Get Started Read the Natural Hazard Report Read the Storm Surge Report Read the Wildfire Risk Report

California Fires [11/4 Update]

As of November 4, the outbreak of wildfires throughout California over the past 3 weeks has largely been subdued. Continuous efforts by responders under tremendously difficult conditions have led to full or near full containment for nearly all of the recent burns. The near term weather forecasts tend to indicate a greatly reduced impact from wind, but not any relief from the low humidity and high temps that could lead to more wildfire ignitions. It is possible that increasing winds could return by the weekend, which makes it imperative to continue to be vigilant for new wildfire occurrences.

While the wildfires this year have not approached the amount of destruction in either 2017 or 2018, the list below indicates the amount of damage and destruction by the most recent spate of wildfire activity.

Kincade Fire: 77,758 acres burned, 80% contained
35 damaged homes | 175 destroyed homes

Getty Fire: 745 acres burned, 79% contained
15 damaged homes | 10 destroyed homes

Maria Fire: 9,412 acres burned, 80% contained
0 damaged homes | 2 destroyed homes

46 Fire: 328 acres, 100% contained
2 damaged homes | 3 destroyed homes

Hillside Fire: 200 acres, 70% contained
18 damaged homes | 6 destroyed homes

We will continue to monitor wildfire activity and provide updates as warranted.

[NEW] 2019 Wildfire Risk Report

Over the past several years, the United States has experienced record-breaking wildfires. In 2018 alone, 8,767,492 acres burned, roughly equivalent to 74 of the 75 largest cities in the United States combined. This is the sixth highest total since modern historical records began in the mid-1900s. The CoreLogic® 2019 Wildfire Report provides insights into single-family and multifamily residential properties at risk of damage from wildfires in the United States.

Read the Report

Our Tools & Methodology

According to a 2018 study by Swiss Re, insurance has only covered 30% of the $4 trillion in a global property damage resulting from extreme natural disaster events in the past 40 years.*

In an increasingly risky world, it’s paramount to be proactive in managing your risk and exposure. Our Ph.D.-level scientists develop granular models to understand the impact Mother Nature has on our world.

* Holzheu, T., & Turner, G. (2018, March 16). Closing the natural catastrophe protection gap. Retrieved September 21, 2018.

Hazard Models

Wildfire: California Wildfires

Starting on October 10, 2019, a spate of wildfires occurred across northern and southern California, including the Saddleridge Fire, Kincade Fire, Getty Fire, Tick Fire, Maria Fire, Hillside Fire, Easy Fire, and many more.

CoreLogic provided risk analysis over the homes inside the Kincade, Tick, and Getty Fires as the perimeters become available.

California Fires October 2019

Severe Convective:
Dallas Tornado

On Sunday night, October 20, an EF2/EF3 tornado touched down in north Dallas, leaving thousands without power through Monday morning. The tornado was on the ground for about 14 to 16 miles, according to CoreLogic Tornado Path Map technology. Damage was very sporadic, but up to 9,743 unique structures were potentially impacted.

Additionally, there was large hail accompanying the severe convective storm event, up to 2.5” hail in North Texas in the city of Gainesville and up to 1.5” hail south of Dallas.

Flood: Hurrican Dorian

 

On September 6, Dorian made landfall off the coast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph. Prior to that, the northern Bahama islands of Abaco and Grand Bahama suffered through 2 days of hurricane force winds up to Category 5 (>157 miles per hour), leaving a trail of devastation. More than 60 people were killed and hundreds are still missing.

It later made its way through Halifax, Canada, and left behind wind damage, heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

On August 30, CoreLogic hosted a webinar “Command Central: Hurricane Dorian” which covered the exposure along the post, the potential wind and storm surge damage, and how to accelerate recovery. You can watch the webinar on the left.

