Through June 2024 With Forecasts Through June 2025
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 4.7% in June 2024 compared with June 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices grew by 0.3% in June 2024 compared with May 2024 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will rise by 0.3% from June 2024 to July 2024 and increase by 2.3% on a year-over-year basis from June 2024 to June 2025.
Anticipated Rate Cuts May Not be Enough to Rekindle Cooling Home Price Growth
Although this is the 149th consecutive month that the U.S. has seen year-over-year home price gains, the pace of growth is continuing to cool. Price growth increased nationally by 4.7% in June when compared with a year prior, and only one state posted double-digit gains this month. Next summer, prices are projected to slow further, only growing by 2.3% on a year-over-year basis.
The continued decline in the pace of appreciation can be linked to elevated mortgage rates. Although the Federal Reserve Board is anticipated to cut rates in September, high interest rates continue to affect affordability, and several markets in the South continue to see inventory increases that are pulling prices below last year’s numbers.
“Housing market activity essentially froze at the end of the spring homebuying season as high mortgage rates continued to compress affordability and dissuade potential homebuyers. The 0.3% gain in prices from the month before was less than half the increase seen between May and June prior to the pandemic, when the gains averaged 0.8%. In addition, cooling home prices continued to spread across more markets, and nine states reported a monthly decline, up from three states last month. The April surge in mortgage rates notably weighed on consumer sentiment, and consumers increasingly chose to respond to the anticipation of a lower mortgage rate environment later this year.”
Dr. Selma Hepp
– Chief Economist for CoreLogic
HPI National and State Maps – June 2024
Nationally, home prices increased by 4.7% year over year in June. No states posted annual home price declines. The states with the highest increases year over year were South Dakota (10.0%), New Jersey (9.3%), Rhode Island (9.2%), Connecticut (8.5%), and New Hampshire (8.2%).
HPI Top 10 Metros Change
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming), and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states. Below is a look at home price changes in 10 select large U.S. metros from June 2023 to June 2024, with Miami posting the highest gain at 10% year over year.
Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Palm Bay-Titusville-Melbourne, FL (70%-plus probability) is at a very high risk of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA; Gainesville, FL; North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL; and Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA are also at very high risk for price declines.
Summary
CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.
CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.
Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About Market Risk Indicator
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
Source: CoreLogic
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About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading provider of property insights and innovative solutions, working to transform the property industry by putting people first. Using its network, scale, connectivity and technology, CoreLogic delivers faster, smarter, more human-centered experiences that build better relationships, strengthen businesses and ultimately create a more resilient society. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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Media Contact
Robin Wachner
CoreLogic
[email protected]
