Solutions

National Delinquency Rates Dropped Below March 2020 Level in November

Loan Performance Insights Report Highlights: November 2021

  • The nation’s overall delinquency rate was 3.6% in November.
  • All stages of delinquencies showed year-over-year decreases in November.

In November 2021, 3.6% of home mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure) , which was a 2.3-percentage point decrease from November 2020 according to the latest CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report. November marked the first time since the pandemic began that the overall delinquency rate fell below the March 2020 level.

Overall Delinquency Rates

The share of mortgages that were 30 to 59 days past due — considered early-stage delinquencies — was 1.2% in November 2021, down from 1.4% in November 2020. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due was 0.3% in November 2021, down from 0.6% in November 2020.

The serious delinquency rate — defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure — was 2% in November, down from 3.9% in November 2020. Forbearance programs have kept delinquencies from progressing to foreclosure and therefore the foreclosure inventory rate — the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process — was at a 22-and-a-half-year low of 0.2% in November 2021. However, the share of borrowers behind on payments by six months or more was 1.5% in November — making up roughly 40% of the overall delinquency rate.

Figure 1: Current- to 30-Day Transition Rate Shows Sharp Decrease From Year Ago


November 2021

Stage of Delinquency: Rate of Transition

In addition to delinquency rates, CoreLogic tracks the rate at which mortgages transition from one stage of delinquency to the next, such as going from current to 30 days past due (Figure 1).

The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due was 0.6% in November 2021 — a decrease from 0.8% in November 2020. Low transition rates indicate that while the rate of mortgages in any stage of delinquency remained elevated, fewer borrowers slipped into delinquency than at the peak of delinquency rates in 2020.

Figure 2: States With the Highest and Lowest Rate of Mortgages At Least 30 Days Past Due


November 2021

State and Metro Level Delinquencies

All states posted annual decreases in their overall delinquency rates in November 2021 as the employment picture improved across the country compared to a year earlier. Figure 2 shows the states with the highest and lowest share of mortgages 30 days or more delinquent. In November 2021, that rate was highest in Louisiana at 7.3% and lowest in Idaho at 1.8%. Idaho has had one of the strongest job recoveries in the U.S. and Louisiana has had one of the weakest. As of November 2021, Idaho had recovered all the jobs lost in March and April 2020 while Louisiana had only recovered 55% of jobs lost. 

Figure 3: Percentage of Mortgages At Least 30 Days Past Due For the Ten Largest Metropolitan Areas


November 2021

Figure 3 shows the 30-plus-day past-due rate for November 2021 for 10 large metropolitan areas.[2] New York had the highest rate at 5.1%, and San Francisco had the lowest rate at 1.9%. Miami’s rate decreased 5.1 percentage points from a year earlier. Outside of the largest 10, all but one metro recorded a decrease in the overall delinquency rate. Nevertheless, elevated overall delinquency rates remain in some metros, including Houma-Thibodaux, Louisiana (11.7%); Pine Bluff, Arkansas (9.5%); Odessa, Texas (9.3%) and Laredo, Texas (9.2%).

For the first time since the onset of the pandemic, national overall delinquency dropped below the March 2020 level, a sign that mortgage performance is following the nation’s income growth. At the same time, foreclosure rates remain at historic lows. Income growth has helped to reduce past due rates and home equity build-up has reduced the likelihood of a distressed sale for families that experience financial challenges.

© 2022 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved.

[1] Data in this report is provided by TrueStandings Servicing.  https://www.corelogic.com/products/truestandings-servicing.aspx. The CARES Act provided forbearance for borrowers with federally backed mortgage loans who were economically impacted by the pandemic. Borrowers in a forbearance program who have missed a mortgage payment are included in the CoreLogic delinquency statistics, even if the loan servicer has not reported the loan as delinquent to credit repositories.

[2] Metropolitan areas used in this report are the 10 most populous Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The report uses Metropolitan Divisions where available.

Related Posts

Lounge chairs poolside on a beachfront property.
Intelligence

2021: A Banner Year for the Luxury Home Market

Increases in global wealth has spurred demand for luxury homes in both traditional markets as well as those that have not previously been considered to be luxury markets.

Home Price Index
Home Price Index

U.S. Home Price Insights

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 20.2% in May 2022 compared with May 2021