Chat
Chat with Sales Hours: Monday-Friday 8:30 a.m. - 4:30 p.m. (CST)
Contact Sales
Call Sales Toll-Free 1-(866) 774-3282 Hours: Monday-Friday 7 a.m. - 5 p.m. (CST)
Product Login
Product Log-in
Product Support
Product Support
Email Sales
Contact Sales
After Hours
  • Support
  • Sign In Sign In
  • AUS NZ UK
CoreLogic - Home
  • Solutions
    view solutions by:

    Data Solutions

    • Lead Generation
    • Property Data
    • Location Intelligence

    Real Estate

    • Multiple Listing Enterprise
    • Agent & Broker

    Mortgage

    • Origination
    • Servicing
    • Appraisal
    • Commercial Property Tax

    Insurance

    • Hazard Risk
    • Catastrophe Risk Management
    • Risk Evaluation
    • Underwriting Automation
    • Weather Verification
    • Claims Automation
    • Restoration
    • INTRCONNECT

    Mortgage Lenders

    • Origination

    Mortgage Servicers

    • Residential Property Tax
    • Default & Loss Mitigation
    • Portfolio Insight & Monitoring

    Mortgage Appraisers

    • Appraisal

    Real Estate Agents & Brokers

    • Agents & Brokers

    Real Estate MLS

    • Multiple Listing Enterprises

    Commercial Real Estate Owners

    • Commercial Property Tax

    Marketing Departments

    • Property Data

    Insurance Underwriters

    • Risk Evaluation
    • Underwriting Automation
    • Hazard Risk
    • Catastrophe Risk Management

    Insurance Risk Managers

    • Risk Evaluation
    • Hazard Risk
    • Catastrophe Risk Management

    Insurance Claims

    • Claims Automation
    • Restoration Contractors
    • Weather Verification

    Construction Contractors

    • Restoration Contractors

    General

    • Location Intelligence
    • Lead Generation
    • Data Solutions
  • Resources

    Reports

    • Climate Change
    • Construction Cost Update
    • Construction Insights
    • Home Price Insights
    • Homeowner Equity Insights
    • Loan Performance Insight
    • Mortgage Fraud
    • Property Tax Delinquency
    • Single-Family Rent Index

    Insight Blogs

    • Hazard HQ
    • Office of Chief Economist
    • Affordable Housing
    • Homebuying
    • Insurance
    • Other Articles

    More Resources

    • Case Studies
    • White Papers
    • Podcasts
    • Quick Takes
  • Company
    • About
    • Leadership
    • Newsroom
    • Contact
    • Careers
  • Search
CoreLogic - Home
  • Solutions
  • Resources
  • Company

    • About
    • Leadership
    • Newsroom
    • Contact
    • Careers
  • Accounts

    • Products Sign-in
  • Contact

    • Sales Contact
    • Product Support
  • Regions

    • Australia
    • New Zealand
    • United Kingdom
  • Social

    • Facebook
    • Instagram
    • Linkedin
    • Twitter
    • Youtube
Solutions
VIEW BY:
  • Data Solutions

    • Lead Generation
    • Property Data
    • Location Intelligence
  • Real Estate

    • Multiple Listing Enterprise
    • Agent & Broker
  • Mortgage

    • Origination
    • Servicing
    • Appraisal
    • Commercial Property Tax
  • Insurance

    • Hazard Risk
    • Catastrophe Risk Management
    • Risk Evaluation
    • Underwriting Automation
    • Weather Verification
    • Claims Automation
    • Restoration
    • INTRCONNECT
  • Mortgage Lenders

    • Origination
  • Mortgage Servicers

    • Residential Property Tax
    • Default & Loss Mitigation
    • Portfolio Insight & Monitoring
  • Mortgage Appraisers

    • Appraisal
  • Real Estate Agents & Brokers

    • Agents & Brokers
  • Real Estate MLS

    • Multiple Listing Enterprises
  • Commercial Real Estate Owners

    • Commercial Property Tax
  • Marketing Departments

    • Property Data
  • Insurance Underwriters

    • Risk Evaluation
    • Underwriting Automation
    • Hazard Risk
    • Catastrophe Risk Management
  • Insurance Risk Managers

    • Risk Evaluation
    • Hazard Risk
    • Catastrophe Risk Management
  • Insurance Claims

    • Claims Automation
    • Restoration Contractors
    • Weather Verification
  • Construction Contractors

    • Restoration Contractors
  • General

    • Location Intelligence
    • Lead Generation
    • Data Solutions
Resources
  • Reports

    • Climate Change
    • Construction Cost Update
    • Construction Insights
    • Home Price Insights
    • Homeowner Equity Insights
    • Loan Performance Insight
    • Mortgage Fraud
    • Property Tax Delinquency
    • Single-Family Rent Index
  • Insight Blogs

    • Hazard HQ
    • Office of Chief Economist
    • Affordable Housing
    • Homebuying
    • Insurance
    • Other Articles
  • More Resources

    • Case Studies
    • White Papers
    • Podcasts
    • Quick Takes

Home / Intelligence / Home Price Growth Has Turned the Corner

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Selma Hepp
Selma Hepp
Chief Economist
View Profile
  • November 10, 2021

Home Price Growth Has Turned the Corner

Monthly home price gains have started slowing in most U.S. metros

The latest release of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index indicated that home price growth remained strong in August, clocking in a 19.8% annual growth, same as the month prior. Nevertheless, after 10 months of double-digit annual home price growth nationally, home price acceleration is showing signs of reprieve. In addition to the national growth rate stalling, the 10-city annual growth slowed from 19.2% to 18.6%, and the 20-city annual rate was down from 20% to 19.7% in August, non-seasonally adjusted.

