Through July 2024 With Forecasts Through July 2025
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 4.3% in July 2024 compared with July 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices decreased by 0.01% in July 2024 compared with June 2024 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will rise by 0.2% from July 2024 to August 2024 and increase by 2.2% on a year-over-year basis from July 2024 to July 2025.
Price Growth Moderates as Sales Remain Slow
Although this is the 150th consecutive month that the U.S. has seen year-over-year home price gains, monthly home price growth is starting to slip, and annual forecasts are showing smaller anticipated gains. By August, home prices are forecast to rise only 0.2%, and next year, prices will inch up by 2.2%.
Much of this sluggishness can be attributed to the high mortgage interest rates that are continuing to challenge the housing market. As buyers remain cautious, sales remain low. However, the highly anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this fall may help improve consumer purchase sentiment for the housing market.
“Housing demand continued to buckle under the pressure of high mortgage rates and unaffordable home prices, leading to a considerable slowing of home price gains during the summer. July’s prices were essentially flat from the month before, which was notably cooler than the average gain of 0.4% recorded between June and July in years prior to the pandemic and especially during the pandemic.
The question for home prices going forward is whether the upcoming rate cut from the Fed and the expected continuation of falling mortgage rates will be sufficient to motivate potential homebuyers who may start to fear a cooling labor market and continued uncertainty of a soft landing, along with anticipation around the presidential election. And while lower mortgage rates are a boost to affordability, and are likely to help buyer demand, the usual fall housing market slowdown is upon us and is likely to contain any significant surge in activity.”
Dr. Selma Hepp
– Chief Economist for CoreLogic
HPI National and State Maps – July 2024
Nationally, home prices increased by 4.3% year over year in July. No states posted annual home price declines. The states with the highest increases year over year were Rhode Island (10.6%), New Jersey (9.7%), Connecticut (8.3%), South Dakota (8.1%), and Illinois (7.5%).
HPI Top 10 Metros Change
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming), and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP code, including non-disclosure states. Below is a look at home price changes in 10 select large U.S. metros from July 2023 to July 2024, with Miami posting the highest gain at 9.1% year over year.
Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Gainesville, FL (70%-plus probability) is at a very high risk of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL; Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA; and Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL; and Ogden-Clearfield, UT are also at very high risk for price declines.
Summary
CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.
CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.
Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About Market Risk Indicator
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
Source: CoreLogic
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About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading provider of property insights and innovative solutions, working to transform the property industry by putting people first. Using its network, scale, connectivity and technology, CoreLogic delivers faster, smarter, more human-centered experiences that build better relationships, strengthen businesses and ultimately create a more resilient society. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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Media Contact
Robin Wachner
CoreLogic
[email protected]
