CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its monthly Loan Performance Insights Report. The report shows that nationally, 3.9% of mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure) in November 2019, representing a 0.1 percentage point decline in the overall delinquency rate compared with November 2018, when it was 4%.
As of November 2019, the foreclosure inventory rate – which measures the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process – was 0.4%, unchanged from November 2018. The November 2019 foreclosure inventory rate tied the prior 12 months as the lowest for any month since at least January 1999.
Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To monitor mortgage performance comprehensively, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency, as well as transition rates, which indicate the percentage of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.
The rate for early-stage delinquencies – defined as 30 to 59 days past due – was 2% in November 2019, up from 1.9% in November 2018. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due in October 2019 was 0.6%, down from 0.7% in November 2018. The serious delinquency rate – defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure – was 1.3% in November 2019, down from 1.5% in November 2018. The serious delinquency rate has remained consistent since April 2019.
Since early-stage delinquencies can be volatile, CoreLogic also analyzes transition rates. The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due was 1% in November 2019, up from 0.8% in November 2018. By comparison, in January 2007, just before the start of the financial crisis, the current-to-30-day transition rate was 1.2%, while it peaked at 2% in November 2008.
“Natural disasters often cause spikes in mortgage delinquencies that gradually recede,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “The CoreLogic 2019 Natural Hazard Report revealed that delinquency rates in Panama City, Florida, nearly tripled in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Michael in October 2018, but fell back to trend levels by late 2019.”
No states posted a year-over-year increase in the overall delinquency rate in November 2019. The states that logged the largest annual decreases included North Carolina (down 0.7 percentage points) and District of Columbia (down 0.5 percentage points). Four other states followed with annual decreases of 0.4 percentage points.
In November 2019, 50 metropolitan areas recorded at least a small annual increase in overall delinquency rate. The largest annual increases were in the following metros: Pine Bluff, Arkansas (up 1.4 percentage points); Enid, Oklahoma (up 0.9 percentage points); Dalton, Georgia (up 0.6 percentage points); and Dubuque, Iowa (up 0.5 percentage points).
While the nation’s serious delinquency rate remains at a 14-year low, 23 metropolitan areas recorded small annual increases in their serious delinquency rates. Enid, Oklahoma, logged the highest annual gain (up 0.4 percentage points), followed by Dubuque, Iowa (up 0.2 percentage points); Hanford-Corcoran, California (up 0.2 percentage points); Panama City, Florida (up 0.2 percentage points) and Salisbury, Maryland-Delaware (up 0.2 percentage points). The remaining 18 metro areas each logged an annual increase of 0.1 percentage point.
“Overall delinquency rates remain at 20-year lows spurred on by tight underwriting standards following the onset of the Great Recession, a robust and accelerating economic cycle over the past five years and the increasing underlying health of the housing economy,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “In the Southeast, the 2018 hurricane season left higher overall delinquency rates in its wake, but the region is finally on the mend. In the Midwest, we see a somewhat different picture. Of the 50 metro areas that experienced increases in overall delinquency rates in November, nearly half were in the Midwest. Still, as mortgage rates reach a three-year low, we could expect to see stabilization across markets heading into 2020.”
The next CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report will be released on March 10, 2020, featuring data for December 2019.
For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the CoreLogic Insights Blog: www.corelogic.com/insights.
The data in this report represents foreclosure and delinquency activity reported through November 2019.
The data in this report accounts for only first liens against a property and does not include secondary liens. The delinquency, transition and foreclosure rates are measured only against homes that have an outstanding mortgage. Homes without mortgage liens are not typically subject to foreclosure and are, therefore, excluded from the analysis. Approximately one-third of homes nationally are owned outright and do not have a mortgage. CoreLogic has approximately 85% coverage of U.S. foreclosure data.
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