Helene Insured Loss Estimate Updated, Gap Becomes Clear

Originally posted September 23, 2024

Helene will be the season’s eighth named storm and potentially fourth U.S. landfall; CoreLogic estimated 25,000 homes at risk of storm surge flooding; estimated wind and storm surge insured losses between $3B and $5B; CoreLogic onsite in coastal Florida to aid in recovery and inspect damage; CoreLogic updated Hurricane Helene industry insured loss estimate to $10.5B – $17.5B

Update: October 4, 2024

The aftermath of Hurricane Helene highlighted the importance of insurance, especially for damage from flood, across both coastal states and those located further inland where hurricane and flood risk may be perceived to be lower.

The Category 4 hurricane brought damaging winds and record-setting storm surge tides to the Florida coast. Despite making landfall near the Aucilla River in the Big Bend region of Florida, storm surge flooding damaged property up the entire gulf coast of the state. Nearer to landfall, hurricane-force winds in excess of 90 mph damaged homes in Perry, FL and into Georgia in Valdosta. Even far from the coast, heavy and continuous rain fell over an enormous part of the southeastern U.S. with notable losses in western North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia causing entire towns to flood.

CoreLogic Updated Industry Insured Loss Estimate: $10.5 – $17.5B

CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ updated its industry insured and uninsured loss estimates using newly available observed wind speed, storm surge depth and precipitation data. The team estimated that Hurricane Helene caused $30.5 – $47.5 billion (Table 1) in total wind and flood damage (including both insured and uninsured losses) across 16 states. The insurance industry, including both private companies and the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) will provide funds for recovery to home and business owners across the impacted states. Total insured wind and flood losses are expected to be between $10.5 – $17.5 billion.

Damage From Wind

Wind damage caused approximately $4.5 – $6.5 billion of insured loss to the industry. The majority of the modeled insured wind losses are in Georgia and Florida with tropical storm-force winds in South Carolina and North Carolina contributing additional losses. The remoteness of the landfall location is predominantly responsible for the distribution of insured wind losses. The majority of Florida insured wind losses were in Perry, a small town of about 7,000 residents. Weather stations in Valdosta, GA recorded lower wind speeds however it is a much larger city (population of 55,000) with a greater amount of property exposed to damaging gusts. Tropical storm-force gust observations as far as Charlotte, NC are responsible for damage to older, more vulnerable structures in the area (Figure 1).

Damage From Flooding

Damage from coastal and inland flooding was widespread and devastating.

The NFIP is expected to provide approximately $4.5 – $6.5 billion of insurance for to homeowners across Florida and the southeastern U.S. for recovery. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tidal gauges in the Tampa Bay and St. Petersburg area recorded historic tidal levels. Reports indicate extensive damage to property in the area. The Tampa/St. Petersburg area is home to a high concentration of coastal property especially commercial structures like hotels and condominiums.

Spotlight: North Carolina Flooding

Images and reports from North Carolina showed the power of flood waters. Western North Carolina is particularly mountainous and exhibits a specific type of flood damage pattern. During heavy rainfall events — like what occurred during Helene — flood waters channel into narrow paths, severely inundating the valleys between peaks (Figure 1). Development like roads, agriculture, and homes are often in the areas next to the river in valleys because of the nutrient-rich soil and flat terrain, making construction easier. Unfortunately, these are areas frequently affected during heavy rainfall events.

The Growing Problem of the Insurance Gap

Rebuilding in the aftermath of a devastating flood event is an emotionally, physically, and financially challenging prospect. Recovery funds in the form of a paid insurance claim from either private insurance market or the NFIP will alleviate at least some of the financial aspect of rebuilding.

Standard homeowners’ insurance policies typically do not include coverage for flood damage. Homeowners must buy it separately, and most often from the NFIP. NFIP policies make up nearly 95% of flood insurance policies in the U.S. because it is always available. However, flood insurance is not a requirement unless a home has a federally backed mortgage and built within the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) also known as the 100-year flood zone. Lenders do not require homes without a mortgage or those outside the SFHA to have flood insurance.