At the same time, seasonally adjusted monthly changes in the three indexes further highlight the slowing trend. After the onset of the pandemic and home price growth taking a step back in May and June of 2020, monthly price increases surged with all three indexes, seeing a 1.5% monthly jump by August 2020. The last time home prices increased at such a pace was in 2013. By April of this year, monthly increases hovered closer to 2%.

With limited inventories, bidding wars and perception of unsustainable price growth, buyer fatigue set in this summer, taking some pressure off monthly gains in home prices. For the last two consecutive months, monthly home price gains have trended lower. Nationally, monthly increases slowed from 1.8% in June to 1.4% in August. August monthly increase was the slowest since February 2021.  Both the 10-city[1] and 20-city[2] indexes monthly growth rates declined although the 10-city index rate slowed more notably. For both city indexes, the August monthly increase was the slowest since July 2020.  Figure 1 illustrates the trend in monthly gains for the three indexes over the last 20 months.

Figure 1 Monthly Price Growth Slowed to 1.4% in August


Among the 20 cities reported by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller, all saw slowing of monthly gains between the peak months in 2021, which varied across cities, to August 2021 (Figure 2). In Phoenix, which was seeing the strongest monthly gains in the group since March 2021 and had strongest annual home price growth for 26 consecutive months, gains slowed in August to 2.3% from 3.4% in June. Most notable slowing of monthly gains was evident in San Diego, CA, down from 2.9% in April to 1% in August, followed by San Francisco which slowed from 2.7% to 2.1%, and Seattle, WA– from 2.8% to 1.1%. As a result of the slowing in Phoenix, AZ, monthly gains in August were strongest in Tampa and Las Vegas.

Atlanta, GA reported the smallest decline in monthly gains and showed a relatively robust 2.1% gain in August, down from 2.3% in July. 

Figure 2 Seasonally adjusted monthly gains slowed in all cities between peak 2021 months and August 2021


In addition to 20 cities reported by the S&P Dow Jones Indices, CoreLogic estimates the Case Shiller Home Price Index for more than 400 other metropolitan and micropolitan areas in the U.S. Among these metropolitan areas, almost all – 92% – experienced slowing of monthly increases in August. Interestingly, the most significant decrease was among metro areas that enjoyed robust home price growth over the past year. Figure 3 lists the top 20 metropolitan areas with most significant slowing of monthly gains and highlights the peak monthly gain in 2021 compared to August. Austin, TX experienced the largest decline in monthly gains from 3.8% in May to no change in prices in August. The greater Dallas metropolitan area likewise had no monthly price growth in August. Also, Boise, ID – which has been a poster child for strong home demand over the last couple of years, also joined the group of metros with largest declines in monthly gains, as did St. George, UT.

Figure 3 Monthly gains slow notably among some areas with prior rapid home price appreciation


Lastly, while slowing of monthly gains have generally characterized housing markets across the country, there was a group of markets that continued to enjoy stronger monthly gains in August. Out of 17 markets with monthly increases, eight were in the South East, including Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina and Georgia. This is not surprising as these markets are popular among snow birds and with winter peeking it’s cold head and the ability of some workers to continue to work from home, areas that offer warm weather and affordability appear to remain popular among homebuyers. Even when looking at areas that rank with highest monthly gains in August, 13 out of the top 20 are in Florida.

Going forward, annual home price growth is likely to continue slowing from the current rate of almost 20%. According to the latest CoreLogic HPI Forecast, home price growth will gradually slow over the next year, reaching a 2% annual gain in September 2022. Deceleration may be more prominent in areas where home price growth has outpaced the income growth, pricing local households out of the market. In Phoenix, AZ, which has ranked as the strongest home price growth market among the locals and included in the 20-city Case Shiller Index for 26 consecutive months, home prices may take a dip and decline about 0.4% next September compared to current prices. Similarly, several markets in Texas, Wyoming, Louisiana and Idaho are forecasted to take a small dip by the fall of next year. With the current unsustainable rate of home price growth, seeing signs of gradual slowdown is a welcomed change, which suggests a housing market with a better demand-and-supply balance lies ahead.

[1] 10-City Composite Index includes the following metropolitan areas: Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco, Washington DC.

[2] The 20-city Composition index includes the additional metropolitan areas: Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Portland, Seattle And Tampa

  • Category: Home Price Insights, Intelligence, Reports
  • Tags: Home Price Index, Housing Market, Market Value
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Selma Hepp
Selma Hepp
Chief Economist
View Profile

Related Posts

Turkey Syria Earthquake
Hazard HQ

M7.5 – 7.8 Earthquake Sequence Near Turkey-Syria Border

A sequence of powerful earthquakes struck near the Turkey-Syria border, with three of the earthquakes registering magnitudes exceeding 6.5.

February 7, 2023
Dec2022HPIPromo
Blogs

U.S. Home Price Insights – February 2023

U.S. home prices continued to slow on a year-over-year basis in December 2022, moving down to 6.9%.

February 7, 2023
Jan23CSIPromo
Home Price Insights

US CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index Growth Rate Cools Further in November, Up by 7.7%

Annual U.S. home price growth continued to relax in November for the seventh straight month.

January 31, 2023

About Corelogic

  • Newsroom
  • Leadership
  • Careers
  • Ethics & Compliance

Accounts

  • Products Sign-in

Contact

  • Sales Contact
  • Product Support

Regions

  • CoreLogic Australia
  • CoreLogic New Zealand
  • CoreLogic UK

Follow & Connect

  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • Linkedin
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
© 2023 CoreLogic. All rights reserved.
  • Legal
  • Privacy Policy
  • CCPA
  • Security
  • Sitemap
  • Accessibility
  • Legal
  • Privacy Policy
  • CCPA
  • Security
  • Sitemap
  • Accessibility