early days of the pandemic.

National Transition Rate
Delinquency By State

Serious Delinquency - State

Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due including loans in foreclosure.

All states saw an increase in Serious Delinquency Rate in June 2020. COVID-19 hotspots continue to be impacted most, with New Jersey (up 3.7 percentage points), New York (up 3.6 percentage points), Nevada (up 3.4 percentage points) and Florida (up 3 percentage points) topping the list for serious delinquency gains.

Serious Delinquency – Metropolitan Areas

Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due including loans in foreclosure.

In June 2020, all metropolitan areas saw an increase in Serious Delinquency Rate. Miami — which has been hard hit by the collapse of the tourism market — experienced the largest annual increase at 5.1 percentage points. Other metro areas to post significant increases included Odessa, Texas (up 4.8 percentage points); Laredo, Texas (up 4.8 percentage points); McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas (up 4.6 percentage points); and Atlantic City-Hammonton, New Jersey (up 4.3 percentage points).

Delinquency CBSA Map

Summary

Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the CoreLogic Insights Blog: www.corelogic.com/insights.

CoreLogic Insights - On the Go or Download Apple App Store or Google play

Methodology

The data in the CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights report represents foreclosure and delinquency activity reported through June 2020.

The data in this report accounts for only first liens against a property and does not include secondary liens. The delinquency, transition and foreclosure rates are measured only against homes that have an outstanding mortgage. Homes without mortgage liens are not subject to foreclosure and are, therefore, excluded from the analysis. Approximately one-third of homes nationally are owned outright and do not have a mortgage. CoreLogic has approximately 75% coverage of U.S. foreclosure data.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided is for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast. This data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data is illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. This data is compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.


About CoreLogic

CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), the leading provider of property insights and solutions, promotes a healthy housing market and thriving communities. Through its enhanced property data solutions, services and technologies, CoreLogic enables real estate professionals, financial institutions, insurance carriers, government agencies and other housing market participants to help millions of people find, buy and protect their homes. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC and the CoreLogic logo are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.

Contact Us

For more information, please email Valerie Sheets at newsmedia@corelogic.com.