Areas outside the SFHA are also at risk to flooding, as seen across western North Carolina and other states in the southeastern U.S. during Helene. A significant portion of the losses from this hurricane are likely to go uninsured, leaving the individual property owner responsible for paying for repairs.

Future Hurricane Helene Updates

CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central will continue to monitor the impacts of Hurricane Helene. At this moment, no further updates are expected unless new developments from this event occur.

Update: October 1, 2024

The CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ Event Response Team is currently working on an updated industry insured loss estimate from Hurricane Helene.

With rescue and recovery efforts underway and the remnants of Hurricane Helene dissipated, a deeper understanding of the impact in the U.S. becomes clearer. The CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central Event Response Team was on-site in Florida aiding in recovery efforts to flooded communities like those on Cedar Key, FL.

The team also collected images and data noting the type and extent of wind and flood damage around the Big Bend region near where Helene made landfall. The team was unable to travel to the inland areas in North Carolina and beyond that were most heavily impacted by precipitation-induced flooding. In Perry, FL, close to where Helene made landfall, wind gusts damaged even well-built roofs including commercial structures (Figure 1).

According to the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety (IBHS), once air is able to penetrate beneath the roof of a structure, whether though the multiple layers of a discontinuous metal roof pictured in Figure 1 or via loose flashings, partial collapse of the roof is likely.

Damage to the roof provides a path for water intrusion leading to additional damage to the structure and contents of the building.

Hurricane Helene brought catastrophic rainfall (Figure 2) that lead to widespread inland flooding across multiple states, in addition to destructive storm surge along almost the entire Florida Gulf Coast.

The storm’s heavy rains caused rivers to overflow, submerging homes, roads, and infrastructure. As of Monday, Sept. 30, floodwaters remain high in many of the affected areas.

The highest recorded rainfall total was 30 inches near Busick, NC. Other notable amounts include 9.87 inches in Asheville, NC, which broke a 106-year-old two-day rainfall record. The flooding was so intense that it submerged entire small towns, causing significant damage to homes and businesses. South Carolina also faced heavy rainfall and flooding, particularly in the northern regions. Atlanta also experienced a record-breaking 11.12 inches over 48 hours.

Imagery from western North Carolina and other parts of Appalachia show entire towns underwater as rivers exceeded their banks, inundating the surrounding areas. Much of the flooding impacted homes outside the high-risk zones, known as the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) or 100-year flood zone as per the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).

According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in 2021, there were nearly 139,000 NFIP policy holders in North Carolina. The NFIP covers only 1% of structures in Buncombe, Haywood, and Transylvania Counties in western North Carolina. Of the nearly 2,000 policies in those select counties, about half are in the SFHA and the others are outside. But this is only a portion of the homes in those counties, about 1.1%; many are uninsured against flooding. The gap between the total damage and what the insurance market (both private and the NFIP) covers will be large, leaving many with few options to rebuild and recover. Increasing flood insurance penetration in the flood-prone counties across the southeastern U.S., especially in areas designated as lower risk, is pertinent to a more resilient nation.

Coastal Flooding

Hurricane Helen’s enormous size and strength, traveling north-northeast in the Gulf of Mexico, pushed a devastating amount of water towards coastal Florida. During this time, several National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tidal gauges in Florida recorded major flooding. The storm surge reached unprecedented levels, particularly in the Big Bend region in Cedar Key (Figure 3) and the Tampa-St. Petersburg metro area.

In the Big Bend region, the peak storm surge was estimated to have reached more than 15 feet above ground level. Cedar Key, FL experienced an estimated 9.3 feet of inundation and a peak surge of 10.33 feet, surpassing the town’s previous record from an 1896 hurricane. Storm surge damage to unelevated homes and first floors was apparent during the on-site inspection (Figures 4 and 5).

The Tampa-St. Petersburg metro area also saw record-breaking surge levels, with inundation of 6 to 7.2 feet above ground level recorded by tidal gauges. Tidal gauges recorded extensive storm surge flooding in the Florida towns of Clearwater Beach, Ft. Myers Beach, and Naples.

Future Hurricane Helene Updates

CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central will continue to monitor the impacts of Hurricane Helene. The data collected during the site visit will be considered in addition to more and better observational data to create an updated industry insured loss estimate. An update will be available in the next few days.

