CoreLogic® estimates insured losses across southeastern U.S. to be less than $2 billion
CoreLogic® estimated insured losses to residential and commercial properties from wind and storm surge flooding will be less than $2 billion. Storm surge losses do not include impacts to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Precipitation-induced inland flood losses are not included. Demand surge is not included.
Modeled wind and storm surge losses by state are provided in Table 1.
|Modeled Insured Losses ($M)
Table 1: Hurricane Idalia modeled wind and storm surge insured losses by state and peril ($ Millions)
CoreLogic leveraged its Insured Exposure Database (IED) to generate the modeled losses. The IED portfolio includes buildings, contents, and time element coverages. The IED portfolio includes all residential, commercial, industrial, and auto lines of business.
Nearly half of the total modeled insured loss are concentrated in Florida; approximately 75% of that modeled loss is to the residential line of business. Fortunately, Hurricane Idalia made landfall on a fairly remote stretch of the Florida coastline. The most damaging hurricane-force winds affected relatively few residential properties, and the greatest concentration were in smaller, inland cities. However, tropical storm-force winds and other coastal flooding in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina will add to the total modeled insured losses.
CoreLogic Weather Verification Technology captured Hurricane Idalia’s wind footprint over the course of its over-land lifespan (Figure 1).
Hurricane-force winds may have affected about 75,000 homes in Florida and Georgia. The majority of the affected structures were in Florida near the point of landfall and along Hurricane Idalia’s path. Areas of southern Georgia also recorded Category 1-force winds.
Despite lower levels of exposure concentration, significant wind-borne damage is expected at residential properties exposed to at least Category 1-force hurricane winds due to less-stringent building codes and the age of the homes.
In Florida and Georgia, nearly 80% of homes exposed to hurricane-force winds were built prior to 2003, which was before the implementation of modern building codes in the states (Figure 2). Modern building codes are an effective means of mitigating hurricane-derived property damage, as noted in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian in 2022.
The average reconstruction cost value of homes in Florida and Georgia that were exposed to hurricane-force winds is less than $200,000. Despite the likelihood of damage due to building age, there will be a lower ceiling on the total cost to rebuild in these locations.
Due to Idalia’s landfall location, storm surge flooding was not widespread. However, gauges recorded historical storm tides in areas like Cedar Key, Florida. Flood insurance take-up rates in this region of Florida are low, minimizing overall insured flood losses in the state.
Other storm surge-susceptible Florida regions, such as the Clearwater Beach and the Tampa – St. Petersburg area, experienced mild to moderate coastal flooding conditions. Additionally, as Idalia approached the Atlantic Coast and moved offshore, the system created additional coastal flooding in cities such as Charleston, South Carolina. Tidal gauges in Charleston recorded major flooding. (Figure 3).
About Hurricane Idalia
Hurricane Idalia made landfall on Wednesday, Aug. 30 over Keaton Beach in Florida’s Big Bend region at 7:45 a.m. EDT (11:45 a.m. UTC) as a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained wind speeds of 125 mph (205 km/h), according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Early forecasts expected a Category 4 hurricane at landfall after the storm system underwent rapid intensification over the warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. “Rapid intensification” is defined as a 34.5 mph increase in tropical cyclone maximum sustained winds within a 24-hour period. Hurricane Ian also underwent rapid intensification prior to making landfall in 2022. Fortunately, it appears Idalia began to undergo an eye-wall replacement cycle prior to landfall, which slightly weakened the system.
After landfall, Hurricane Idalia tracked northeast across northern Florida, bypassing Tallahassee to the east before entering southern Georgia. Hurricane-force winds were recorded across northern Florida and into southern Georgia. The cities of Perry, Florida, and Valdosta, Georgia, are among the biggest population centers that were subjected to Idalia’s strongest winds. The Florida state capital city of Tallahassee was spared from the most severe and damaging winds.
By 6:00 a.m. EDT (10:00 a.m. UTC), Idalia had been downgraded to a tropical storm and moved offshore to the coast of South Carolina.
This will be CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ final update on Hurricane Idalia unless new data becomes available.
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