CoreLogic: Slow-Moving Hurricane Ian Threatens More than 1 Million Homes Along Florida Gulf with Forecasted Storm Surge Heights Up to 10 Feet

Reconstruction cost value of all homes in the Sept. 26, 2022 cone of uncertainty totals nearly $258 billion

IRVINE, Calif., September 26, 2022—CoreLogic^®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released data analysis showing 1,044,412 single-family and multifamily homes along the Florida Gulf Coast with a reconstruction cost value (RCV) of approximately $258.3 billion are at potential risk of storm surge damage from Hurricane Ian. These figures assume Hurricane Ian makes landfall as a Category 4 hurricane and are based on the Sept. 26, 2022 National Hurricane Center 11 a.m. E.T. forecast.

“Hurricane Ian has all the ingredients you need for a bad storm surge event,” said Dr. Tom Jeffery, senior hazard scientist, CoreLogic. “Due to Hurricane Ian’s slower speed and rapid intensification in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the threat of a widening wind field bringing damaging storm surge increases each day. Many homes along Florida’s western coast are at risk of storm surge inundation regardless of where the storm makes landfall, and even more homeowners will contend with heavy rainfall and hurricane-force winds throughout midweek.”

More on the storm surge risk figures

Below is a breakdown of the residential single family and multi-family homes at risk of storm surge damage. As Hurricane Ian approaches Florida, its path will become more certain and the below metropolitan areas at risk will narrow. For the most up-to-date storm surge exposure estimates, visit the CoreLogic natural hazard risk information center, Hazard HQ™, at www.hazardhq.com.

The table above indicates the total number of homes with exposure to storm surge damage given the current path of the storm. RCV figures represent the cost to completely rebuild homes in these areas, which CoreLogic estimates using detailed property characteristic data of each unique home combined with current localized costs of labor and building materials. The RCV figures assume 100% destruction of all at-risk homes and are not a representation of expected damages.

Hurricane-driven storm surge can cause significant property damage when high winds and low pressure cause water to amass inside the storm, releasing a powerful rush over land when the hurricane moves onshore. For a complete view of total storm surge risk for all Atlantic and Gulf Coast states metropolitan areas, download the 2022 CoreLogic Hurricane Report.  

Methodology

CoreLogic offers high-resolution location information solutions with a view of hazard and vulnerability consistent with the latest science for more realistic risk differentiation. The high-resolution storm surge modeling using 10m digital elevation model (DEM) and parcel-based geocoding precision from PxPoint™ facilitates this realistic view of risk. Single-family residential structures less than four stories, including mobile homes, duplexes, manufactured homes and cabins (among other non-traditional home types) are included in this analysis. Multifamily residences are also included. This is not an indication that there will be no damage to other types of structures, as there may be associated wind or debris damage and are not tabulated in this release.

Source: CoreLogic

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About CoreLogic

CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

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