Loan Performance Insights
Through March 2020
The CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights report features an interactive view of our mortgage performance analysis through March 2020.
Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.
The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes transition rates between states of delinquency and separate breakouts for 120+ day delinquency.
“The COVID-19 pandemic has shocked our economic system and led to unprecedented job loss, reducing the ability of affected families to make their monthly mortgage payments. The latest forecast from the CoreLogic Home Price Index shows prices declining in 41 states through April 2021, potentially erasing home equity and increasing foreclosure risk.”
- Dr. Frank Nothaft
Chief Economist for CoreLogic
30 Days or More Delinquent - National
The 30 days or more delinquency rate for March 2020 was 3.6%.
In March 2020, 3.6% of mortgages were delinquent by at least 30 days or more including those in foreclosure.
This represents a 0.4% decline in the overall delinquency rate compared with March 2019.
Local economies fueled by tourism, transportation, hospitality, food service and media and entertainment industries were among the first to be impacted by widespread job losses. For example, both Hawaii and Nevada were hit hard by the collapse in tourism, and in Washington, where the first U.S. cases of COVID-19 were confirmed. In early May, these states experienced the highest shares of continuing claims for unemployment insurance, as compared to the state’s labor force. While the full impact of climbing unemployment in these local markets has yet to be seen, the early signs of unsteadiness could leave these areas more susceptible to delinquency gains in the coming months.
“The first three months of 2020 reflected one of the strongest quarters for U.S. mortgage performance in recent history. The build-up in home equity over the past several years, government stimulus programs, and lower borrowing costs have helped cushion homeowners from the initial financial shock of the pandemic and kept widespread delinquencies at bay during the first months of the recession. Looking ahead, we can expect a more widespread impact on U.S. delinquency rates as the economic toll of elevated unemployment and shelter-in-place orders becomes more evident.”
- Frank Martell
President and CEO of CoreLogic
Loan Performance - National
CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency to more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance.
As of March 2020, the foreclosure inventory rate was 0.4%, unchanged from March 2019. March’s foreclosure inventory rate tied the prior 16 months as the lowest for any month since at least January 1999.
Transition Rates - National
CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.
The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30-days past due was 1% in March 2020, up from 0.9% in March 2019. By comparison, in January 2007, just before the start of the financial crisis, the current-to-30-day transition rate was 1.2% and peaked in November 2008 at 2%.
Serious Delinquency – Metropolitan Areas
Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due including loans in foreclosure.
There were 4 metropolitan areas where the Serious Delinquency Rate increased.
There were 30 metropolitan areas where the Serious Delinquency Rate remained the same.
All the remaining metropolitan areas saw the Serious Delinquency Rate decrease.
The nation’s overall delinquency rate remained at its lowest level in at least 20 years in March. The rate for early-stage delinquencies – defined as 30 to 59 days past due – was 1.9% in March 2020, down from 2% in March 2019. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due in March 2020 was 0.6%, unchanged from March 2019. The serious delinquency rate – defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure – was 1.2% in March 2020, down from 1.4% in March 2019.
In the months leading up to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, U.S. mortgage performance was showing sustained improvement. In March — one month after the U.S. annual unemployment rate hit a 50-year low — the nation's overall delinquency rate continued to decline year over year, following a trend that began in January 2018. However, the job market began its downward spiral in March as shelter-in-place orders went into effect, thus increasing the likelihood of borrowers falling behind on their mortgage payments.
The data in The CoreLogic LPI report represents foreclosure and delinquency activity reported through March 2020.
he data in this report accounts for only first liens against a property and does not include secondary liens. The delinquency, transition and foreclosure rates are measured only against homes that have an outstanding mortgage. Homes without mortgage liens are not subject to foreclosure and are, therefore, excluded from the analysis. Approximately one-third of homes nationally are owned outright and do not have a mortgage. CoreLogic has approximately 75% coverage of U.S. foreclosure data.
The data provided is for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast. This data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data is illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. This data is compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.
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