Update: September 27, 2024

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Helene, which is the eighth named storm of the season, made landfall as a powerful Category 4 hurricane in Florida’s Big Bend region at approximately 11:10 PM EDT (03:10 UTC). The storm came ashore just east of the mouth of the Aucilla River, roughly 10 miles (15 km) west-southwest of Perry, Florida. At the time of landfall, Helene’s maximum sustained winds were estimated at 140 mph (225 km/h).

Helene is a very large hurricane with a radius of maximum wind of nearly 35 miles (~56 km). This radius is comparable to the size of 2005 Hurricane Katrina. Additionally, Helene made landfall roughly 6.2 miles (~10 km) northwest of where Hurricane Idalia struck in 2022 and roughly 21.7 miles (~35 km) northwest of Debby’s landfall on August 5. This tropical storm landfall pattern highlights how areas in the region can be exposed to compound risk.

Hurricane Helene prompted advisories for nearly all counties in the state.

At the time of landfall, storm surge was forecast at up to 20 feet between the Aucilla River and Chassahowitzka River. Tampa Bay was forecast to see storm surge of up to 8 feet. Outside of Florida, the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina may be impacted by surge of up to 3 feet.

This hurricane is the most powerful storm to ever hit the Florida Big Bend, bringing extreme winds and flooding to the region. On Friday, Sept. 27, the storm surge affecting this region and parts of Florida’s west coast is expected to have subsided. Strong wind gusts will continue to spread inland across Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly in the southern Appalachians’ higher elevations, bringing potential power outages.

Life-threatening flash flooding, including urban flooding and significant landslides, is forecasted to impact portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday. In northwestern and northern Florida, as well as throughout the Southeast, widespread flash and urban flooding is also expected. Significant river flooding is likely, and some areas may experience major or record-breaking levels.

CoreLogic Initial Estimated Insured Losses From Helene

CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ estimated Hurricane Helene insured wind and storm surge losses to be between $3 billion and $5 billion, with significant uncertainty due to the wind field. CoreLogic is continuing to monitor the event.

Losses include damage to buildings, contents, and business interruption for residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural property. The flood losses do not include precipitation-induced inland flooding and exclude losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). This estimate does not include damage to offshore property.

Losses from Helene are predicted to be split roughly evenly between Florida and Georgia. The area of landfall around Perry, Florida has some of the least stringent wind resistance design standards, which is likely contributing to losses.

Risk Quantification and Engineering (RQE®) and Navigate™ model users can download pre-landfall hazard-based proxy events from the Client Resource Center (CRC).

Future Hurricane Helene Updates

CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central will continue to monitor the impacts of Hurricane Helene. An update will be available early in the week of Monday, Sept. 30, 2024.

Update: September 25, 2024

The NHC forecast shows maximum sustained wind speeds greater than 125 mph prior to landfall with much higher gusts possible.

Risk Quantification and Engineering (RQE®) and Navigate™ model users can download pre-landfall hazard-based proxy events from the Client Resource Center (CRC). The Big Bend region of Florida, where winds are forecast to be the most extreme, is sparsely populated relative to the western coast of the peninsula or the panhandle, which should limit insured losses. However, NHC forecast shows that Helene will be quite strong and move forward quickly at landfall. This opens the possibility of hurricane-force winds affecting property much further inland. Currently, a hurricane watch extends from the coastline inland into southern Georgia.

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Along Florida Coast

Any landfalling hurricane along the Gulf Coast poses a significant risk of coastal flooding, or storm surge, which can threaten life and property. The degree of storm surge inundation depends on several factors, including the storm’s width, speed, intensity (e.g., wind speed), as well as the current tidal period (high or low tide) at the time of impact.  CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ estimated that nearly 25,000 residential properties with a combined reconstruction cost value (RCV) of $5.6 billion are at risk to storm surge flooding (Table 1). This estimate assumes that Helene will make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane and keeps its current forecasted track.

