Through October 2023 With Forecasts Through October 2024
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 4.7% in October 2023 compared with October 2022. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.2% in October 2023 compared with September 2023 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will not change on a month-over-month basis (0.0%) from October 2023 to November 2023 and increase on a year-over-year basis by 2.9% from October 2023 to October 2024.
Home Price Gains Continue to Rebound in October
U.S. single-family home price growth continued to increase modestly in October, posting a 4.7% year-over-year increase. On a regional level, the Northeast again showed the biggest price rebound. The top five states with the highest annual appreciation in October are in that area of the country, with growth ranging from 10.3% in Connecticut to 9.3% in Maine and New Hampshire. The Northeast could be enjoying renewed home price gains in part due to a largely hybrid American workforce, in which employees need to be relatively close to major urban areas to allow for commutes to the office a few times per week.
“Home price growth maintained its upward momentum in October, which continues to reflect gains from the strong spring season and contrasts with last year’s home price declines. But even with high mortgage rates, October’s price gains line up with historical trends and speak to the strength of some potential buyers’ purchasing power, as they continue to outnumber available homes for sale. Metros that are seeing relatively stronger price gains are those with higher job growth, as well as those with an influx of higher-income, in-migrating households.”
Dr. Selma Hepp
– Chief Economist for CoreLogic
HPI National and State Maps – October 2023
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
Nationally, home prices increased by 4.7% year over year in October. Idaho, Montana, Texas and Utah saw home price declines. The states with the highest increases year over year were Connecticut (10.3%), New Jersey (9.9%) and Rhode Island (9.7%).
HPI Top 10 Metros Change
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states. Below is a look at home price changes in large U.S. metros in October, with Miami again posting the largest gain at 8.8% year over year.
Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL (70%-plus probability) is at a very high risk of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA; Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA; West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL and Deltona-Daytona-Beach-Ormond Beach, FL are also at very high risk for price declines.
CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.
CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.
Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About Market Risk Indicator
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
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