December 3, 2020 | 9:40AM PT
It can be argued that there is no real wildfire “season” anymore and that wildfires are occurring throughout the year in at least parts of the western U.S.
Today, late year wildfires broke out in Southern California, with the Bond Fire in Orange county expanding from the 3,500 acres initially reported this morning. Other fires in Riverside county have resulted in evacuations, with Red Flag warnings in effect for areas in and around Los Angeles. Southern California received above normal rainfall last year followed by a very hot summer, so there is potential for more fuel to burn than normal right now.
The primary concern for late season fires in southern California are the Santa Ana winds that amplify the fires and cause issues with increased embers. They also hinder efforts to fly aircraft for suppression. Wind gusts earlier today were measured at more than 60 miles per hour, which will make responding to these fires more difficult and more dangerous for the firefighters. These high wind-driven fires can be very dangerous to nearby residents since they can move quickly and overrun residential areas. Evacuation orders should be heeded.
Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake in Turkey and Greece
30 October 2020 | 4:46 PM GMT
On Friday, 30 October, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake struck the sea near the Turkey and Greece borders at a shallow depth. The earthquake struck some 120 miles south of the western-most section of the North Anatolian fault, the seismic source that drives the majority of risk in Turkey.
The moment tensor indicates that this was a normal faulting type event with a north-south oriented extension; this is common in the Aegean sea and surrounding region. This is a large event for a normal faulting mechanism, making it likely this was the main shock event. Events with this faulting mechanism are less likely to trigger large aftershock activity than other faulting types.
While the epicenter was in Greece, the wider population affected would certainly impact both Greece and Turkey. We are expecting the event to have a higher impact in Turkey. Reports are sparse, but there are 20 reported fully collapsed buildings in Turkey, and local tsunami flooding has occurred. The figure above shows the modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) felt from the event; we would not expect to see any damage below MMI V (Moderate). As we can see, the potential area of damage covers the majority of Samos Island in Greece as well as large parts of the wider Izmir region.
October 28, 2020 | 2:53PM CT
Zeta is currently a high-end Category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph and is expected to make landfall near New Orleans, Louisiana tonight before 7pm CT.
The Louisiana coast has been battered this season from Laura and Marco to the recent Delta--and now Zeta. Zeta's added strengthening occurred as it passed through an area of warm water temperatures and low wind shear, enabling it to strengthen considerably.
As the storm approaches the Gulf coast, storm surge as high as 9 feet will impact portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama with the highest rise of 5-9 feet expected between the Pearl River estuary, and Dauphin Island.
Hurricane conditions will begin this afternoon, and the level of damage could be exacerbated as Zeta gathers more forward speed. Offshore, Zeta is moving through an area in the northern Gulf dense with platforms but wave heights and winds are not expected to be severe enough to cause significant damage.
October 13, 2020 | 8:00AM ET
CoreLogic Estimates $0.7 Billion to $1.2 Billion in U.S. Onshore Losses From Hurricane Delta Wind and Storm Surge
According to this new CoreLogic Hurricane Delta data analysis, insured wind losses for residential and commercial properties in Louisiana and Texas are estimated to be between $0.5 billion and $0.9 billion. Insured storm surge losses are estimated to be an additional $0.2 billion to $0.3 billion. Damage to offshore structures ranges from $0.8 billion to $1.5 billion.
Hurricane Delta made landfall near Creole, Louisiana, on Friday, October 9, as a mid-Category 2 storm with a maximum sustained surface wind speed of 100 miles per hour, making Delta the second hurricane in six weeks to make landfall along the southwestern coast of Louisiana. As Hurricane Delta approached the western Louisiana coast, the storm encountered an environment of high wind shear and weakened just before landfall in Cameron Parish, about 15 miles east of where Hurricane Laura devastated communities in late August.