As of Wednesday, Sep. 25, the NHC estimated storm surge depths of 10 to 15 feet above ground surface from the western edge of Apalachee Bay to Chassahowitzka. Storm surge flood depths of 5 to 8 feet are possible in the Tampa Bay/St. Petersburgh area (Figure 2).

When Did the Last Hurricane Hit Florida’s Big Bend?

In the Big Bend of Florida, hurricanes are not uncommon. Several hurricanes over the past two years have made landfall along Florida’s Big Bend coastline. Earlier in 2024, Hurricane Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph.

In 2023, Hurricane Idalia underwent rapid intensification prior to making landfall as a Category 3 hurricane over Keaton Beach, Florida (Figure 3). CoreLogic estimated insured losses to residential and commercial properties from wind and storm surge flooding were less than $2 billion.

The NHC forecast shows that Hurricane Helene will make landfall at a similar strength to Idalia but hit the coastline further to the west. One factor that limited Hurricane Idalia’s final insured loss impact was the remoteness of the landfall location.

Helene’s track is forecast to be more westerly, which means that impacts in the state capital of Tallahassee are likely to be more significant than recent Big Bend landfalling hurricanes.

Future Hurricane Helene Updates

CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ will continue to watch Hurricane Helene. An update will be available the day after landfall on Friday, Sep. 27, 2024.

Contact: Please email [email protected] with questions about Hurricane Helene or any CoreLogic event response notifications. Please visit www.hazardhq.com for updates and information on catastrophes across the globe.

Update: September 24, 2024

Tropical Storm Helene, the eight named storm of the hurricane season, is currently tracking towards Apalachee Bay in Florida’s Big Bend region. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory #5, Tropical Storm Helene should intensify to hurricane strength and make landfall as a Category 3 storm on Thu, Sep. 26. Currently, the NHC forecast indicates a landfall over Apalachee Bay then continuing north, passing Tallahassee, FL to the east (Figure 1) and eventually Atlanta, GA as a tropical storm. The NHC forecast shows maximum sustained wind speeds greater than 115 mph prior to landfall with gusts much higher gusts. A hurricane watch extends inland from coastal Florida to the Georgia border.

The NHC forecast shows maximum sustained wind speeds greater than 115 mph prior to landfall with gusts much higher gusts. A hurricane watch extends inland from coastal Florida to the Georgia border.

Risk Quantification and Engineering (RQE®) and Navigate™ model users can download pre-landfall hazard-based proxy events from the Client Resource Center (CRC).

Future Helene Updates

CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ will continue to monitor Tropical Storm Helene. Another update will be provided on Wednesday, Sep. 25.

Contact: Please email [email protected] with questions about Tropical Storm Helene or any CoreLogic event response notifications. Please visit www.hazardhq.com for updates and information on catastrophes across the globe.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 Forms

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) started issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (PTC 9). The NHC and most models agree that this system will organize and strengthen to where it will be officially named Tropical Storm Helene.

As of 2 p.m. ET on Monday, Sep. 23, PTC 9 is currently in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The NHC expects the system to organize as it continues northwest towards the Yucatan Peninsula before turning north-northeast (Figure 1). The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle regions are currently in the center of the NHC Cone of Uncertainty. However, impacts in Tampa Bay and St. Petersburgh cannot be ruled out.

The speed at which PTC 9 organizes and becomes a tropical storm then hurricane in addition to interactions with land will dictate the system’s final strength and landfall location. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico are extremely high, providing fuel for the system to intensify. There are few environmental factors such as vertical wind shear over the eastern Gulf of Mexico to prevent intensification. Rapid intensification, an increase in maximum winds of 24 mph in a 24-hour period, is possible prior to landfall.

Hazards to Land

As of the 2 p.m. ET advisory on Monday, Sep. 23, the NHC forecasts heavy rainfall over  the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Upwards of 12 inches of rain is possible locally. The NHC forecasts tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches in western Cuba and the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Future PTC 9/Helene Updates

CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ will continue to watch PTC 9/Helene. An update will be available on Tuesday, Sep. 24, 2024.

Contact: Please email [email protected] with questions about PTC9/Helene or any CoreLogic event response notifications. Please visit www.hazardhq.com for updates and information on catastrophes across the globe.

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