Higher Mortgage Rates Lead to Strong Lock-In Effect
November 9, 2022
With current mortgage rates at over 6%, the vast majority (99%) of outstanding mortgage debt has a lower mortgage rate locked in.
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Molly Boesel holds the position of principal, economist in the Office of the Chief Economist at CoreLogic. She is responsible for analyzing and forecasting housing and mortgage market trends. She has a depth of expertise in mortgage market analysis, model development and risk analysis in the housing finance industry.
Boesel previously worked at both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. While at Fannie Mae she provided Fannie Mae’s official monthly forecast for the economy, housing market, and mortgage market stocks and flows, and provided analyses on trends in the mortgage market, including characteristics of borrowers, homeowners, and mortgage products. She earned her bachelor’s degree in economics from James Madison University and her master’s degree in consumer economics and housing from Cornell University.
With current mortgage rates at over 6%, the vast majority (99%) of outstanding mortgage debt has a lower mortgage rate locked in.
At the end of the first quarter of 2022, the average borrower had $280,000 in home equity — this is a gain of $64,000 over the past year and $125,000 over the past five years. This has led to increased cash-out refinancing and remodeling activity.
Home buying has remained relatively affordable due to historically low mortgage interest rates, but increasing mortgage rates are cutting into buyer affordability.
The national overall mortgage delinquency rate dropped to 3.2% in February, another historic low.
National home prices increased 20.9% year over year in March 2022, according to the latest CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®️) Report . The March 2022 HPI gain was up from the March 2021 gain of 11.1% and was the highest 12-month growth in the U.S. index since the series began in 1976.
In January 2022, 3.3% of home mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure)[1], which was a 2.3-percentage point decrease from January 2021 according to the latest CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report .