US Home Price Insights –  December 2024

Through October 2024 With Forecasts Through October 2025

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 3.4% in October 2024 compared with October 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.02% in October 2024 compared with September 2024 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results). 

Forecast Prices Nationally 

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will drop by -0.03% from October 2024 to November 2024 and increase by 2.4% on a year-over-year basis from October 2024 to October 2025. 

Pockets of Price Growth in the Northeast Standout Amid Slow National Growth 

U.S. home price growth has remained relatively flat since this summer, only eking out gains in certain pockets of the country. The Northeast has proved particularly resilient to current economic conditions despite slower job growth, elevated interest rates, and ongoing affordability concerns.  

New Jersey, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire claimed three out of the top five spots for year-over-year price gains, rising 8.1%, 7.5%, and 6.3%, respectively. Rhode Island and New Jersey prices reached new highs in October.  

Meanwhile Washington D.C., Idaho, and Montana top the list this month for the states that are furthest from their price peaks. Each location was down from its former high point by -3.5%, -2.5%, -2.1%, respectively. However, on a year-over-year basis, Washington D.C. prices are still up 4.7%. 

Despite the price declines seen in certain areas of the country, overall national price growth is expected to continue at a muted pace. Still, forecasts suggest that national single-family home prices will reach a new peak level in April 2025. Currently, the median sales price for all single-family homes in the U.S. is $385,000.  

“Similar to much of the housing market activity, home prices continued to mostly move sideways in October. A slight home price bump after a late summer decline reflects the rebound in homebuying demand resulting from a short but effective decline in mortgage rates in August. Still, as we continue to bump along during this slower time of the year for the housing market, home prices are not expected to reveal much about what’s ahead for the spring homebuying market. In the last few years though, springtime has seen home prices jump higher than before the pandemic despite elevated mortgage rates.”

Dr. Selma Hepp

– Chief Economist for CoreLogic 

HPI National and State Maps – October 2024  

Nationally, home prices increased by 3.4% year over year in October. The state of Hawaii was the only state to post an annual home price decline. The states with the highest increases year over year were New Jersey (up by 8.1%) and Rhode Island (up by 7.5%). 

HPI Top 10 Metros Change 

The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states. Below is a look at home price changes in 10 select large U.S. metros in August, with Chicago posting the highest gain at 6.4% year over year. 

Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline  

The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Provo-Orem, UT (70%-plus probability) is at a very high risk of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months.  Salt Lake City, UT; Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Rowsell, GA;  Tucson, AZ;   and Palm Bay-Titusville-Melbourne, FL; (70%-plus probability)  are also at very high risk of declines in home prices over the next 12 months. 

Summary  

CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.  

CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.  

Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.  

Methodology  

The CoreLogic HPI^™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.  

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts^™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.  

About Market Risk Indicator  

Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.   

Source: CoreLogic  

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About CoreLogic  

CoreLogic is a leading provider of property insights and innovative solutions, working to transform the property industry by putting people first. Using its network, scale, connectivity and technology, CoreLogic delivers faster, smarter, more human-centered experiences that build better relationships, strengthen businesses and ultimately create a more resilient society. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.  

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