Earthquake: Ridgecrest Earthquakes

A series of large earthquakes struck southeast California near Ridgecrest in Kern County. The largest, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake, struck on July 5 just 34 hours after a magnitude 6.4 jolted the region on July 4 with a series of large aftershocks that also occurred. While these earthquakes have been widely felt by millions, the USGS PAGER report indicates during the magnitude 7.1 earthquake approximately 46,000 people experienced the very strong to severe shaking in the immediate epicentral region where damage is expected to be the greatest. CoreLogic will provide updated insights as they come available.

Distressed Home

30 Years Later: Loma Prieta Earthquake

CoreLogic hazard experts return to the historic M6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake and explore what would have happened if it were to occur today—and what lessons can be learned from the exploration. This webinar was recorded on July 17, 2019

Contact your Account Executive or email hazardrisk@corelogic.com for the link to view.

Webinars

Videos

California Rebuilds, A CoreLogic Update

California Rebuilds, A CoreLogic Update

Watch Now
CoreLogic Housing Policy Outlook: Hurricane Florence

CoreLogic Housing Policy Outlook: Hurricane Florence

Watch Now
Santa Rosa Wildfire: Starting With Wind

Santa Rosa Wildfire: Starting With Wind

Watch Now
Aftermath From The Thomas Fire and Montecito Mudslides in California

Aftermath From The Thomas Fire and Montecito Mudslides in California

Watch Now

Blogs

Although advancements in weather forensics have made it possible to anticipate the region and severity of certain catastrophic events, it is harder to predict how demand surge may or may not affect recovery efforts following a natural disaster of any kind. 

Earthquakes have the potential to cause major destruction and disruption to society. Damage caused by earthquakes can be catastrophic and can have both a humanitarian and financial impact. So when an earthquake occurs, having a prompt understanding of potential catastrophic consequences is critical for risk managers, who rely on this information to make informed decisions about how to manage the impact of disastrous events. With services like the USGS Earthquake Notification Service (ENS) providing readily available, automated earthquake notifications, obtaining information about earthquake activity around the world is now easier than ever.

Each year, homeowners around the country endure catastrophic events such as floods, wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes, and earthquakes. These events can be highly destructive to homes, especially when they occur suddenly. In the aftermath of a disaster, appraisers and assessors often find themselves in a number of situations that make it challenging to form an opinion of value. Understanding these challenges is an important step to helping mitigate risk.

According to a recent CoreLogic Natural Hazard Press Release, the 2018 Camp and Woolsey Wildfires in California caused devastating losses between $15 and $19 billion. Because a home is most often a complete loss when it comes to wildfires, the destruction caused by these catastrophic events has been a personal and financial tragedy for many families. These and other natural hazards have forced Insurance Carriers to reevaluate the need for more accurate insurance coverage to better ensure their policyholders can be made whole again if a natural disaster should destroy their property.

Tom Jeffery and Guy Kopperud chat with Insurance Journal about what we can explain and how we can learn from the wildfires of 2017. 

Most people understand that the goal of a homeowner’s policy is to restore a home and possessions to the way they were should a catastrophic event, such as a hurricane, wreak havoc. If the building and labor cost database is not property monitored, and initial coverage and claims estimate is too low, the homeowner may not be able to fully cover the losses incurred—and that’s not a message anyone experiencing loss should hear.

Once the wind, rain and flood waters have receded it’s time to pick up the pieces and begin the process of repairing your home. One of the most vulnerable parts of your home in any weather event is the roof. Here’s 5 tips on how to repair your roof.

Catastrophes caused tremendous damage to properties causing people to lose their homes, schools and businesses. To understand the impact of natural catastrophes on mortgage delinquency, CoreLogic researched loan payment performance in Texas, after Hurricane Harvey.

Most people understand that the goal of a homeowner’ policy is to restore a home and possessions to the way they were should a natural or not-so natural disaster strike. If the coverage is too low, the homeowner may not have enough to fully cover the losses incurred.

Your Go-To for Catastrophe Insights

The past few years have been catastrophic, from blazing wildfires to powerful hurricanes battering the coasts. We know clarity is important amidst the chaos, so we want to make sure you’re finding all the information you need to be up to date in one place.

