Hurricane Francine Moves Towards Louisiana

Storm surge flooding puts over 125,000 residential properties at risk; $1.5 billion in insured loss

Update: September 12, 2024

After a lull in the hurricane season, Hurricane Francine made landfall over coastal Louisiana on Wednesday, Sep. 11.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Francine, which is the sixth named storm of the season, made landfall over Parish of Terrebonne, Louisiana, 30 miles south-southwest of Morgan City. The storm made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Weather stations near landfall recorded peak gusts of 105 mph.

CoreLogic Estimated Insured Losses From Francine

CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ estimated Hurricane Francine insured wind and storm surge losses to be up to $1.5 billion. Losses include damage to buildings, contents, and business interruption for residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural property. The flood losses do not include precipitation-induced inland flooding and exclude losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). This estimate does not include damage to offshore property.

Wind damage to residential property is the primary driver of modeled loss. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tidal gauges recorded some minor and moderate flooding along the coastline from central Louisiana to Mississippi.

The vast majority of the modeled losses stem from damage in Louisiana with Mississippi and Alabama contributing slightly. In Louisiana, the parishes of St. Mary, Terrebonne, Lafourche, and Ascencion are expected to be hit the hardest by Hurricane Francine wind and storm surge flooding.

However, losses from Hurricane Francine should be manageable for primary carriers.

Total wind damage from Francine was limited by the sparsely populated coastal region nearest to landfall and the high degree of resilience in the built environment.

Louisiana, with its extensive coastline along the Gulf of Mexico, has a long history of hurricanes. These powerful, and often devastating storms, have shaped the state’s landscape, economy, and culture. The areas affected by Hurricane Francine are still recovering from a long history of landfalling cyclones.

Hurricanes in Louisiana Since 2005

• Hurricane Katrina which struck in August 2005 near Buras-Triumph, Louisiana, as a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph. The storm surge overwhelmed the levee system in New Orleans, leading to catastrophic flooding.
• Just weeks later, Hurricane Rita struck Louisiana in September 2005, compounding the devastation caused by Katrina. Hurricane Rita made landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border as a Category 3 storm, causing significant damage in southwestern Louisiana.
• In 2008, Hurricane Gustav made landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana, as a Category 2 hurricane. Gustav caused extensive damage to infrastructure and homes, particularly in the Baton Rouge area.
• In 2020, Louisiana faced an unprecedented hurricane season with multiple landfalls. In August of that year, Hurricane Laura, a Category 4 storm, made landfall near Cameron, Louisiana. Laura brought devastating winds and storm surge, causing widespread damage and fatalities.
  • Soon after, Hurricane Delta struck the same region, exacerbating the damage and challenging recovery efforts.
• In August 2021, Hurricane Ida made landfall near Port Fourchon, Louisiana, as a powerful Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 150 mph. Ida caused catastrophic damage, particularly in the southeastern parishes. According to the Insurance Information Institute (III), insured losses from Ida (in 2023 dollars) are $40.5 billion.

Hurricane Francine is now joining that extensive list of Louisiana landfalling hurricanes, but it should rank well below previous storms in terms of impact to the insurance industry as a whole.

Louisiana has made large strides in recent years to better ensure property is resilient to hurricane damage. After the string of landfalling hurricanes in the 2020 and 2021 season, Louisiana updated its state-wide building code to the 2021 IRC (from the 2015 edition). Building code enforcement has been mandatory since 2008.

Building code adoption and enforcement earned Louisiana rating of 91 in the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety’s Rating the States report. In addition, the Louisiana Department of Insurance recently began administering a program to provide grants to homeowners to update their roofs to meet the IBHS’ FORTIFIED Roof standard.

Risk Quantification and Engineering (RQE®) and Navigate™ model users can download pre-landfall hazard-based proxy events from the Client Resource Center (CRC).

Storm Surge Flooding in Louisiana

Any landfalling hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico poses a significant coastal flooding, or storm surge, threat to life and property. The degree of storm surge inundation depends on several factors, including the storm’s width, speed, and intensity (e.g., wind speed).

CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ estimated that nearly 67,000 residential properties with a combined reconstruction cost value (RCV) of $15.9 billion are at risk of storm surge flooding if Tropical Storm Francine makes landfall as a Category 1 hurricane and maintains its current forecasted track. If warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear allow Francine to intensify further to a Category 2 hurricane, then over 125,000 homes with a combined RCV of $31.0 billion are at risk of storm surge flooding (Tables 1 and 2).

As of Tuesday, Sep. 10, the NHC estimated storm surge depths of 5 to 10 feet above ground surface from the Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Port Fourchon, Louisiana. From Port Fourchon to the mouth of the Mississippi River in the east (Figure 2), 4 to 7 feet of surge is possible.

The largest concentration of residential properties at risk of storm surge is in the Houma-Thibodaux metro area found further to the east of the state. If the current storm track holds, then the Houma-Thibodaux area will be on the right, or eastern, side of the storm center where the worst severe storm surge typically occurs.

The central coastal region of Louisiana that in the crosshairs of Tropical Storm Francine’s strongest winds is fairly remote, potentially limiting the amount of wind damage. The area is home to several wildlife refuges, with the nearest population centers of Lafayette and Baton Rouge located 25 and 60 miles inland, respectively. As of Tuesday, Sep. 10, there is a moderate probability of hurricane-force winds in Lafayette, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans.

Inland flooding due to heavy precipitation is a potential hazard not just in Louisiana but across the southern U.S.

Flash and riverine flooding of the Mississippi River and its tributaries is possible. The NHC forecasts moderate flash flood risk across south Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. Slight flash flood risk extends north into Missouri and Kentucky.

Future Francine Updates

CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ will continue to monitor Tropical Storm Francine. Updates will be provided after landfall or if additional data becomes available.

Contact: Please email [email protected] with questions about Tropical Storm Francine or any CoreLogic event response notifications. Please visit www.hazardhq.com for updates and information on catastrophes across the globe.

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