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Home / Intelligence / Blogs / Hazard HQ / Typhoon Mawar (02W) Passes Between Guam and Rota

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Schneyer
Jon Schneyer
Senior Catastrophe Response Manager
View Profile
  • May 24, 2023

Typhoon Mawar (02W) Passes Between Guam and Rota

Typhoon Mawar (02W) passed between the U.S. territory of Guam and Rota, the southernmost island of the Northern Mariana Islands, on Wednesday, May 24 between 7:00-8:00 p.m. local time (9:00-10:00 a.m. GMT). According to the National Weather Service (NWS) station in Guam, the southern eyewall of Mawar pivoted over Guam.

Maximum sustained windspeeds of 140 mph were estimated via radar near the eyewall; typhoon-force winds (greater than 74 mph) extended approximately 45 miles, spanning the entire island (Figure 1). The storm continues to track west-northwest at 8 mph, which will subject buildings in Guam and Rota to typhoon-force winds for an extended period of time.

guam typhoon forecast path
Figure 1: Forecast Track and Wind Distribution for Typhoon Mawar, According to the National Weather Service (NWS) Advisory #18
Source: NWS 2023
© 2023 CoreLogic,Inc., All rights reserved.

Typhoon Mawar is the equivalent of a Category 4 tropical cyclone on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale.

In addition to Category 4 winds, Mawar brought torrential downpours and life-threatening storm surge to Guam. The island of Guam is expecting to see 10 to 15 inches of rain over a 24-hour period, with localized instances of up to 25 inches. Flash flooding and coastal erosion are possible along the coastline. Storm surge depths of 5 to 10 feet are possible on Guam’s northern tip, Ritidian Point. In Apra Harbor, surge depths up to 4 feet are expected.

Tropical storm conditions (wind speeds greater than 39 mph) are possible in Tinian and Saipan to the north.

The Building Landscape in Guam

Typhoon-force winds will cause considerable damage to buildings constructed with lighter materials, including extensive damage to non-concrete roofs. Buildings constructed using concrete will be less vulnerable to typhoon-force winds.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau 2020 Decennial Census of Island Areas, there are approximately 43,300 occupied housing units in Guam. Guam adopted more advanced residential building code requirements in the mid-20th century following Typhoon Karen in 1962 and Typhoon Pamela in 1976. Guam established a minimum basic wind load design speed requirement of 155 mph for residential structures, which proved effective during Typhoon Omar in 1992. Other design features in the Guam building codes include more resilient construction materials (e.g., concrete) and window/door protections (e.g., hurricane shutters). These advanced building code standards should mitigate some residential damage in Guam.

The primary economic sectors in Guam are military spending and tourism. Guam is home to two U.S. military bases; a naval base in Santa Rita and the Andersen Air Force Base in Yigo. The Guam Army National Guard has facilities on the island as well. The tourism industry generates approximately $260 million in government revenue, according to the Guam Visitors Bureau. Guam is home to multiple luxury resorts and hotels, particularly along the coastline where wind and storm surge was the most severe.

Notable Typhoons in Guam

There are several historical examples of typhoon activity resulting in extensive damage to Guam.

In December 2002, Guam sustained heavy damage when Typhoon Pongsona passed between Guam and Rota with maximum sustained windspeeds of 144 mph and gusts up to 173 mph, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) NWS Service Assessment. Damage totals in Guam from Typhoon Pongsona exceeded $700 million (in 2003 dollars). In 1997, Super Typhoon Paka generated windspeeds of 185 mph on the island, according to the NWS post-event assessment. The damages resulting from this event totaled approximately $580 million (in 1998 dollars).

Future Updates

Typhoon Mawar is forecasted to continue west-northwest. Typhoon-force winds are expected to remain over the next several days. The long-term forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Warning #18 indicates that Mawar will travel towards the northern Filipino islands and Taiwan.

CoreLogic Command Central will continue to monitor Typhoon Mawar. If Typhoon Mawar makes another landfall in Taiwan, the Philippines or Japan, CoreLogic Command Central may issue proxy events and modeled industry loss estimates from its Asia Typhoon Model.

Visit www.hazardhq.com for updates and information on catastrophes across the globe.

About CoreLogic

CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com

Source

The data and other information provided is only for the use of the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data and information may not be resold, republished, modified, used in any unlawful manner, or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written CoreLogic permission. Any CoreLogic data or information used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic®, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany the first reference of the data or information. If the data or information is illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic® trademark must be included on the screen or website. The data and information is compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources and CoreLogic makes no representation or warranty as to the completeness or accuracy of the data and information and assumes no responsibility whatsoever for the data and information or any reliance thereon.

CORELOGIC® and the CoreLogic logo are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Contact

For questions regarding Typhoon Mawar or any CoreLogic event response notifications, please email hazardrisk@corelogic.com.

  • Category: Blogs, Hazard HQ, Intelligence
  • Tags: Hazard HQ, Hurricane Risk, Natural Hazard, Typhoon Risk
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Schneyer
Jon Schneyer
Senior Catastrophe Response Manager
View Profile

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