Here at Hazard HQ™ you’ll find press releases, explanations of how our data works, commentary about what kind of damage we foresee, and critical thinking on what it takes to be more resilient in the face of natural hazards—be it a hurricane, volcano, earthquake, or beyond.

We know that data can get confusing, especially as we begin to put out estimates for reconstruction cost and damage in response to any hazard event. To help shed some light on a chaotic time, we wanted to help answer some frequently asked questions.

Frequently Asked Questions

CoreLogic uses its RCV methodology which estimates the cost to rebuild the home in the event of a total loss and is not to be confused with property market values or new construction cost estimation. Reconstruction cost estimates more accurately reflect the actual cost of damage or destruction of residential buildings that would occur from hurricane-driven storm surge, since they include the cost of materials, equipment and labor needed to rebuild. These estimates also factor in geographical pricing differences (although actual land values are not included in the estimates).

Damage is the overall sum of money lost, both insured and uninsured. 

Loss, otherwise known as gross loss or ground-up damage, is the insured portion of the damage sum. It is the portion that insurance companies pay out.

This issue mostly happens with hurricanes as there’s some level of foresight to put out advance notice on numbers.

The costs associated with a hurricane have more to do with the size and the location of the storm. Early on, there are a variety of projected paths of where a storm can go, so we can’t be as certain about the scope of the damage.

It is important to consider a strong hurricane that occurs in a less densely populated area – or even a small storm that tracks through a densely populated area – could generate catastrophic storm surge. When evaluating potential damage, the number of storms that occur is not as significant as the intensity and track of where they occur. As we get closer to landfall, we can have more confidence in the dollar values associated with the storm.

However, numbers can also change for other non-tropical cyclonic phenomena. In the same way, we can be more confident in the precision of our data and its accuracy as we learn more about the event. The better the data over time, the more precise our numbers can be.

At CoreLogic, we break down the risk of damage cumulatively. If any hurricane hits, no matter the Category*, it will cause storm surge in the Extreme risk areas. These are homes that typically are closest to the coast and lowest in elevation, thus susceptible to every type of hurricane from Categories 1 to 5. Therefore, their risk of impact is Extreme.

Similarly, the strongest Category 5 hurricane will cause storm surge induced flooding furthest inland. It is listed in the table as Low risk because these hurricanes are the least likely to incur damage, not because they do less damage. However, because a Category 5 hurricane will also cause damage at more vulnerable properties, the cumulative amount of homes affected and the total RCV both increase. These hurricanes affect the same areas that weaker hurricanes do and more.

*Categories are measured on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS).

In order to develop an estimate about the rainfall, we first need a footprint of where we think the rain is going to fall, and we won’t know that until the storm is conclusive about where it’s going to make landfall and where that path will take it.

The short answer is…nothing. CoreLogic is a real estate and data analytics company. We don’t make predictions, and we’re not going to be able to tell you whether to stock up on water or canned goods or sweaters or sand bags like a weather man will.

What we can provide is a realistic assessment of how a catastrophe impacts people—their homes and businesses—and what that will look like, both insured and uninsured. We are able to do this with both our highly granular catastrophe models to determine the impact upon properties and with a team of Ph.D.-level scientists who work hard to Get The Whole Story.

Media Contact

For more information, reach out to newsmedia@corelogic.com or corelogic@ink-co.com

May Severe Weather

May Severe Weather 2019

Contact your account executive or email hazardrisk@corelogic.com for the link to view the webinar.

Insurance Solutions

Structural Risk and Valuations

Rather than rely on a standard industry percentage, get detailed intelligence on the structural risk and value of properties in your portfolio to ensure that your clients are not over or under-insured.

learn more

Natural Hazard and Catastrophe

Assess your market position by accessing reports and data that give you a complete view of the risk to your portfolio.

learn more

Roof Condition Solutions

CoreLogic offers tools to help you assess the roof conditions of prospective clients from your desktop.

learn more

Weather Verification Services

Understand the impact of severe weather to empower you to make critical business decisions about your response.

learn more