Introduction

The CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights report features an interactive view of our mortgage performance analysis through October 2019.

Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes transition rates between states of delinquency and separate breakouts for 120+ day delinquency.

“Home price growth builds homeowner equity and reduces the likelihood of a loan entering foreclosure,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “The national CoreLogic Home Price Index recorded a 3.3% annual rise in values through October 2019, and price growth was the primary driver of the $5,300 average gain in equity reported in the latest CoreLogic Home Equity Report.”

- Dr. Frank Nothaft
Chief Economist for CoreLogic

30 Days or More Delinquent - National

The 30 days or more delinquency rate for October 2019 was 3.7%.

In October 2019, 3.7% of mortgages were delinquent by at least 30 days or more including those in foreclosure.

This represents a 0.4% decline in the overall delinquency rate compared with October 2018.

30 Plus Delinquency

Delinquency Hotspots

No states posted a year-over-year increase in the overall delinquency rate in October 2019. The states that logged the largest annual decreases included North Carolina (down 0.9 percentage points) and Mississippi (down 0.8 percentage points). Eight other states followed with annual decreases of 0.6 percentage points.

In October 2019, eight metropolitan areas in the Midwest and South recorded small annual increases in overall delinquency rates. The largest annual increases in October 2019 were in the following metros: Pine Bluff, Arkansas (1.0 percentage points); Dubuque, Iowa (0.2 percentage points) and Rockford, Illinois (0.2 percentage points). Five other metros were up 0.1 percentage points: Columbus, Indiana; Kokomo, Indiana; Manhattan, Kansas; Oshkosh-Neenah, Wisconsin and La Crosse-Onalaska, Wisconsin-Minnesota.

While the nation’s serious delinquency rate remains at a 14-year low, 14 metropolitan areas recorded small annual increases in their serious delinquency rates. Metros with the largest increases were Panama City, Florida (0.4 percentage points) and Dubuque, Iowa (0.2 percentage points). The remaining 12 metro areas each logged an annual increase of 0.1 percentage point.

Consumer Research

“National foreclosure and serious delinquency rates have remained fixed at record lows for at least the last six months. However, as markets can be much more volatile at the metro level, both late-stage delinquencies and foreclosures have continued to increase at this level in the Midwest and Southern regions of the country.”

- Frank Martell
President and CEO of CoreLogic

Loan Performance - National

CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency to more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance.

As of October 2019, the foreclosure inventory rate was 0.4%, down 0.1% from October 2018.

Transition Rates - National

CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30-days past due was 0.7% in October 2019, unchanged from October 2018. By comparison, in January 2007, just before the start of the financial crisis, the current-to-30-day transition rate was 1.2% and peaked in November 2008 at 2%.

National Transition Rate
Delinquency By State

Serious Delinquency - State

Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due including loans in foreclosure.

No states saw an annual increase in Serious Delinquency Rate

Serious Delinquency – Metropolitan Areas

Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due including loans in foreclosure.

There were 14 metropolitan areas where the Serious Delinquency Rate increased.

There were 56 metropolitan areas where the Serious Delinquency Rate remained the same.

All the remaining metropolitan areas saw the Serious Delinquency Rate decrease.

Delinquency CBSA Map

Summary

Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

The nation's overall delinquency rate was the lowest for an October in at least 20 years. The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30-days past due was 0.7% in October 2019, unchanged from October 2018.

By comparison, in January 2007, just before the start of the financial crisis, the current-to-30-day transition rate was 1.2% and peaked in November 2008 at 2%.

Despite recent stress in some areas of the country, mortgage delinquency rates continue to stay at near-record lows.

Methodology

The data in this report represents foreclosure and delinquency activity reported through September 2019. The data in this report accounts for only first liens against a property and does not include secondary liens. The delinquency, transition, and foreclosure rates are measured only against homes that have an outstanding mortgage. Homes without mortgage liens are not typically subject to foreclosure and are, therefore, excluded from the analysis. Approximately one-third of homes nationally are owned outright and do not have a mortgage. CoreLogic has approximately 85 percent coverage of U.S. foreclosure data.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided is for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast. This data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data is illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. This data is compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.


About CoreLogic

CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific.

For more information, please visit corelogic.com.

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For more information, please email Allyse Sanchez at allyse@ink-co.com.