Through August 2024 With Forecasts Through August 2025
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 3.9% in August 2024 compared with August 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by -0.1% in August 2024 compared with July 2024 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will rise by 0.1% from August 2024 to September 2024 and increase by 2.3% on a year-over-year basis from August 2024 to August 2025.
U.S. Home Price Growth Reaches Lowest Level in a Year in August
Home price growth moved up to nearly 4% year over year in August, though gains are projected to fall to less than 1% by next spring. Mortgage rates dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years the last week of September, according to Freddie Mac, but weakening consumer confidence over the job market and uncertainty around the November election could be keeping price growth expectations muted.
“While mortgage rates have dropped in recent weeks, August home sales were by still-high rates in July and August, which lowered affordability,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist for CoreLogic. “The combined impact of high prices and high mortgage rates kept a lid on price growth, with annual gains falling to the lowest level in a year and the monthly gain falling well below what is typically observed in August. Price gains in August were driven by areas in the Northeast but brought down by softening markets in Texas and Florida.“
Dr. Selma Hepp
– Chief Economist for CoreLogic
HPI National and State Maps – August 2024
Nationally, home prices increased by 3.9% year over year in August. One state posted an annual home price decline. The states with the highest increases year over year were South Dakota (10%) and New Jersey (up by 9.5%).
HPI Top 10 Metros Change
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states. Below is a look at home price changes in 10 select large U.S. metros in August, with Miami posting the highest gain at 8.9% year over year.
Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Provo-Orem (70%-plus probability) is at a very high risk of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Rowsell, GA; Salt Lake City, UT; Palm Bay-Titusville-Melbourne, FL; and Gainesville, FL (70%-plus probability) are also at very high risk of declines in home prices over the next 12 months.
Summary
CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.
CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.
Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About Market Risk Indicator
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
Source: CoreLogic
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About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading provider of property insights and innovative solutions, working to transform the property industry by putting people first. Using its network, scale, connectivity and technology, CoreLogic delivers faster, smarter, more human-centered experiences that build better relationships, strengthen businesses and ultimately create a more resilient society. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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Media Contact
Robin Wachner
CoreLogic
[email protected]