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Homeowner Equity Insights

Data Through Q2 2021

Introduction

The CoreLogic Homeowner Equity Insights report, is published quarterly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes negative equity share and average equity gains. The report features an interactive view of the data using digital maps to examine CoreLogic homeowner equity analysis through the second quarter of 2021.

Negative equity, often referred to as being “underwater” or “upside down,” applies to borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Negative equity can occur because of a decline in home value, an increase in mortgage debt or both.

This data only includes properties with a mortgage. Non-mortgaged properties (that are owned outright) are not included.

Homeowner Equity Q2 2021

CoreLogic analysis shows U.S. homeowners with mortgages (roughly 63% of all properties*) have seen their equity increase by a total of nearly $2.9 trillion since the second quarter of 2020, an increase of 29.3% year over year.

*Homeownership mortgage source: 2016 American Community Survey.

 

Figure 1 National Homeowner Equity YOY Change

 

Negative Equity Falls

In the second quarter of 2021, the total number of mortgaged residential properties with negative equity decreased by 12% from the first quarter of 2021 to 1.2 million homes, or 2.3% of all mortgaged properties. On a year-over-year basis, negative equity fell by 30% from 1.8 million homes, or 3.3% of all mortgaged properties, in the second quarter of 2020.

Because home equity is affected by home price changes, borrowers with equity positions near (+/- 5%) the negative equity cutoff are most likely to move out of or into negative equity as prices change, respectively. Looking at the second quarter of 2021 book of mortgages, if home prices increase by 5%, 160,000 homes would regain equity; if home prices decline by 5%, 211,000 would fall underwater.

 

Figure 2 National Homeowner Equity YOY Change

 

COVID-19 Impact

By June 2021, consumer confidence had risen to its highest level since the onset of the pandemic. This positive sentiment was echoed by current mortgage holders in a recent CoreLogic consumer survey, which found that 59% of respondents feel extremely confident in their ability to keep current on their mortgage payments in the coming year. 

Thanks to ongoing government provisions, increased vaccine availability — enabling many to return to work and a steady income — and record homeowner equity gains, most borrowers have been able to remain current on their mortgage payments. Additionally, the majority of borrowers that fell behind on payments have a large home equity cushion that will help them avoid foreclosure.

 

“Home equity wealth is at a record level and will bolster economic activity in the coming year. Higher wealth spurs additional consumer expenditures and also supports room additions and other investments in homes, adding to overall economic activity.

-Dr. Frank Nothaft
Chief Economist for CoreLogic

 

National Aggregate Value of Negative Equity: Q2 2021

The national aggregate value of negative equity was approximately $268 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2021. This is down quarter over quarter by approximately $5.2 billion, or 1.9%, from $273.2 billion in the first quarter of 2021 and down year over year by approximately $18.9 billion, or 6.6%, from $286.8 billion in the second quarter of 2020.

Negative equity peaked at 26% of mortgaged residential properties in the fourth quarter of 2009, based on the CoreLogic equity data analysis which began in the third quarter of 2009.

 

Figure 3 National Homeowner Equity Negative Equity Share

 

“The growth in homeowner equity provides a strong financial cushion for tens of millions Americans. For those most impacted by the pandemic, equity gains will help play a critical role in staving off foreclosure. Based on projected increases in economic activity and home values over the next year, we expect to see further gains in equity and a corresponding drop in negative equity, forbearance rates and foreclosure.

-Frank Martell
President and CEO of CoreLogic

 

National Homeowner Equity

In the second quarter of 2021, the average homeowner gained approximately $51,500 in equity during the past year.

California, Washington, and Idaho experienced the largest average equity gains at $116,300, $102,900 and $97,000 respectively. Meanwhile, North Dakota experienced the lowest average equity gain in the second quarter of 2021 at $10,600.

 

Figure 4 National Homeowner Equity Average Equity Gain

 

10 Select Metros Change

CoreLogic provides homeowner equity data at the metropolitan level, in this graphic 10 of the largest cities, by housing stock are depicted. 

Negative equity has seen a recent decrease across the country. San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA, is the least challenged, with Negative Equity Share of all mortgages at 0.6%.

Figure 5 National Homeowner Equity

 

Loan-to-Value Ratio (LTV)

The graph represents National Homeowner Equity Distribution across multiple LTV Segments.

 

Figure 6 National Homeowner Equity Loan-to-Value Ratio

 

Summary

CoreLogic began reporting homeowner equity data in the first quarter of 2010; at that time, the equity picture for homeowners was rather bleak in the United States. Since then, many homes have regained equity and the outstanding balance on the majority of mortgages in this country are now equal to or in a positive position when compared to their loan balance. 

CoreLogic will continue to report on homeowner equity as it continues to adjust in communities and states across the country. To learn more about homeowner equity, visit the CoreLogic Insights page on www.corelogic.com.

Methodology

The amount of equity for each property is determined by comparing the estimated current value of the property against the mortgage debt outstanding (MDO). If the MDO is greater than the estimated value, then the property is determined to be in a negative equity position. If the estimated value is greater than the MDO, then the property is determined to be in a positive equity position. The data is first generated at the property level and aggregated to higher levels of geography.  CoreLogic uses public record data as the source of the MDO, which includes more than 50 million first- and second-mortgage liens, and is adjusted for amortization and home equity utilization in order to capture the true level of MDO for each property. Only data for mortgaged residential properties that have a current estimated value are included. There are several states or jurisdictions where the public record, current value or mortgage data coverage is thin and have been excluded from the analysis. These instances account for fewer than 5% of the total U.S. population. The percentage of homeowners with a mortgage is from the 2019 American Community Survey. Data for the previous quarter was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.

About the CoreLogic Consumer Housing Sentiment Study      

3,000+ consumers were surveyed by CoreLogic via Qualtrics. The study is an annual pulse of U.S. housing market dynamics concentrated on consumers looking to purchase a home, consumers not looking to purchase a home, and current mortgage holder. The survey was conducted in April 2021 and hosted on Qualtrics. 

The survey has a sampling error of ~3% at the total respondent level with a 95% confidence level.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Amy Brennan  at newsmedia@corelogic.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic

CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visitwww.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC and the CoreLogic logo are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Contact

For more information, please email Amy Brennan at newsmedia@corelogic.com

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