Irvine, Calif.

CoreLogic Releases Most Recent HPI Forecast Validation Report


—Analysis Reveals 12-Month, National Forecast is Within 1.04 Percent of Actual HPI Increase—

CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its latest CoreLogic HPI Forecast Validation Report that compares its 12-month CoreLogic HPI Forecast to the actual CoreLogic HPI Index. The report compares the changes in national and key CBSA-level forecasts made in June 2018 to the actual HPI index, which includes data through June 2018.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. National values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighing indices according to the number of housing units for each state.

The report showed:

  • The national forecast prediction of a 5.3 percent increase was within 1 percent of the 6.3 percent increase of the HPI for the 12-month period ending in June 2018.
  • The most accurate CBSA-level forecast was for the Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA area, which at 5.8 percent came within 0.2 percent of the actual HPI increase of 6.0 percent.
  • The widest CBSA gap was in San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA with an 8.7 percent under-estimation of actual increase (10.2 percent forecasted vs. 18.9 percent actual). CoreLogic noted that the variance in this over-valued CBSA was due to a severely constrained supply of homes for sale (1.4 months versus 4.3 months nationally) among other factors.
  • Among the 10-most accurately forecasted major MSAs, five areas had forecasts with less than a 1 percent difference from actual values.
  • Severe inventory shortages and rising interest rates impacted the forecasts of several MSAs, reflecting the overall market volatility of the past 12 months.

“The latest HPI Forecast Validation report continues to reaffirm the accuracy of our forecasts – in each of the three validations released so far, the national forecast was within 1.7 percent of the actual index values,” said Ann Regan, executive, product management for CoreLogic. “In an era of increasing market volatility and new regulatory requirements such as CECL – which requires estimating losses for the entire lifecycle of a loan - forecast accuracy like this is more important than ever.”

About CoreLogic

CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company's combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI, CoreLogic HPI Forecast and HPI are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.