Data Through Q2 2022
Introduction
The CoreLogic Homeowner Equity Insights report, is published quarterly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes negative equity share and average equity gains. The report features an interactive view of the data using digital maps to examine CoreLogic homeowner equity analysis through the second quarter of 2022.
Negative equity, often referred to as being “underwater” or “upside down,” applies to borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Negative equity can occur because of a decline in home value, an increase in mortgage debt or both.
This data only includes properties with a mortgage. Non-mortgaged properties (that are owned outright) are not included.
Homeowner Equity Q2 2022
CoreLogic analysis shows U.S. homeowners with mortgages (roughly 63% of all properties*) have seen their equity increase by a total of over $3.6 trillion since the second quarter of 2021, a gain of 27.8% year over year.
*Homeownership mortgage source: 2020 American Community Survey.
Negative Equity Falls
In the second quarter of 2022, the total number of mortgaged residential properties with negative equity decreased by 7% from the first quarter of 2022 to 1 million homes, or 1.8% of all mortgaged properties. On a year-over-year basis, negative equity fell by 18% from 1.3 million homes, or 2.3% of all mortgaged properties, in the second quarter of 2021.
Because home equity is affected by home price changes, borrowers with equity positions near (+/- 5%) the negative equity cutoff are most likely to move out of or into negative equity as prices change, respectively. Looking at the second quarter of 2022 book of mortgages, if home prices increase by 5%, 116,000 homes would regain equity; if home prices decline by 5%,148,000 would fall underwater. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast TM projects home prices will increase by 4.3% from June 2022 to June 2023.
Fifteen States Post Higher Annual Home Equity Gains Than U.S. Average in Q2 2022
Although U.S. home price growth slowed on an annual basis in the second quarter of 2022, homeowners continued to gain near-record equity from the second quarter of 2021, with 15 states posting higher gains than the national average, led by Hawaii, California and Florida. The total average equity per borrower has now reached almost $300,000, the highest in the data series. Home price growth and the refinance boom of the last two years have helped bring down the national average loan-to-value ratio to 42%, the lowest in the data series since 2010.
National Aggregate Value of Negative Equity: Q2 2022
The national aggregate value of negative equity was approximately $302.7 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2022. This is up quarter over quarter by approximately $3.2 billion, or 1.1%, from $299.5 billion in the first quarter of 2022 and up year over year by approximately $31.9 billion, or 11.8%, from $270.8 billion in the second quarter of 2021.
Negative equity peaked at 26% of mortgaged residential properties in the fourth quarter of 2009, based on the CoreLogic equity data analysis which began in the third quarter of 2009.
“For many households, home equity is the only source of wealth creation. As a result, recent record gains in equity and record declines in loan-to-value ratios will provide many owners with a financial buffer in case economic conditions worsen. In addition, record equity continues to provide fuel for housing demand, particularly if households are relocating to more affordable areas.”
–Selma Hepp
interim lead of the Office of the Chief Economist
National Homeowner Equity
In the second quarter of 2022, the average homeowner gained approximately $60,200 in equity during the past year.
Hawaii, California and Florida experienced the largest average equity gains at $129,800, $117,000 and $100,000 respectively. Washington, D.C. and Iowa experienced the lowest average equity gains in the second quarter of 2022, at $16,900 and $17,600 respectively.
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10 Select Metros Change
CoreLogic provides homeowner equity data at the metropolitan level, in this graphic 10 of the largest cities, by housing stock are depicted.
Negative equity has seen a recent decrease across the country. Las Vegas, Los Angeles and San Francisco are the least challenged, with Negative Equity Share of all mortgages at 0.6%.
Loan-to-Value Ratio (LTV)
The graph represents National Homeowner Equity Distribution across multiple LTV Segments.
Summary
CoreLogic began reporting homeowner equity data in the first quarter of 2010; at that time, the equity picture for homeowners was rather bleak in the United States. Since then, many homes have regained equity and the outstanding balance on the majority of mortgages in this country are now equal to or in a positive position when compared to their loan balance.
CoreLogic will continue to report on homeowner equity as it continues to adjust in communities and states across the country. To learn more about homeowner equity, visit the CoreLogic Insights page on www.corelogic.com.
Methodology
The amount of equity for each property is determined by comparing the estimated current value of the property against the mortgage debt outstanding (MDO). If the MDO is greater than the estimated value, then the property is determined to be in a negative equity position. If the estimated value is greater than the MDO, then the property is determined to be in a positive equity position. The data is first generated at the property level and aggregated to higher levels of geography. CoreLogic uses public record data as the source of the MDO, which includes more than 50 million first- and second-mortgage liens, and is adjusted for amortization and home equity utilization in order to capture the true level of MDO for each property. Only data for mortgaged residential properties that have a current estimated value are included. There are several states or jurisdictions where the public record, current value or mortgage data coverage is thin and have been excluded from the analysis. These instances account for fewer than 5% of the total U.S. population. The percentage of homeowners with a mortgage is from the 2019 American Community Survey. Data for the previous quarter was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
Source: CoreLogic
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About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visitwww.corelogic.com.
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Contact
For more information, please email Robin Wachner at newsmedia@corelogic.com
