CoreLogic® estimates flooding at residential structures will comprise the majority of insurable loss
Cyclone Biparjoy (02A) completed its trek across the northern Indian Ocean on June 15 when it made landfall in the Indian state of Gujarat beginning at 6:30 p.m. local time (9:00 a.m. EST), southeast of the Pakistan border (Figure 1).
CoreLogic® estimated that total insurable losses from Cyclone Biparjoy will be less than $100 million.
These losses will primarily result from flood rather than wind damage. The total insurable loss estimate includes damage to residential, commercial, agricultural, and industrial lines of business. Most damage will likely be to residential properties near the coast at the point of landfall. There may be some additional losses to commercial properties near the point of landfall, as well as agricultural lines of business extending further inland.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and India Meteorological Department (IMD) estimated maximum sustained windspeeds of between 55 to 65 knots (63 to 74 mph) at landfall, classifying Cyclone Biparjoy as between a “Severe Cyclonic Storm” to “Very Severe Cyclonic Storm” on the IMD Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale. This intensity is equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
The IMD expects storm surge inundation depths between 2 to 3 meters above astronomical tide. These depths will flood low-lying areas along the Gulf of Kutch, including the Kutch, Dwarka, and Jamnagar districts in Gujarat, as well as coastal districts such as Porbandar. Over the next several days, IMD forecasts indicate light to moderate rainfall, including periods of intense downpours, across the same regions in addition to areas further inland.
Due to the position of Karachi, Pakistan, relative to the center of Cyclone Biparjoy, the impact of the wind and storm surge is expected to be less severe since the predominant wind direction in Karachi will be from the northeast as the cyclone spins counterclockwise.
Thatched, kutcha, and pucca houses are the primary building types in the coastal regions within Cyclone Biparjoy’s reach. Thatched and kutcha houses rely on readily available materials such as reeds, mud, bamboo, and wood, whereas pucca houses are constructed with more resilient materials such as brick, concrete, and metal. Cyclone Biparjoy’s wind and storm surge can completely destroy thatched and kutcha homes. Light to moderate damage for pucca homes is possible.
A significant portion of the total economic damage in India will be to infrastructure, such as utilities, transportation networks, and communication systems, which are not included in the insurable loss estimate.
CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ will continue to monitor the impact of Cyclone Biparjoy. If the total damage appears more substantial, we will release additional model data.
CONTACT: Please email HazardRisk@corelogic.com with questions regarding Cyclone Biparjoy or any CoreLogic event response notifications.
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