Loan Performance Insights – May 2023

Introduction

The CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights report features an interactive view of our mortgage performance analysis through March 2023.

Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes transition rates between states of delinquency and separate breakouts for 120+ day delinquency.

“The U.S. mortgage delinquency rate fell to a historic low in March, reflecting the lowest U.S. unemployment rate in more than 50 years. While a slowing economy could cause increases in job losses and mortgage delinquencies, years of home equity gains will provide borrowers who fall behind on their payments with a cushion. This equity should protect many homeowners from foreclosures. There is no current projection that the U.S. foreclosure rate will reach the same level as it did during the housing crisis more than a decade ago.”

-Molly Boesel

Principal Economist for CoreLogic

30 Days or More Delinquent – National

In March 2023, 2.6% of mortgages were delinquent by at least 30 days or more including those in foreclosure. This represents a 0.3 percentage point decrease in the overall delinquency rate compared with March 2022.

US Mortgage Delinquency Rate Drops to Historic Low in March

The overall U.S. mortgage delinquency rate declined to a new low in March, buoyed by an exceptionally strong job market. Despite regular news of major layoffs — particularly in the tech sector — April’s 3.4% unemployment rate remains near an all-time low, indicating that many workers who recently lost jobs were able to quickly find new positions, enabling them to stay current on their mortgage payments.

Nationwide, serious delinquencies also dropped to the lowest level in more than two decades in March, while foreclosures also remained near a historic low. As in previous months, several metro areas on Florida’s Gulf Coast continue to see elevated serious delinquency rates as a result of the lingering effects of last fall’s Hurricane Ian.

Loan Performance – National

CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency to more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance.

The nation’s overall delinquency rate for March was 2.6%. The rate for early-stage delinquencies – defined as 30 to 59 days past due – was 1.1% in March 2023, unchanged from March 2022. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due was 0.3%, also unchanged from March 2022. The serious delinquency rate – defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure – was  1.1% down from 1.5% in March 2022.

As of March 2023, the foreclosure inventory rate was 0.3%, unchanged from March 2022 but still near an all-time low.

Transition Rates – National

CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30-days past due was 0.5%, unchanged from March 2022.

Overall Delinquency – State

Overall delinquency is defined as 30 days or more past due including loans in foreclosure.

In March 2023, no state posted a year-over-year increase in its overall delinquency rate. The states and districts with the largest delinquency declines were Alaska and New York.

Serious Delinquency – Metropolitan Areas

Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due including loans in foreclosure.

There were three metropolitan areawhere the Serious Delinquency Rate increased.

There were 379 metropolitan areas where the Serious Delinquency Rate decreased. 

Summary

Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the CoreLogic Intelligence Blog: https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/

Methodology

The data in this report represents foreclosure and delinquency activity reported through March 2023. The data in this report accounts for only first liens against a property and does not include secondary liens. The delinquency, transition and foreclosure rates are measured only against homes that have an outstanding mortgage. Homes without mortgage liens are not subject to foreclosure and are, therefore, excluded from the analysis. Approximately one-third of homes nationally are owned outright and do not have a mortgage. CoreLogic has approximately 75% coverage of U.S. foreclosure data.

Source: CoreLogic

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