Insurable losses in Taiwan may be substantial with rare west coast landfall
Typhoon Krathon is heading towards the Taiwanese west coast and expected to bring catastrophic winds, devastating storm surge, and heavy rain to the island.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Warning #17, Yagi is currently south of Taiwan with maximum sustained winds of 144 mph (232 km/h), making this storm equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane. The JTWC forecast shows Typhoon Krathon turning slowly north then northeast towards the Kaohsiung on the southwestern coast of Taiwan.
After landfall, the typhoon will continue northeast along the long axis of the island, weakening prior to passing Taipei to the west (Figure 1).
Pre-Landfall Proxy Events
Requires Asia Typhoon Model RQE License
The forecast shows landfall will be in the early morning hours on Thursday, Oct. 3 local time. Fortunately, Typhoon Krathon should weaken on its approach toward land. As of Tuesday, Oct. 1, Typhoon Krathon will have maximum sustained winds as high as 120 mph (194 km/h) by landfall.
Risk Quantification and Engineering (RQE®) and Navigate™ model users can download pre-landfall hazard-based proxy events from the Client Resource Center (CRC).
The Taiwanese west coast is home to highest concentration of exposure on the island. The west coast is usually protected from typhoons that form in the Pacific Ocean and travel west towards the island, which typically make landfall in the sparsely populated, mountainous west coast. The largest population centers including large commercial ports and chip manufacturing plants are housed on the west coast because it is protected from typhoons. The damage from a direct landfall to the west coast could be large.
In 1997, Typhoon Thelma made landfall just north of Kaohsiung in southwestern Taiwan as a Category 1-strength storm. Typhoon Gloria in 1996 similarly affected the west coast of Taiwan when it made landfall as a Category 2-equivalent storm over Kaohsiung. According to the Royal Observatory of Hong Kong, Gloria caused extensive damage to agriculture and property in Taiwan. At the time, in 1996, total economic damage was estimated to be $NT 580 million (USD 18.2 million).
The CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ team will watch Typhoon Krathon and its impacts in Taiwan. Added analysis of the impacts will be provided after landfall.
CONTACT: Please email [email protected] with questions about Typhoon Krathon or any CoreLogic event response notifications. Visit www.hazardhq.com for updates and information on catastrophes across the globe.
Pre-Landfall Proxy Events
Requires Asia Typhoon Model RQE License
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