Trifecta event expected to impact Louisiana with severe wind, surge inundation and extended heavy rainfall, with reconstruction cost value of all at-risk homes totaling more than $220 billion.
IRVINE, Calif., August 27, 2021—CoreLogic® a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released data analysis for single-family and multifamily homes at risk of storm surge damage from Hurricane Ida, which is expected to be a major landfalling hurricane on Sunday evening, August 29, with a projected Category 4 status. The central Louisiana coast is at risk of bearing the brunt of Hurricane Ida’s extreme storm surge potential, with a total of 941,392 homes in the Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi coastal areas exposed to storm surge damage. These homes have a combined reconstruction cost value (RCV) of approximately $220.37 billion. These estimates are based on the August 27 National Hurricane Center 5 p.m. EDT forecast.
Due to the intensity and size of Hurricane Ida’s wind field, a trifecta of impacts is expected: damaging winds between 130-156 mph, life-threatening storm surge of up to 15 feet, and extremely heavy, widespread rainfall between 10-15 inches.
“Atmospheric conditions are highly favorable for rapid intensification after Ida emerges from Cuba on Saturday into Sunday,” said Dr. Daniel Betten, meteorologist and senior leader for Weather Science at CoreLogic. “Ida will also be passing over an extremely warm loop current, which is known to contribute to the rapid intensification of hurricanes in the central Gulf of Mexico, most famously seen with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005.”
Hurricane Ida is the fourth named hurricane of the 2021 season and the first projected major hurricane at Category 4. As Ida approaches the Gulf coastline, its path will become more certain and the below metropolitan areas at risk will narrow. For the most up-to-date storm surge exposure estimates, visit the CoreLogic natural hazard risk information center, Hazard HQ™, at www.hazardhq.com.
The tables indicate the total number of homes with exposure to storm surge damage given the current path of the storm. The RCV figures assume 100 percent destruction of all at-risk homes – and represents the worst-case scenario.
Hurricane-driven storm surge can cause significant property damage when high winds and low pressure cause water to amass inside the storm, releasing a powerful rush over land when the hurricane moves onshore. For a complete view of total storm surge and hurricane wind risk for all Atlantic and Gulf Coast states metropolitan areas, download the full CoreLogic 2021 Hurricane Report.
CoreLogic offers high-resolution location information solutions with a view of hazard and vulnerability consistent with the latest science for more realistic risk differentiation. The high-resolution storm surge modeling using 10m digital elevation model (DEM) and parcel-based geocoding precision from PxPoint™ facilitates this realistic view of risk. Single-family residential structures less than four stories, including mobile homes, duplexes, manufactured homes and cabins (among other non-traditional home types) are included in this analysis. Multifamily residences are also included. This is not an indication that there will be no damage to other types of structures, as there may be associated wind or debris damage and are not tabulated in this release.
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