October 6, 2020 | 7:03PM BST
The European Windstorm Season Gets Underway With A Bang
On 30 September, the 2020-21 European Windstorm season saw its first named storm, Alex. It underwent explosive cyclogenesis, or more colloquially known as a “weather bomb,” with a drop in central pressure of nearly 40mb in 12 hours, impacting the region of Brittany in North-West France on 1 and 2 October.
A record wind speed observed on the Atlantic island of Belle- Île (west of mainland France) of 186km/h suggests that Alex may have contained a particularly hazardous feature, sometimes found within extra-tropical cyclones, known as a Sting Jet. This is a localised, cold airstream which rapidly descends from the mid-troposphere, bringing potentially very damaging winds to the surface. Owing to its relatively small footprint, a sting jet is as difficult to identify as it is to predict the possible damage on the ground.
With the exception of the record wind speed observation, the coastal weather stations in Brittany recorded windspeeds much more consistent with a high-frequency winter storm. On the ground there will be some localised damage from Alex.
As the system weakened and slowed, it advected, or transferred, significant amounts of moist air from over the Mediterranean, causing significant localised flash flooding in southeast France and northwest Italy. CoreLogic continues to monitor the impact from this event.
September 22, 2020 | 1:39PM CT
Hurricane Teddy is expected to reach Atlantic Canada as a post-tropical storm on Wednesday morning and will most likely have decreased wind speeds compared to Hurricane Dorian in 2019.
Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island should expect surge levels in addition to flash flooding due to intense rainfall. Current estimates are between 3-5 meters of surge for Prince Edward Island and 3-9 meters for Nova Scotia. Parts of Newfound and Labrador are also expected to receive rainfall of 50mm-100mm.
CoreLogic estimated the flood risk in different parts of Nova Scotia and Prince. The red in the maps below reflect extreme risk, orange is very high risk, yellow is high risk, green is moderate risk and blue is low risk.
Overall, we should less impact from wind gusts but rainfall and surge are expected to cause flooding through Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland and Labrador over the next few days.
CoreLogic will provide updates on the situation as it unfolds.
Tropical Storm Beta
September 21 | 2:51 PM CT
Tropical Storm Beta, the 21st named storm of the 2020 season, is already one month ahead of the pace set by the record 2005 season. Beta is forecasted to come ashore along the central Texas coast Monday (Sept 21st) as a Tropical Storm, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.
Taking a similar path to Hurricane Harvey in 2017, Beta is expect to meander along the Texas for the next few days, bringing heavy rain from the central to northeastern Texas coast. Unlike Harvey, extreme rainfall is expected to only be localized, due to a limited precipitation shield and the presence of dry air.
As a Tropical Storm, Beta is not expected to post a storm surge threat, nor cause widespread wind damage. However, a low tornado threat will be present while Beta is in the area.
September 16, 2020 | 1:39PM CT
Overnight, Hurricane Sally strengthened to a high-end Category 2 storm, making landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama with maximum sustained winds of 105mph. Interestingly, Sally made landfall in almost the exact same spot and on the same day, September 16, as Hurricane Ivan in 2004.
Sally was a moderate sized storm with hurricane-force winds extending up to 40 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extending as far out as 125 miles.
Hurricane Sally trended slightly eastward, producing strong storm surge in Alabama and the western end of the Florida panhandle. Early reports indicate approximately five feet of storm surge flooding in the Pensacola area. The late shift eastward made Pensacola more vulnerable to surge than originally expected 24 hours prior to landfall.
In addition, the relatively slow forward movement of the storm enabled it to push more surge water onto land. This exacerbated the flood potential by combining with the rainfall it is producing. With the hurricane slowly approaching the coast, the rainfall sourced flooding onshore is often prevented from flowing downstream to the Gulf by the surge water that is being pushed ahead of the storm and upstream. The combined effect is increased flood levels inland.
