Chat
Chat with Sales Hours: Monday-Friday 8:30 a.m. - 4:30 p.m. (CST)
Contact Sales
Call Sales Toll-Free 1-(866) 774-3282 Hours: Monday-Friday 7 a.m. - 5 p.m. (CST)
Product Login
Product Log-in
Product Support
Product Support
Email Sales
Contact Sales
After Hours
  • Support
  • Sign In Sign In
  • AUS NZ UK
CoreLogic - Home
  • Solutions
    view solutions by:

    Data Solutions

    • Lead Generation
    • Property Data
    • Location Intelligence

    Real Estate

    • Multiple Listing Enterprise
    • Agent & Broker

    Mortgage

    • Origination
    • Servicing
    • Appraisal
    • Commercial Property Tax

    Insurance

    • Hazard Risk
    • Catastrophe Risk Management
    • Risk Evaluation
    • Underwriting Automation
    • Weather
    • Claims Automation
    • Restoration
    • INTRCONNECT

    Mortgage Lenders

    • Origination

    Mortgage Servicers

    • Residential Property Tax
    • Default & Loss Mitigation
    • Portfolio Insight & Monitoring

    Mortgage Appraisers

    • Appraisal

    Real Estate Agents & Brokers

    • Agents & Brokers

    Real Estate MLS

    • Multiple Listing Enterprises

    Commercial Real Estate Owners

    • Commercial Property Tax

    Marketing Departments

    • Property Data

    Insurance Underwriters

    • Risk Evaluation
    • Underwriting Automation
    • Hazard Risk
    • Catastrophe Risk Management

    Insurance Risk Managers

    • Risk Evaluation
    • Hazard Risk
    • Catastrophe Risk Management

    Insurance Claims

    • Claims Automation
    • Restoration Contractors
    • Weather Verification

    Construction Contractors

    • Restoration Contractors

    General

    • Location Intelligence
    • Lead Generation
    • Data Solutions
  • Resources

    Reports

    • Climate Change
    • Construction Cost Update
    • Construction Insights
    • Home Price Insights
    • Homeowner Equity Insights
    • Loan Performance Insight
    • Mortgage Fraud
    • Property Tax Delinquency
    • Single-Family Rent Index

    Insight Blogs

    • Hazard HQ
    • Office of Chief Economist
    • Affordable Housing
    • Homebuying
    • Insurance
    • Other Articles

    More Resources

    • Events
    • Case Studies
    • White Papers
    • Podcasts
    • Quick Takes
  • Company
    • About
    • Leadership
    • Newsroom
    • Contact
    • Careers
  • Search
CoreLogic - Home
  • Solutions
  • Resources
  • Company

    • About
    • Leadership
    • Newsroom
    • Contact
    • Careers
  • Accounts

    • Products Sign-in
  • Contact

    • Sales Contact
    • Product Support
  • Regions

    • Australia
    • New Zealand
    • United Kingdom
  • Social

    • Facebook
    • Instagram
    • Linkedin
    • Twitter
    • Youtube
Solutions
VIEW BY:
  • Data Solutions

    • Lead Generation
    • Property Data
    • Location Intelligence
  • Real Estate

    • Multiple Listing Enterprise
    • Agent & Broker
  • Mortgage

    • Origination
    • Servicing
    • Appraisal
    • Commercial Property Tax
  • Insurance

    • Hazard Risk
    • Catastrophe Risk Management
    • Risk Evaluation
    • Underwriting Automation
    • Weather
    • Claims Automation
    • Restoration
    • INTRCONNECT
  • Mortgage Lenders

    • Origination
  • Mortgage Servicers

    • Residential Property Tax
    • Default & Loss Mitigation
    • Portfolio Insight & Monitoring
  • Mortgage Appraisers

    • Appraisal
  • Real Estate Agents & Brokers

    • Agents & Brokers
  • Real Estate MLS

    • Multiple Listing Enterprises
  • Commercial Real Estate Owners

    • Commercial Property Tax
  • Marketing Departments

    • Property Data
  • Insurance Underwriters

    • Risk Evaluation
    • Underwriting Automation
    • Hazard Risk
    • Catastrophe Risk Management
  • Insurance Risk Managers

    • Risk Evaluation
    • Hazard Risk
    • Catastrophe Risk Management
  • Insurance Claims

    • Claims Automation
    • Restoration Contractors
    • Weather Verification
  • Construction Contractors

    • Restoration Contractors
  • General

    • Location Intelligence
    • Lead Generation
    • Data Solutions
Resources
  • Reports

    • Climate Change
    • Construction Cost Update
    • Construction Insights
    • Home Price Insights
    • Homeowner Equity Insights
    • Loan Performance Insight
    • Mortgage Fraud
    • Property Tax Delinquency
    • Single-Family Rent Index
  • Insight Blogs

    • Hazard HQ
    • Office of Chief Economist
    • Affordable Housing
    • Homebuying
    • Insurance
    • Other Articles
  • More Resources

