Integrating updated building codes and construction practices with the latest science and engineering, the U.S. Severe Convective Storm Model offers unique modeling innovations including:
- Specialized hail vulnerability functions for structures and automobiles
- A finite hazard footprint model that produces a robust representation of the focused and severe damages arising from tornadoes
- Embedded weather system modeling to simulate event occurrences of tens to hundreds of tornadoes, hail storms, and straight-line wind events spanning multiple states.
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Event Frequency Model Based Upon Adjusted Historical Data
The frequency of U.S. Severe Convective Storm events is based upon NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center public record of tornadoes and hail reports from 1950 onwards. The records contain details about each tornado event, include the tornado’s length, number of injuries and fatalities, and geographical starting and ending positions (latitude and longitude). In addition, the hail records provide date, time of occurrence, geographic position and hail size from a minimum of 0.75 inches up to 5 inches and above.
Model Validation from a Broad Array of Sources
The annual probability of a tornado touchdown upon a specific parcel of land is very small and the effectiveness of a loss model for severe convective storms requires identifying all potential sources of validation. Property Claim Services (PCS) data covering the time since 1970 provides one perspective of event frequency and severity, although increasing urbanization and insurance values limit the effectiveness of this data. Historical records of crop-hail insurance loss payments provide a complementary and useful source of validation for the hail model. There are many scientific studies of hail undertaken for suppression studies, designs of structures, crop and property insurance risk assessments and aircraft operations.
Structural Risk and Valuation
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