Extreme rainfall in excess of 30 inches has been reported along the Gulf Coast, resulting in widespread catastrophic flash flooding with multiple streams having already risen over 15 feet. Flooding is excepted to spread further inland as Sally slowly makes its way through southern Alabama and Georgia.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Sally has weakened and was downgraded to a Tropical Storm. CoreLogic will continue to provide updates as the situation unfolds.
The 2020 Storm Surge Report is Here
Over 7.4 million homes are at risk of storm surge. When that is compounded by economic uncertainty due to the pandemic, how will mortgage delinquencies be affected? How will natural catastrophe response and recovery change?
“Storm surge has historically been the deadliest and most destructive hazard we deal with. Now, potentially compounded by the pandemic, it has never been more important to pay attention to storm warnings and prepare for the possibility of hurricanes making landfall this year along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.” -Dr. Thomas Jeffery, Principal, Science and Analytics at CoreLogic
Our Tools & Methodology
According to a 2018 study by Swiss Re, insurance has only covered 30% of the $4 trillion in a global property damage resulting from extreme natural disaster events in the past 40 years.*
In an increasingly risky world, it’s paramount to be proactive in managing your risk and exposure. Our Ph.D.-level scientists develop granular models to understand the impact Mother Nature has on our world.
* Holzheu, T., & Turner, G. (2018, March 16). Closing the natural catastrophe protection gap. Retrieved September 21, 2018.
Tropical Cyclone: Hurricane Laura
Hurricane Laura made landfall as a powerful Category 4 storm near Cameron, Louisiana on August 27. CoreLogic monitored the storm, its impact and its aftermath.
Earthquake: M7.7 Near Cuba
A magnitude 7.7 earthquake occurred on January 28 at 2:10 PM EST, situated about 75 miles northwest of Jamaica, approximately 80 miles southwest of Cuba’s Bayamo state.
Strong ground motions have been reported in Montego Bay, Jamaica. The earthquake occurred along the northern margins of the Caribbean seismic plate and is the most powerful earthquake in this region for at least 100 years. There have been four more magnitude 6.6+ earthquakes in the region in the last 100 years.
The initial reports of isolated pockets of severe ground motion in Jamaica produce an expectation of pockets of damage to older structures or structures with inadequate seismic design. Ground motions in the capital city of Kingston, Jamaica are reported to be from weak to light. CoreLogic continues to monitor this earthquake to support their response and recovery.
Wildfire: California Wildfires
Starting on October 10, 2019, a spate of wildfires occurred across northern and southern California, including the Saddleridge Fire, Kincade Fire, Getty Fire, Tick Fire, Maria Fire, Hillside Fire, Easy Fire, and many more.
CoreLogic provided risk analysis over the homes inside the Kincade, Tick, and Getty Fires as the perimeters become available.
Severe Convective: Southeast Tornado Outbreak
On April 12 and 13, 2020, severe weather swept through the Southeast U.S. A total of 86 tornadoes tore through the region, leading to the loss of at least 34 lives. Over the two-day storm period, CoreLogic® Tornado Verification Technology monitored the tornadoes and estimated structural impacts and reconstruction costs.
The Tubbs Fire in 2017 and Camp Fire in 2018 demolished the cities of Santa Rosa and Paradise. The Camp Fire, in particular, was the single most expensive disaster for insurers worldwide that year, ultimately setting the stage for 2018 to become the fourth-costliest year for insurance companies since 1980.
Many years later, and the story of recovery for these devastated towns is still unfolding. CoreLogic is tracking the latest data on the reconstruction effort.
Understanding Risk in a Decade of Natural Catastrophes
July 6, 2020
Maiclaire Bolton Smith
Sr. Leader of Research & Content
In the past 10 years, the U.S. has seen 121 events produce damage in excess of $1 billion. Globally, this escalates with many more events around the world. From major hurricanes and floods, to annual severe weather, devastating wildfires, and even the rarer occurring earthquakes and volcanoes, in the past decade, the U.S. has seen them all.