    • Events
    • Case Studies
    • White Papers
    • Podcasts
    • Quick Takes

Home / Intelligence / Podcast/Vodcast / Frank Nothaft Vlog / Wildfires and Housing Markets

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Frank Nothaft
Frank Nothaft
Former Executive, Chief Economist, Office of the Chief Economist
View Profile
  • July 10, 2019

Wildfires and Housing Markets

CoreLogic Economic Outlook: July 2019

June marked the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season and the start of another arid summer in the West.  More than 500,000 acres have been burned by wildfires during the first six months of 2019, and there is increasing fire risk as the summer progresses.[1]

The bulk of wildfires are in rural locations and cause limited structure damage, but occasionally a fire explodes into an urban center.  Two recent examples in California were the Camp Fire in November 2018 and the Tubbs Fire in October 2017.  The Camp Fire incinerated about 20% of the one-family housing stock in Butte county and the Tubbs Fire destroyed about 6% of the one-family homes in the city of Santa Rosa in Sonoma county.[2]  CoreLogic estimated the value of property loss at $11 to $13 billion from the Camp fire and $5 to $7 billion from the Tubbs fire.[3]

As with other natural disasters, the damage or destruction of homes and businesses disrupts the regular cadence of income and payments and can trigger mortgage default.  (Figure 1) Within three months of each wildfire, the serious delinquency rate on home mortgages had spiked about 50% in Sonoma county and 70% in Butte county before beginning to recede. While payment forbearance programs provided by lenders, mortgage insurers, and secondary market investors can lessen the financial stress, local default rates still rise.

The significant loss of housing stock also affects the cost of shelter in affected neighborhoods.  (Figure 2) In both Sonoma and Butte counties, rent and price growth accelerated after the disaster.  At the time the wildfires struck each locale, home-price growth was running at or slower than the statewide rate; after the disasters, price growth accelerated to 4- to 7-percentage points faster than statewide growth.

The pressure on prices reflects the reduced housing stock and increased demand for shelter from displaced families.  (Figure 3) Whereas home sales in Butte county jumped 50% during the first quarter of 2019 from one year earlier, sales fell 19% in the rest of California.  Within Butte county, sales fell in Paradise, the place that bore the brunt of destruction, but jumped in neighboring communities.

Despite the acreage burned this year through June, 2019 is running well below the 10-year average year-to-date.  Let’s hope that pattern continues.

Call outs:

  • Mortgage delinquency rates spiked at least 50% after the Tubbs and Camp fires.
  • Property loss totaled $11-13 billion for the Camp fire, $5-7 billion for the Tubbs fire.
  • Housing stock loss and increased demand by displaced families add to shelter costs.
  • Rent and home-price growth accelerated after the Tubbs and Camp wildfires.
  • Home sales fell in Paradise but jumped elsewhere in Butte county after the Camp fire.

[1] National Interagency Fire Center at https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.htm

[2] Homes destroyed from Cal Fire at http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/incidents/incidents_details_info?incident_id=2277 and KCRA at https://www.kcra.com/article/santa-rosa-mayor-2834-homes-destroyed-in-tubbs-fire/12836229; one-family occupied housing stock (detached, attached, and mobile home) from Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Table C25032.

[3] See https://www.corelogic.com/press-releases/

© 2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved.

  • Category: Frank Nothaft Vlog, Intelligence, Podcast/Vodcast
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Frank Nothaft
Frank Nothaft
Former Executive, Chief Economist, Office of the Chief Economist
View Profile

Related Posts

Header Intelligence Protect storm HHQ hazard
Climate Change

2023 Severe Convective Storm Risk Report

As rising global temperatures continue to contribute to increasingly hazardous wildfire seasons, it is more important than ever for homeowners, insurers, and governments to understand the risk these hazards pose to their communities.

March 31, 2023
Construction worker framing a house
Construction Insight

Quarterly Construction Insights – Q1 2023

CoreLogic tracks construction cost for commercial, residential and agricultural construction of all types of goods (labor and materials) throughout the United States and Canada.

March 30, 2023
Jan23LPIPromo
Blogs

Loan Performance Insights – March 2023

U.S. mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates continued to hold near record lows in January.

March 30, 2023

About Corelogic

  • Newsroom
  • Leadership
  • Careers
  • Ethics & Compliance

Accounts

  • Products Sign-in

Contact

  • Sales Contact
  • Product Support

Regions

  • CoreLogic Australia
  • CoreLogic New Zealand
  • CoreLogic UK

Follow & Connect

  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • Linkedin
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
© 2023 CoreLogic. All rights reserved.
  • Legal
  • Privacy Policy
  • CCPA
  • Cookie Preferences
  • Security
  • Sitemap
  • Accessibility
  • Legal
  • Privacy Policy
  • CCPA
  • Cookie Preferences
  • Security
  • Sitemap
  • Accessibility