U.S. Home Price Insights
Through December 2018 with Forecasts from January 2019
The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through November 2018 with Forecasts from December 2018 including live maps.
CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a thirty-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales.
The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sale); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.
HPI National Change: December
December 2018 National Home Prices
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 4.7 percent in December 2018 compared with December 2017 and increased month over month by 0.1 percent in December 2018 compared with November 2018 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.6 percent on a year-over-year basis from December 2018 to December 2019. Comparing the annual average HPI and HPI forecast for 2018 and 2019, average price growth is forecasted to slow from 5.8 percent to 3.4 percent. On a month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to decrease by 1 percent from December 2018 to January 2019.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
“Higher mortgage rates slowed home sales and price growth during the second half of 2018. Annual price growth peaked in March and averaged 6.4 percent during the first six months of the year. In the second half of 2018, growth moderated to 5.2 percent. For 2019, we are forecasting an average annual price growth of 3.4 percent.”
- Frank Nothaft
Chief Economist for CoreLogic
HPI & Case-Shiller Trends
This graph shows a comparison of the national year-over-year percent change for the CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index from 2000 to present month with forecasts one year into the future. We note that both the CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined tier and the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index are posting positive, but moderating year-over-year percent changes, and forecasting gains for the next year.
2018 CoreLogic Consumer Housing Sentiment Study
In 2018, CoreLogic together with RTi Research of Norwalk, Connecticut, conducted an extensive survey measuring consumer-housing sentiment, combining consumer and property insights. The study assessed attitudes toward homeownership and the driving force behind the decision to buy or rent a home. When renters were asked how interested they were in owning a home or residence, 36 percent felt homeownership would allow them to fulfill a dream and provide a place to raise a family. Conversely, 45 percent of those surveyed claimed they could not afford to buy or take on the responsibility of ownership at this time. As home prices cool, we expect renters to reassess the expense of homeownership and begin to consider buying as a viable option.
“The slowdown in the rate of home price appreciation reflects the impact of inventory shortages and growing affordability issues in many markets. On the positive side, if home-price growth continues to moderate, interest rates remain stable and household incomes rise in 2019, it could help renters and first-time buyers to take the plunge and realize the dream of owning a home.”
President and CEO of CoreLogic
HPI National and State Maps - December 2018
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states. Nationally, the year-over-year home price changed by 4.7 percent. All states but for Louisiana and North Dakota experienced increases since December 2017. The states with the highest increases year-over-year were: Idaho (11.7%), Nevada (10.8%) and Utah (8.7%).
HPI Top 10 Metros Change
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
These large cities continue to experience price increases, with Las Vegas leading the way at 11.3 percent year over year.
Market Conditions Indicators (MCI) Metro Area Maps - December 2018
HPI by CBSA - January 2000
In an analysis of the country’s 100 largest metropolitan areas based on housing stock, 33 percent of cities have an overvalued housing stock as of December 2018, according to CoreLogic Market Conditions Indicators (MCI) data. The MCI analysis categorizes home prices in individual markets as undervalued, at value or overvalued by comparing home prices to their long-run, sustainable levels, which are supported by local market fundamentals such as disposable income. Also, as of December, 27 percent of the top 100 metropolitan areas were undervalued and 40 percent were at value. When looking at only the top 50 markets based on housing stock, 40 percent were overvalued, 18 percent were undervalued and 42 percent were at value. The MCI analysis defines an overvalued housing market as one in which home prices are at least 10 percent higher than the long-term, sustainable level, while an undervalued housing market is one in which home prices are at least 10 percent below the sustainable level.
CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.
CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.
Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—“Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, CBSA and ZIP code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index.
About The 2018 CoreLogic Consumer Housing Sentiment Study
Nationwide survey of 3001 renters and homeowners conducted in first quarter of 2018 by CoreLogic together with RTi Research. The survey has a sampling error of +/- 1.8 percent at the total respondent level with a 95 percent confidence level.
About RTi Research
RTi Research is an innovative, global market research and brand strategy consultancy headquartered in Norwalk, CT. Founded in 1979, RTi has been consistently recognized by the American Marketing Association as one of the top 50 U.S. insights companies. The company serves a broad base of leading firms in Financial Services, Consumer Goods, and Pharmaceuticals as well as partnering with leading academic centers of excellence.
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