In the latter half of the decade, the trend of catastrophic losses continued to rise with events like Hurricane Harvey (2017) and the California wildfires (2017 and 2018) among the most costly and disruptive.
Now more than ever, insurers need real-time data to understand risk on a granular level and best serve their policyholders.
FireRisk™: A Case Study for Predicting Fire Frequency to Mitigate Claims Loss
Catastrophic wildfires make national headlines, but over three-quarters of structure fires are caused by a diversity of non-weather risks.Watch Now
Part Two: Solving the Risky Business of Roofs for Claims Professionals
CoreLogic professionals identify major challenges facing claims professionals and the tools available to help insurers and adjustors tackle these issues head on.Watch Now
The Day After Disaster: Picking Up the Pieces
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and CoreLogic experts discuss catastrophic risk, tax assessment, and community recovery. This webinar was recorded October 2, 2019.Request Webinar
2019 Wildfires: Normalizing the New Abnormal
In the wake of the fires, CoreLogic hazard experts discuss the peril’s extreme loss potential and additional complexity from electrical ignitions. This webinar was recorded December 5, 2019.Request Webinar
30 Years Later: Loma Prieta Earthquake
In this webinar, we look back on the Loma Prieta Earthquake with the California Earthquake Authority (CEA), discussing today’s building stock, the losses and the importance of seismic retrofitting.Request Webinar
Wildfire: Low Risk Doesn’t Mean No Risk
CoreLogic wildfire scientists and professionals break down how to understand risk, the impact of reconstruction and demand surge and cap off with an actuarial analysis of notable wildfires against the Wildfire Risk Score.Request Webinar
Hurricanes & Housing: The Path to Fast Recovery
Hurricanes are devastating for homes and their owners. This webinar, with DIMONT and HLP, discusses tools for recovery and claims adjustment and how loan performance is affected by natural disasters.Request Webinar
Command Central: May 2019 Severe Weather
In the wake of devastating severe storms, tornadoes and flooding, the catastrophe event response team gathers in the moment to give up-to-date insights on the situation in Dayton, Kansas City and Little Rock.Request Webinar
Dynamic Valuations: The Meaning Behind the Numbers
By following market trends and comparing opinions of value, appraisers and assessors can identify new opportunities for growth in their industry.Watch Now
Assessing Property Crime Claim Risk in the age of Covid-19
All property crime risk data are not equal. A geographic-centric method of calculating crime risk can better predict the probability of property-specific claims, and is also key to unlocking overall insurance risk and loss.Watch Now
Camp Fire Recovery Update for Paradise: February 2020Learn More
The fire, which originated in the town of Paradise in Butte County, cost $16.5 billion in damages (with only $4 billion insured) and destroyed 18,804 structures, making it the single most-expensive natural disaster for insurers worldwide that year.
Tubbs Recovery Update for Santa Rosa: February 2020Learn More
After the October 2017 Tubbs Fire in Northern California, the Napa, Sonoma and Lake counties suffered devastating losses. Santa Rosa in Sonoma County was the hardest hit, with $1.2 billion of damage and 3,043 housing units destroyed.
How Demand Surge After Natural Disasters Impacts the Cost and Timing of RecoveryLearn More
Although advancements in weather forensics have made it possible to anticipate the region and severity of certain catastrophic events, it is harder to predict how demand surge may or may not affect recovery efforts following a natural disaster of any kind.
Will This Earthquake Cause Damage?Learn more
Earthquakes have the potential to cause major destruction and disruption to society. Damage caused by earthquakes can be catastrophic and can have both a humanitarian and financial impact. So when an earthquake occurs, having a prompt understanding of potential catastrophic consequences is critical for risk managers, who rely on this information to make informed decisions about how to manage the impact of disastrous events. With services like the USGS Earthquake Notification Service (ENS) providing readily available, automated earthquake notifications, obtaining information about earthquake activity around the world is now easier than ever.
