- Annual price growth shows the first acceleration since March 2018
- The HPI Forecast indicates prices will increase by 4.7% by April 2020
- Annual home-price growth by state varied from a 10.3% rise in Idaho to a 5% decline in North Dakota
CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for April 2019, which shows home prices rose both year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally by 3.6% from April 2018. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased by 1% in April 2019. (March 2019 data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results each month.)
Looking ahead, after several months of moderation in early 2019, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates home prices will begin to pick up and increase by 4.7% from April 2019 to April 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to decrease by 0.3% from April 2019 to May 2019. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
“The pickup in sales between March and April, has helped to counter the recent slowing in annual home-price growth,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “Mortgage rates are 0.6 percentage points below what they were one year ago and incomes are up, which has improved affordability for buyers. However, price growth has remained the highest for lower-priced homes, constraining housing choices for first-time buyers.”
According to the CoreLogic Market Condition Indicators (MCI), an analysis of housing values in the country’s 100 largest metropolitan areas based on housing stock, 37% of metropolitan areas have an overvalued housing market as of April 2019. The MCI analysis categorizes home prices in individual markets as undervalued, at value or overvalued, by comparing home prices to their long-run, sustainable levels, which are supported by local market fundamentals such as disposable income. As of April 2019, 26% of the top 100 metropolitan areas were undervalued, and 37% were at value.
When looking at only the top 50 markets based on housing stock, 42% were overvalued, 16% were undervalued and 42% were at value. The MCI analysis defines an overvalued housing market as one in which home prices are at least 10% above the long-term, sustainable level. An undervalued housing market is one in which home prices are at least 10% below the sustainable level.
During the first quarter of 2019, CoreLogic together with RTi Research of Norwalk, Connecticut, conducted an extensive survey measuring consumer-housing sentiment in high-priced markets. Eight in 10 residents in high-priced markets said home prices have continued to climb over the past three years and are still rising, although more moderately. The impact of continued price increases means new homeowners had to make compromises when purchasing. As many as 40% of respondents indicated they could not buy a home in their preferred area, and a third felt they had to purchase a smaller home than they desired.
“According to our consumer research, buyers feel that high prices are forcing them to spend more than they’d expect on a home,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “As many as one-third of buyers admit they put down a higher down payment as well.”
The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring May 2019 data, will be issued on Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About the CoreLogic Consumer Housing Sentiment Study
In the first quarter of 2019, 1,002 renters and homeowners were surveyed by CoreLogic together with RTi Research. This study is a quarterly pulse of U.S. housing market dynamics. Each quarter, the research focuses on a different issue related to current housing topics. This first quarterly study concentrated on consumer sentiment within high-priced markets. The survey has a sampling error of +/- 3.1% at the total respondent level with a 95% confidence level.
About RTi Research
RTi Research is an innovative, global market research and brand strategy consultancy headquartered in Norwalk, CT. Founded in 1979, RTi has been consistently recognized by the American Marketing Association as one of the top 50 U.S. insights companies. The company serves a broad base of leading firms in Financial Services, Consumer Goods, and Pharmaceuticals as well as partnering with leading academic centers of excellence.
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