Challenges Affecting Appraisals After a Natural DisasterLearn More
Each year, homeowners around the country endure catastrophic events such as floods, wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes, and earthquakes. These events can be highly destructive to homes, especially when they occur suddenly. In the aftermath of a disaster, appraisers and assessors often find themselves in a number of situations that make it challenging to form an opinion of value. Understanding these challenges is an important step to helping mitigate risk.
Explaining to Homeowners Reconstruction Costs Versus Other ValuationsLearn More
According to a recent CoreLogic Natural Hazard Press Release, the 2018 Camp and Woolsey Wildfires in California caused devastating losses between $15 and $19 billion. Because a home is most often a complete loss when it comes to wildfires, the destruction caused by these catastrophic events has been a personal and financial tragedy for many families. These and other natural hazards have forced Insurance Carriers to reevaluate the need for more accurate insurance coverage to better ensure their policyholders can be made whole again if a natural disaster should destroy their property.
[Podcast] The Whys and Lessons from the California WildfiresListen Now
Tom Jeffery and Guy Kopperud chat with Insurance Journal about what we can explain and how we can learn from the wildfires of 2017.
Supply and Demand and Other Essential Variables That Affect Building CostLearn More
Most people understand that the goal of a homeowner’s policy is to restore a home and possessions to the way they were should a catastrophic event, such as a hurricane, wreak havoc. If the building and labor cost database is not property monitored, and initial coverage and claims estimate is too low, the homeowner may not be able to fully cover the losses incurred—and that’s not a message anyone experiencing loss should hear.
5 Tips for Roof RepairLearn More
Once the wind, rain and flood waters have receded it’s time to pick up the pieces and begin the process of repairing your home. One of the most vulnerable parts of your home in any weather event is the roof. Here’s 5 tips on how to repair your roof.
The Impact of Natural Catastrophe on Mortgage DelinquencyLearn More
Catastrophes caused tremendous damage to properties causing people to lose their homes, schools and businesses. To understand the impact of natural catastrophes on mortgage delinquency, CoreLogic researched loan payment performance in Texas, after Hurricane Harvey.
The Impact of Getting ITV WrongLearn More
Most people understand that the goal of a homeowner’ policy is to restore a home and possessions to the way they were should a natural or not-so natural disaster strike. If the coverage is too low, the homeowner may not have enough to fully cover the losses incurred.
Your Go-To for Catastrophe Insights
The past few years have been catastrophic, from blazing wildfires to powerful hurricanes battering the coasts. We know clarity is important amidst the chaos, so we want to make sure you’re finding all the information you need to be up to date in one place.
Here at Hazard HQ™ you’ll find press releases, explanations of how our data works, commentary about what kind of damage we foresee, and critical thinking on what it takes to be more resilient in the face of natural hazards—be it a hurricane, volcano, earthquake, or beyond.
We know that data can get confusing, especially as we begin to put out estimates for reconstruction cost and damage in response to any hazard event. To help shed some light on a chaotic time, we wanted to help answer some frequently asked questions.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is reconstruction cost value (RCV)?
CoreLogic uses its RCV methodology which estimates the cost to rebuild the home in the event of a total loss and is not to be confused with property market values or new construction cost estimation. Reconstruction cost estimates more accurately reflect the actual cost of damage or destruction of residential buildings that would occur from hurricane-driven storm surge, since they include the cost of materials, equipment and labor needed to rebuild. These estimates also factor in geographical pricing differences (although actual land values are not included in the estimates).
What is damage?
Damage is the overall sum of money lost, both insured and uninsured.
What is loss?
Loss, otherwise known as gross loss or ground-up damage, is the insured portion of the damage sum. It is the portion that insurance companies pay out.
Why are there so many different numbers with every press release?
At CoreLogic, we break down the risk of damage cumulatively. If any hurricane hits, no matter the Category*, it will cause storm surge in the Extreme risk areas. These are homes that typically are closest to the coast and lowest in elevation, thus susceptible to every type of hurricane from Categories 1 to 5. Therefore, their risk of impact is Extreme.
Similarly, the strongest Category 5 hurricane will cause storm surge induced flooding furthest inland. It is listed in the table as Low risk because these hurricanes are the least likely to incur damage, not because they do less damage. However, because a Category 5 hurricane will also cause damage at more vulnerable properties, the cumulative amount of homes affected and the total RCV both increase. These hurricanes affect the same areas that weaker hurricanes do and more.
*Categories are measured on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS).
Why can’t you deliver an estimate of rainfall induced flooding sooner?
In order to develop an estimate about the rainfall, we first need a footprint of where we think the rain is going to fall, and we won’t know that until the storm is conclusive about where it’s going to make landfall and where that path will take it.
What can you tell us about the meteorology behind any natural hazard?
The short answer is…nothing. CoreLogic is a real estate and data analytics company. We don’t make predictions, and we’re not going to be able to tell you whether to stock up on water or canned goods or sweaters or sand bags like a weather man will.
What we can provide is a realistic assessment of how a catastrophe impacts people—their homes and businesses—and what that will look like, both insured and uninsured. We are able to do this with both our highly granular catastrophe models to determine the impact upon properties and with a team of Ph.D.-level scientists who work hard to Get The Whole Story.
- Isaias marked the earliest “I” storm on record by 8 days.
- As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to note that there may be added challenges related to preparation, evacuation, immediate response and aftermath.
- Isaias marked the earliest “I” storm on record by 8 days.
- As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to note that there may be added challenges related to preparation, evacuation, immediate response and aftermath.
- A line of severe thunderstorms that stretched across the U.S. Southeast produced deadly tornadoes in Nashville, Tennessee around 2 AM local time on March 3, 2020.
Dallas Tornado 2019
- On October 20, an EF2/EF3 tornado touched down in north Dallas for about 14 to 16 miles, according to CoreLogic Tornado Path Map technology.
M6.4 Puerto Rico Earthquake
M7.1 Ridgecrest Earthquake
May Severe Weather 2019
Contact your account executive or email firstname.lastname@example.org for the link to view the webinar.
California Wildfires 2018
- 48,390 Homes at High or Extreme Risk from Destructive California Wildfires
- Updated Analysis from CoreLogic Shows 23,044 Homes at High or Extreme Risk Inside Wildfire Perimeters
- The Camp and Woolsey Wildfires in California Cause Devastating Losses Between $15 Billion and $19 Billion
- Webinar: 2018 California Wildfires: The Story Unfolds
Hurricane Florence 2018
- Hurricane Florence Could Unleash Storm Surge Damage on Nearly 759,000 Homes in the Carolinas and Virginia
- Hurricane Florence Wind and Storm Surge Could Cause Between $3 Billion and $5 Billion in Estimated Insured Property Loss
- The Aftermath of Hurricane Florence is Estimated to Have Caused Between $20 Billion and $30 Billion in Flood and Wind Losses
- Podcast: Innovation in Housing: On the Ground During Hurricane Florence
Hurricane Harvey 2017
- Between $1 Billion and $2 Billion in Estimated Insured Property Loss from Hurricane Harvey
- Property Damage from Hurricane Nate Between $650 Million and $1.35 Billion
- More Than 50 Percent of Properties in Houston at High and Moderate Risk of Flood Are Not in Designated Flood Zones
- Video: Dr. Frank Nothaft Discusses the Potential Impact of Hurricane Harvey
- Video: Hurricane Harvey Update December 2017
Structural Risk and Valuations
Rather than rely on a standard industry percentage, get detailed intelligence on the structural risk and value of properties in your portfolio to ensure that your clients are not over or under-insured.learn more
Natural Hazard and Catastrophe
Assess your market position by accessing reports and data that give you a complete view of the risk to your portfolio.learn more
Roof Condition Solutions
CoreLogic offers tools to help you assess the roof conditions of prospective clients from your desktop.learn more